2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Price: | 4.21 | EPS | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 23 | P/E | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 96 | P/FCF | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 194 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 290 | TEV/EBIT | 0.0x | 0.0x |
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Reading International (RDI) - LONG
RDI SUMMARY |
Comments |
|
Share price ($) |
$4.21 |
|
Shares (M) |
22.8 |
|
Market cap |
95.8 |
|
+ Debt |
226.7 |
|
- Cash + equivalents |
32.5 |
|
Enterprise value |
290.0 |
|
|
|
|
Sum-of-the-parts valuation |
|
|
1. Cinema segment |
179.6 |
6x 2010 EBITDA (conservative relative to cinema comps) |
2. Real estate |
303.1 |
25% discount to conservative asset valuations |
3. Corporate G&A unallocated |
(87.5) |
$12.5M * 7x - conservative as will decline further over time (and ignores tax benefits) |
4. NOLs |
0.0 |
$26.5 in US (expiring 2025-2029), $58.5M Aus no expiry, $17.5 NZ no expiry |
5. Long term leaseholds |
9.0 |
50% of BV, inc. East village cinema with option to purchase lease for $5.9M in 2020 |
6. Joint venture interests |
8.1 |
75% of BV, inc. 33% interest in Mt Gravatt cinema complex in Brisbane |
Total |
412.3 |
|
|
|
|
Equity value |
218.1 |
|
Equity value per share |
$9.58 |
|
Upside |
128% |
|
Real estate segment
RDI owns real estate in Australia, New Zealand and the US. RDI's portfolio consists of many land parcels at various stages of development in addition to income generating properties, which are primarily retail centers with an RDI cinema often as a key tenant.
Valuing the portfolio is complex as the properties are in widely varying degrees of development: fully developed and income generating (e.g. Indooroopily office building), income generating yet underutilized (e.g. Union Square Theater), in development but soon to be income generating (e.g. Courtenay Central Phase II) and undeveloped land (e.g. Manakau). Using multiple methodologies including comparables, recent transactions, local real estate expert input and estimates of income on certain properties, I value the real estate at ~$404M. I then discount this value by 25% to arrive at a value of $303M, which is itself greater than the current EV (before even considering the cinema segment). As to the 25% discount, it is somewhat arbitrary but the purpose is to account for the uncertainty of the timing and the proceeds/income RDI will receive from land and underutilized properties. Unfortunately, there is no property-level NOI detail in the filings. Note: The properties and their estimated values are listed as an appendix.
Land in development:
This represents the bulk of RDI's real estate portfolio. It primarily consists of lots in urban locations in Australia and New Zealand. The lots are in various development stages and a number of them are adjacent to existing RDI income-generating properties. The book values are mostly well below a conservative valuation. The value of RDI's undeveloped real estate has achieved unrealized appreciation not only from rising property values over time but from rezoning, government and council approvals, etc. The largest land development parcel is Burwood Square: a 51 acre lot in Melbourne that has been zoned for commercial, retail and residential use. It is currently in a transaction process and I expect an announcement in the next 3-6 months (transaction will likely include a sale of the site's 34-acre residential plot and a development plan). Local property experts confirm Burwood's value at ~$70-80M. Moonee Ponds, another key Melbourne land development parcel valued at ~$30M, could also form part of this transaction. Moreover, a number of the land projects in development (e.g. Newmarket phase II, Courtenay Central phase II and Auburn phase II) will become income generating in the next 1-3 years.
Income-generating real estate:
Even with much of its real estate not generating income, 2010 EBITDA from RDI's real estate segment was ~$15M on $25M revenue. The 2010 EBITDA number is understated given that the opex includes costs associated with land in development. There is also incremental opportunity from redeveloping/expanding/converting some of the underutilized operating assets as RDI did with its conversion of the Sutton Hill Cinema on 57th St in NYC into a luxury condo building known as Place 57. RDI recently announced that it is considering selling its 75% stake of the property that is currently the site of RDI's Cinema 123 (Manhattan, 3rd Ave between 59th & 60th), estimated proceeds to RDI are $25-30M. The Company also announced that it is considering JV partners to develop its underutilized, prime Union Square property. Other redevelopment opportunities include the Minetta Lane Theater in NYC and the Royal George Theater in Chicago.
