2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Price: | 15.75 | EPS | $1.76 | $1.70 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 13 | P/E | 9x | 9x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 203 | P/FCF | 6.5x | 6.5x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 128 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 332 | TEV/EBIT | 0.0x | 0.0x |
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I am recommending a long position in PRSC, with 50% upside to my $24 target price within 18 months. PRSC initially came to my attention via a Magic Formula type screen- it is cheap on any metric (15%+ FCF yield) and generates ROEs above 30%. PRSC has 2 segments, each of which is primarily reimbursed by Medicaid at the state level: the provision of government-sponsored social services in a home-based setting, and the management of outsourced, government-sponsored, non-emergency transportation.
History
PRSC was formed in 1996, with a vision of providing social services in a low-cost, home-based setting, rather than in psychiatric hospitals and residential treatment centers as was then the norm. PRSC expanded its business through both organic growth and two dozen small acquisitions (typically very small acquisitions priced <6x EBITDA and immediately accretive) over the next 12 years. In late 2007, PRSC made by far its largest acquisition. This created PRSC's 2nd business segment, the management of outsourced non-emergency transportation services. PRSC purchased the business for $220mm, and subsequently saw its own stock price decline from above $30 to less than a dollar as PRSC had become a leveraged small-cap in the midst of the credit crisis. PRSC has largely focused on debt pay-down since that experience and is only now beginning to look again at restarting the acquisition strategy. M&A will likely focus on smaller acquisitions, with the possibility of PRSC adding a significant third segment to the business. All acquisitions will be asset-light businesses that fit PRSC's core skills.
Financials
The financials are a bit messy due to the history of acquisitions. Here are my take-aways:
|
|
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010E |
|
Revenues |
||||||||||
Social Services |
145.7 |
191.9 |
262.2 |
310.5 |
340.7 |
NA |
||||
Transport (NET) |
NA |
NA |
22.9 |
381.1 |
460.3 |
NA |
||||
Total |
145.7 |
191.9 |
285.2 |
691.7 |
801.0 |
885.1 |
||||
% Growth |
NA |
32% |
49% |
143% |
16% |
11% |
||||
EBIT |
||||||||||
Social Services |
16.5 |
15.4 |
23.3 |
NM |
24.2 |
NA |
||||
Transport (NET) |
NA |
NA |
2.3 |
NM |
29.5 |
NA |
||||
Total |
16.5 |
15.4 |
25.7 |
NM |
54.4 |
57.5 |
||||
% Margin |
11.3% |
8.0% |
9.0% |
NM |
6.8% |
6.5% |
||||
DA |
2.1 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
12.7 |
12.9 |
12.5 |
LTM |
|||
EBITDA |
18.6 |
18.9 |
30.7 |
NM |
67.2 |
70.2 |
Est |
|||
% Margin |
12.8% |
9.9% |
10.8% |
NM |
8.4% |
7.9% |
||||
Capex |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
9.3 |
LTM |
|||
% of Revenues |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
1.1% |
||||
EBITDA-Capex |
17.7 |
17.8 |
28.8 |
NM |
63.5 |
60.9 |
||||
% Margin |
12.1% |
9.3% |
10.1% |
NM |
7.9% |
6.9% |
||||
Free Cash Flow to Equity |
10.4 |
10.2 |
16.0 |
NM |
30.6 |
27.7 |
||||
% Margin |
7.1% |
5.3% |
5.6% |
NM |
3.8% |
3.1% |
||||
EPS |
$ 0.95 |
$ 0.80 |
$ 1.19 |
NM |
$ 1.60 |
$ 1.76 |
Est |
|||
Net Working Capital |
23.6 |
24.3 |
10.0 |
30.0 |
8.8 |
(1.4) |
||||
% of Revenues |
16% |
13% |
4% |
4% |
1% |
0% |
||||
Source: Capital IQ |
Street projections for 2011 are for modest revenue growth, along with slightly decreased operating margins (due to lack of rate increases) and flattish EPS.
Social Services Segment Review
This segment primarily provides government-sponsored social services, covering topics including substance abuse, family dysfunction, anger management, parental training, school support, and workforce development. The services are provided for an average of 5 hours per week, and take place in individual, family and group settings, each located in the homes of the clients. More intensive services are also provided as needed, including programs that manage sexual deviancy, depression, and domestic violence. In some of these cases, the alternative to home-based counseling would be institutionalization.
Additionally, PRSC provides foster care training and supervision, and also has a division that provides back-office/admin support for not-for-profit entities.
Through this Social Services segment, PRSC services an average of 60,000 clients each day in 43 states. Contracts are awarded at the state and local level, but almost all contracts are ultimately reimbursed by Medicaid. Approximately 70% of revenue in this segment is "fee for service" (typically hourly rates that average around $90), 20% is cost-based, and the remainder is fixed price. The largest contract is with the state of Virginia, and represents 13% of revenue in this segment. The home-based nature of the service obviates the need to pay for facilities, thereby making PRSC a low-cost alternative and reducing fixed costs (most employees are paid on salary, but with productivity benchmarks that effectively make employee costs variable).
Competition include:
Non-Emergency Transportation Segment ("NET") Review
This segment provides non-emergency transportation services primarily to Medicaid recipients, and also to Medicare recipients, senior citizens and disabled people. It is also "asset-light", in that the segment does not own any vehicles and outsources the actual transportation to local cab, van and ambulance companies. PRSC's role is to process calls, handle billing, supervise the service quality, etc. In this sense it is essentially a logistics company. The majority of the transports are standing orders for trips such as dialysis treatment, doctor visits, etc.
Around 90% of the revenue in this segment is generated under "capitated contracts", where PRSC must assume the responsibility to meet the transport needs of a geographic area for the contract duration (in other words, costs are variable but revenue is not, so higher utilization = lower profits). These contracts typically have price increase/renegotiation triggers to protect PRSC from unprofitable contracts. There is a high degree of customer concentration in this segment, as the state of Virginia represents 15% of revenue and the next 4 largest contracts represent a collective 31% of revenues. In total, this segment provides services under 65 contracts in 39 states.
Competition includes:
Historically PRSC has been most successful bidding for larger, statewide contracts that other players have less scale/expertise in servicing.
Attractions
Risks/Issues
Valuation
Historically PRSC has traded at much higher multiples, but that is not particularly relevant given the current regulatory dynamic.
Conclusion
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