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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
17	member 12/13/22 1:14PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 16
@Reaper - are you still involved? Looks like they hired advisors... 2 view available tags
14	member 11/10/22 10:49AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 13
Teethless covenants, $122 mm liquidity, wc benefit next yr, and only need to cobble together $23 mm. Not saying it's a good business and may not be around in 10 yrs. But seems like r/r... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
13	member 11/08/22 10:45AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 12
Donut or multibagger from these levels? view available tags
12	member 9/12/22 5:08PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 11
Your reasoning seems logical AlfredJones. Sorry for the delayed response. view available tags
11	member 7/27/22 10:22AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 10
Hi Reaper - curious what you make of the r/r here...seems like as long as it doesn't go BK, you probably end up doing pretty well...If they were profitable during covid, how does this not turn 1 view available tags
10	member 5/09/22 7:28PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 9
There are almost no covenants on their debt, none in regards to EBITDA or anything like that. I'm obviously surprised by guidance and the reaction, I would note, the bonds were not down much. If things... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
9	member 5/09/22 10:10AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 8
pretty violent reaction...liquidity seems ok w/just interst expense this year and then small maturities next year. Assuming some covenants need to be examined...curious how you are looking at performance. Blaming supply chain and freight...not sure 1 view available tags
8	member 5/05/22 10:48AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 7
Thanks Reaper - anything you like as a short pair? 1 view available tags
7	member 4/25/22 6:45PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 6
Sorry for the late response. On franchising, I am talking about if the store performs well, then this will exist, it's not based on a current pipeline. The current third party is tricky I believe the decline came... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 4/13/22 7:39PM Re: Re: Re: Some questions. 5
Thanks for the replies, very helpful. I had a couple of follow ups. I'm struggling to see the strength of Amscan in the numbers. If we look at reported wholesale revenues, the company helpfully breaks out the... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
5	member 4/05/22 3:33PM Re: Re: Some questions. 4
I would also add that, I don't need this thing to get to 10% retail margins that would be far more upside, just some mundane improveemnt and they can earn $3 per sahre in 5 view available tags
4	member 4/04/22 10:07PM Re: Some questions. 2
1. Dollar stores sell party goods but a small percentage increase in store count is not worrisome, but i suppose on the margin they will take a small amount of share. Prty does wholesale these... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 4/04/22 8:59PM Re: Agree but concerns. 1
1 on Halloween, they have not lost this. They are hurting on costume in a bag with loss to Amazon so pivoting to more build your own. Halloween is not lost, its a little worse... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
2	member 4/04/22 7:45PM Some questions.
Thanks for the write up, great read and it sounds pretty compelling. I have a few questions. #1 Is the growth of the dollar store footprint likely to erode PRTY market share over time. I think... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
1	member 4/01/22 7:34PM Agree but concerns.
Reaper - fantastic write up. I know this pretty well. I 100% agree with your premise. 2 items have me on the side. 1. I was burned by mgmt on Halloween. I suspect they discounted... login to read the rest 4 view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	3.65	EPS	0.76	1.00
Shares Out. (in M):	113	P/E	5	4
Market Cap (in $M):	410	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	1,389	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	1,799	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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