Cinema/live theater exhibition segment
RDI has 58 cinemas (462 screens) across the US, Australia and New Zealand. The majority of these cinemas are wholly owned and managed by RDI. RDI's cinema/theater portfolio includes:
I would have thought that 'in-home' entertainment systems, DVDs and the internet etc. would be rendering cinemas things of the past. However, to date this is not the case. Results continue to highlight that consumers spend entertainment budget outside-home, and cinemas remain an affordable option. A threat to the key competitive advantage of cinemas is that distributors release films through multiple channels simultaneously. However, industry experts suggest this is unlikely in the near to medium term because box-office success drives 'downstream' viewing demand and value. Moreover, cinema exhibitors, including RDI, are responding to the risks by switching screens to digital and equipping certain cinemas with 3D capabilities.
Cinemas also proved particularly resilient during the economic downturn and RDI's cinema segment continued to perform strongly in 2010. Cinema segment 2010 EBITDA was ~$30M on ~$211M revenue.
RDI cinema segment |
FY2010 |
Revenue |
211.1 |
Operating expenses |
178.3 |
General & administrative expenses |
2.9 |
EBITDA |
29.9 |
I expect the cinema segment to generate reasonably stable cash flow in the years ahead, although it is unlikely to witness growth. In terms of value, I apply a 6x multiple to RDI EBITDA, yielding a value of ~$180M. Cinema comparables trade at higher multiples but RDI should arguably trade at a small discount because of its relative lack of scale.
Comparable |
EV/ LTM EBITDA |
Carmike Cinemas (CKEC) |
7.4 |
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) |
8.0 |
Cineplex (TSE: CGX) |
10.8 |
Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) |
8.9 |
Debt: RDI has minimal financial risk
I would usually delve in to more detail about the debt but in this case even though RDI has ~$227M in debt, there is minimal financial risk. RDI has significant unencumbered quality assets (including Burwood which is unencumbered) that, if required, could be encumbered to refinance the current debt or sold to pay down debt. Moreover, the Company will use some proceeds from the Burwood transaction to pay down debt.
Bloated corporate G&A
Corporate G&A of $13.7M in 2010 is too high although substantial legal costs (>$1M per year) in recent years (associated with the Malulani JV and the IRS settlement) are no longer recurring. The Company is also cutting costs by moving its back office to Wellington, NZ. If the Company were split up or sold, much of the G&A would be eliminated although I am not expecting that. Some of this G&A should be allocated across the segments and primarily to real estate as management time and legal costs are spent more on that segment. To incorporate the corporate G&A in my valuation, I apply a multiple of 7x to a normalized level of $12.5M equaling -$87.5M which I remove from the value. I ignore the positive tax effects of these future expenses.
Ownership structure, corporate governance and management
There is hair in this story and it primarily involves the CEO, James Cotter, and the ownership structure. The stock has a dual class structure; class A non-voting stock (21.5M shares) and class B voting stock (1.2M shares). CEO Cotter owns 70% of the class B stock and has full control. The 10K risk section explicitly states that Cotter has the power to "take actions that might be desirable to Mr. Cotter but not to other stockholders." Cotter pays himself well and there have been related-party transactions over the years. His three children, all ex-lawyers, are also on the payroll but they do have legitimate roles at the Company.
I do not like the related-party transactions or the controlling structure, which is an impediment to activism. I believe Cotter's control coupled with the complexity of the business are the main reasons why the stock trades at $4.21. However, Cotter and his children do own ~25% stock. This ownership stake keeps their long-term interests aligned with shareholders as it is a major family asset. Moreover, I have been reasonably satisfied with Cotter and his team's operating ability as both the cinema and real estate segments have achieved sizeable increases in economic value over the past decade. That said, this will not be very evident in the financials until value is unlocked via asset sales/developments.
