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40	member 6/30/21 2:07PM Re: Updated thoughts here? 39
Agree, trying to figure out why this isn't very attractive here. Guess market continues to struggle with news that Amazon is buying planes? view available tags
34	member 4/27/20 11:40AM Air Freight Outlook
Post 9/11 saw a multi year decline in commercial air traffic. I would be surprised if we are not looking at a similar situation (or worse) over the next several years. Would this not represent a material view available tags
31	member 8/08/19 10:46AM 2024 Convertibles
Convertibles look pretty attractive again in the 95s http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C785889&symbol=ATSG4727983 view available tags
22	member 8/08/18 8:59AM Re: puppyeh 21
gotcha, thanks HoneyBadger. I see what you are saying with the higher ROICs, lower debt, etc. I guess it is more of a servicey-type business and hence deserving of the higher multiple. i will do view available tags
19	member 8/07/18 3:07PM Re: Re: Re: opportunity 18
Honeybadger - how much of the earnings of the business come from aircraft leasing? If it is substantial (it sounds like it is), then why would cargo aircraft leasing trade at 3x book value vs... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
15	member 2/09/18 9:38AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Amzn news 14
A) pilots b) feedstock agreements c)conversion ... also the dhl agreement comes up for renewal next year. Amzn could buy it and not renew with dhl and bingo, more planes! view available tags
14	member 2/09/18 9:10AM Re: Re: Re: Amzn news 12
But why would Amazon buy ATSG when ATSG has leased out the rest of their planes? view available tags
13	member 2/09/18 9:09AM Re: Re: Re: Amzn news 12
One more minor item: amzn likes to grow and even if your assemsnt was right (which i disagree with), amzn would most likely still place another order with atsg as they roll this out as... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 2/09/18 8:58AM Re: Re: Amzn news 11
We believe they have 10 years left on the 200s.. 15-20 years left on everything else. That’s a long time. Adjusting for true maintenance capex and plane replenishment it’s atill a 10% fcf yield. Do... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 2/09/18 8:26AM Re: Amzn news 10
Do you know the average age of the 767's leased to Amazon? Presumably these are +20 year-old planes? I'm making that assumption based on CargoJet's disclosures. ATSG seems to go out of their way to... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 2/09/18 7:34AM Amzn news
So wsj reporting amzn wants to grow to compete with ups/fdx... to me it would be very difficult to source the planes and get the pilots and certify the pilots... why not just buy or... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 3/07/17 12:46PM Re: Cash generation 1
So I'm showing very minor cash generation in 2014 and 2015 ($0.25-$0.40/shr), free cash negative 2011-13, effectively free cash neutral 2009-2010, $0.80/shr FCF positive in 2009, and highly cash negative (>$1.00/shr) in 2008. view available tags
1	member 3/07/17 12:41PM Cash generation
HoneyBadger, Thanks for the idea. You characterize the company as "cash generative". However, I just quickly pulled financials and it looks like over both the trailing 5-yr and 10-yr periods, the company in aggregate has spent... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2018	2019
Price:	38.04	EPS	3.06	3.59
Shares Out. (in M):	53	P/E	12.4	10.6
Market Cap (in $M):	2,016	P/FCF	10	10
Net Debt (in $M):	1,891	EBIT	325	336
TEV (in $M):	3,908	TEV/EBIT	12.0	11.6
Borrow Cost:	General Collateral

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