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18	member 1/07/24 5:57AM Great research
I just wanted to leave a note and thank the author for the outstanding writeup. It is a great cash-generating company. Unfortunately, ultimately parent company has the control over all the cash that is being view available tags
17	member 8/29/23 10:45AM If anyone still tracks this fyi I got out
If anyone here is still tracking this one, fyi I got out. Still cheap (~4x FY23e P/E) but frankly legacy OEMs like VW and Stellantis are even cheaper than that. Turkish car market still has... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
16	member 4/06/23 2:43AM Re: Re: Re: Re: TRY and margins 15
even if Erdogan wins, car taxes will collapse by inertia over time as the industry gradually shifts to EVs which attract a much lower tax (10% to 50% vs 80% to 220%). Erdogan doesn't want... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 4/05/23 11:20PM Re: Re: Re: TRY and margins 14
As comrade Stalin used to say, it does not matter how people vote, what matters is who counts the votes! view available tags
14	member 4/05/23 10:58PM Re: Re: TRY and margins 13
thanks for the reply. you still thinking Erdogan loses? seems like the opposition has a hard time staying together view available tags
13	member 4/05/23 2:32PM Re: TRY and margins 12
totally agree that bloated OPM reflects top line effectively in EUR but OPEX in TRY. GM is broadly comparable to other VW distributors like d'Ieteren (listed in Belgium) which in its VW distribution biz in... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 2/11/23 3:03PM TRY and margins
should Erdogan lose the election, auto demand in Turkey sounds like a coiled-spring that will make this idea work overall. but do you think we should factor in some margin compression? the Turkish Lira also... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 2/08/23 3:30AM On sale due to earthquake sell-off (still 4x P/E, double-digit div yield, and plenty of growth ahead)
Flying comment on this one to flag that due to the earthquake (pray for Turkey!), frightened Turkish retail investors are giving away shares at 30% discount, which particularly for this is attractive given the already... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 11/15/22 10:42AM still less than 5x P/E and plenty of growth ahead
Dogus, the exclusive distributor of all Volkswagen group’ cars in Turkey, reported very strong Q3 results, with all the stars clearly starting to align. 9M (to Sep) EPS came at nearly 28 lira, up 4.3x... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 8/20/22 8:58AM Dogus - still only 3x P/E and lots of growth ahead
Dogus, Volkswagen Group’ exclusive importer/distributor in Turkey, reported strong Q2 results, with top / bottom line growth of 57% / 268% year-over-year and 60% / 76% sequential (basically all clean). Although the number of new... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
8	member 5/12/22 11:27AM 3x P/E on annualised Q1 earnings (150% y/y growth)
Just a quick update post Q1 results and analyst call. Although supply woes that started in mid-2021 keep biting (about 17k cars sold in Q1 ’22 vs 29k in Q1 ‘21, but in line with... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 11/10/21 2:53AM follow up on Q3 results
Quick update on the Q3 results released last night (results call at 1pm GMT today - Web-dial in - https://mm.closir.com/slides?id=411404). Dogus generated TRY 1.87 EPS in the quarter (clean earnings no exceptional) despite selling only... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
6	member 8/31/21 5:39AM policy reform biggest upside
Lincott apologies another point that I forgot mentioning: historical P&Ls should be really converted in USD to gauge true past profitability, because the top line of this business is effectively 100% dollarised, cars being a global... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 8/30/21 8:25AM Re: Re: Re: steady state earnings 4
Thank you. It's a very fair point. For what is worth, in my opinion earnings/margins may revert to pre-2020 levels only if the car market stagnates or declines from here, and at the same time... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 8/30/21 8:08AM Re: Re: steady state earnings 2
Interesting point about demand being 2m instead of 800k if the devaluation hadn't happened. I guess my concern is mostly that if you ignored the last year's results, the stock seems to be far less... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 8/29/21 6:52PM Re: steady state earnings 1
Turkey's car tax policy nicely explained here: https://jalopnik.com/why-this-150-000-porsche-costs-600-000-in-turkey-1847572799 the tax is a much bigger drag than even the weak lira, and shows what huge potential there would be for demand to grow, particularly in the premium segment, view available tags
2	member 8/29/21 1:05PM Re: steady state earnings 1
I think earnings will actually keep on growing. Looking at the earnings of 10 years back when the lira was worth 5x its current value vs the USD doesn't make sense unless you believe that,... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2014	2015
Price:	17.25	EPS	$0.00	$0.00
Shares Out. (in M):	37	P/E	0.0x	0.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	633	P/FCF	0.0x	0.0x
Net Debt (in $M):	-3	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	630	TEV/EBIT	0.0x	0.0x

Description

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