Cotter is 73 years old. He is a highly un-promotional CEO; there are no conference calls and zero analyst coverage. While Cotter might not greatly care about the immediate share price, he did imply at the annual meeting that he is frustrated by it and indicated that he will monetize certain assets. His decision to sell Burwood and Cinema 123 and engage in multiple other transactions appears to be a sign of things to come. He also did a small ($250K) buyback in 2010 and additional buybacks are an option once Burwood is sold. Cotter also announced that the Company will present at an investor conference later this year.
Other points
Risks
Appendix
Property Location Status Brief description Gross BV ($USM) FMV (local currency) FMV (US$M) Auburn Sydney, Australia In use 57K sq ft multiplex cinema; 57K sq ft retail space with additional parking facility 36.5 36.0 38.5 Belmont ETRC Perth, Australia In use 49K sq ft multiplex cinema and 19K sq ft retail tenant space 15.3 17.0 18.2 Newmarket ETRC Brisbane, Australia In use 93k sq ft retail center 43.8 46.0 49.2 Melbourne office building Melbourne, Australia In use RDI Australia HQ; remainder leased out N/A 2.0 2.1 Indooroopily office building Brisbane, Australia In use Luxury commercial office building recently leased to the city of Brisbane 13.4 17.0 18.2 Maitland cinema Maitland, Australia In use 4 screen cinema 2.4 2.2 2.4 Invercargill cinema Invercargill, NZ In use 20K sq ft cinema; 7K sq foot retail 3.5 4.3 3.5 Courtenay Central Wellington, NZ In use 68k sq ft multiplex; 38K sq ft retail space; 245K sq ft parking garage 24.4 44.0 36.3 Napier cinema Napier, NZ In use Cinema 3.1 3.8 3.1 Rotorua Cinema Rotorua, NZ In use Cinema 2.8 3.4 2.8 Lake Taupo Motel NZ In use Motel and residence and small land parcel 4.3 5.2 4.3 Cinemas 1,2,3 New York, US In use 75% interest in 24K sq ft property on 3rd Ave b/w 59th & 60th; zoning enables residential/commercial development 23.6 26.3 26.3 Union Square Theater New York, US In use Includes 17K sq ft theater, 21K sq ft retail; not restricted to cinema 9.2 26.0 26.0 Minetta Lane New York, US In use 4,700 sq ft lot; famous theater in Greenwich Village; eventually redeveloped 8.3 9.0 9.0 Orpheum New York, US In use NYC Theater - redevelopment oportunity 3.4 4.0 4.0 Royal George Chicago, US In use 22K sq ft theater; 37K sq ft retail space; parking, office space 3.4 6.0 6.0 IN DEVELOPMENT Burwood Square Melbourne, Australia In development/for sale 51 acre parcel in inner Melbourne zoned for residential, commercial & retail development 52.8 70.0 74.9 Moonee Ponds Melbourne, Australia In development/ for sale 144K sq ft parcel of land recently re-zoned for commercial/retail purposes 14.0 27.0 28.9 Auburn Phase II Sydney, Australia In development 93K sq ft land parcel. Re-zoning application for additional retail/commercial center 2.1 8.0 8.6 Newmarket phase II Brisbane, Australia In development Multiplex approved but most likely will be converted to additional retail space 2.8 10.0 10.7 Taringa Brisbane, Australia In sale process Transaction process 4.9 3.3 3.5 Courtenay Central phase II Wellington, NZ In development Adjacent to Courtenay Central; Approval for additional 162K sq ft retail development 3.3 12.0 9.9 Manukau, Auckland, NZ Auckland, NZ In development 70 acre undeveloped parcel in Sth Auckland. Commercial rezoning expected 2013. 13.9 19.0 15.7 Lake Taupo Land NZ In development Approval for 20K square foot residential development; site listed for sale 2.0 2.4 2.0
I expect a Burwood transaction announcement in the next 3-6 months.
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