RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS RYAM
February 10, 2022 - 10:51am EST by
member
| 2022 | 2023 | ||||||
| Price: | 5.24 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 64 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 334 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 526 | EBIT | 100 | 200 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 860 | TEV/EBIT | 8.6 | 4.3 | |||
- RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS RYAM 06/13/2023
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- RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS RYAM 08/20/2014
- RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS RYAM equity / debt 09/23/2023
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 111 | |
Thanks for the question, put a quick note out on the other RYAM thread from 9/23 post on debt / equity - below.
Good question and can see how both sides of the coin. On balance,... login to read the rest | |
| 110 | |
I'm newer to the name, so appologies if this is obvious.
But how do you read the tl amendment they did at the start of the year?
It's nice to get the covenant relief, but Im going... login to read the rest | |
| 109 | |
Once again, appreciate the thoughtful update | |
| 108 | |
Couple updates on RYAM as this is heating up once again.
RYAM remains a hated-on situation and market is rightly focused on pulp market cyclicality (hard landing) + RYAM is the poster-child of a leveraged balance... login to read the rest | |
| 107 | |
As always, appreciate your detailed and thoughtful review of the quarter / situation, Todd. | |
| 106 | |
Thanks for the note.
RYAM been a v frustrating situation for obvious reasons + RYAM mgmt. threw a dirty diaper at the market which will take time to dissipate … battleground situation heading into q2 earnings... login to read the rest | |
| 105 | |
Todd, wonder if you have a refreshed view on RYAM here? FY EBITDA reduction isn't terrible on the surface ($15mm, or ~7%), but it seems the market either thinks there is more downside associated with... login to read the rest | |
| 104 | |
Agree with you (and Paul at RBC for that matter)
TBH, getting a 11 percent TL (with curve) and 13 percent (current rate) seems like a decent outcome given the dynamics (failed prior deal , Chatham... login to read the rest | |
| 103 | |
They got it done! Worst case scenarios for near term should be off the table but it was quite pricey. $250mn at three-month Term SOFR (or, if greater, 3.00%) plus 8.00%
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001597672/000119312523190558/d537511d8k.htm | |
| 102 | |
Will be interesting to see how RYAM plays out over the next several weeks. There's the v n-term refinancing (8k provided clues), there's the next 6-mth outlook (i.e. can they execute on biz trajectory for... login to read the rest | |
| 101 | |
FWIW, outside of Tartas, I recall some of the renewable energy generated out of Canada is also unencumbered (recall ~30 - 35MM loan tied to it) = potentially 25-50MM of assets that could be structurally... login to read the rest | |
| 100 | |
Agree w/ Dynamicmoats, RYAM has given us their playbook and likely going private path. Tartas is unencumbered collateral (my sense is ~$75-$100MM or north of that), providing cleansing disclosure to the public market sounds like... login to read the rest | |
| 99 | |
The information on the Tartus plant makes this 8K read like a cleansing document. I don't believe these assets fall within the security package of the existing 1L debt, so disclosure either means new lenders... login to read the rest | |
| 96 | |
Thanks for elaborating. Much appreciated | |
| 95 | |
Think they tackle in July (consistent w/ CEO comments at the Stifel conference), either they pull the trigger on private option (eliminate execution risk) or public path. My point is if they choose public path,... login to read the rest | |
| 94 | |
Thanks Todd for thoughts -- But if they wait until reporting q2 numbers, which has historically been early August, then won't we possibly get a going concern warning with the report? | |
| 93 | |
TBD on how the refi gets put together, but I believe they have private options that are non-dilutive to the equity
New issue market for credit has re-opened more recently but its day-by-day, will be interesting... login to read the rest | |
| 89 | |
Thanks MrBing, I missed that -- does make it a tricky situation | |
| 88 | |
The ABL and 2026 Bonds each contain springing maturity provisions which makes these securities mature 121 and 91 days, respectively, ahead of the 2024 Bond maturity unless substantially all of those bonds are refinanced by... login to read the rest | |
| 87 | |
Todd / Shooter -- If they don't get it done by the time of q2 results is going concern likely / a possability as Chatham is claiming? I don't immediately see any covenants which would | |
| 85 | |
beyond bizarre
Meaningful buy at the CEO on Monday
| |
| 83 | |
Appreciate the thoughtful update, todd | |
| 82 | |
Thanks for the note Tugger. Getting punched in the gut today by RYAM was humbling!
I'm a fan of racquet sports and I had the realization (years ago) that the chip n' charge Sampras-style game I... login to read the rest | |
| 81 | |
Hi Todd, curious what you made of the quarter? Reaffirming EBITDA guidance and boosting FCF (albeit on CAPEX cuts) seems benign on the surface, but maybe the market is concerned on the weak 2Q guide | |
| 80 | |
Decent updates from peer (BRG NO) this morning as well as next step in supply chain (customers) via Cerdia & EMN on fibers = all point to a healthy trajectory for RYAM CS in particular
Concerns... login to read the rest | |
| 79 | |
Thanks for the question Wooly, not sure I can provide you a satisfactory response on the last point (nature of the refi). My guess is they won't dilute the equity absent bringing in a "growth-oriented"... login to read the rest | |
| 77 | |
Thanks for the note (and glad you're along for the lead-pontoon trade); Good question credit signal, my guess is some of this due to HY market fearful of 2024 maturities in general right now and... login to read the rest | |
| 75 | |
I'm a broken record on this name (and perhaps the patsy), but think this situation is getting more interesting particularly if can elongate thinking past whatever the n-term noise is around market cycle. RYAM equity... login to read the rest | |
| 74 | |
Thanks for passing along thoughts dynamicmoats. Appreciate the "zoom out" approach as HPC industry S/D dynamics and resulting margins = Northstar on the investment thesis. After multi-year down-cycle driven by excess supply, industry is in... login to read the rest | |
| 72 | |
Thanks dynamic - agreed that this HPC shows signs of long boom cycles and we could be on the cusp of one.
What gives you encouragement that we may be able to have a shot on... login to read the rest | |