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62	member 10/25/23 3:09PM Updated Thoughts?
Volumes were strong this quarter. Margins were a little weaker than modeled but management seems reasonably optimistic about where margins are going. Short interest is 26% of float. This too hard to short? 1 view available tags
58	member 8/01/23 7:24AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 57
Martin, I wouldn't bother wasting any more of your time replying to this guy. Fact of the matter is this is rapidly normalizing. Ppl don't get the LIFO benefit. This will be back to mid-cycle view available tags
52	member 7/31/23 3:44PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 42
Cerrowire, Southwire, EncoreWire, and RepublicWire are all adding capacity. Have you done any work on this name? Or are you shooting from the hip? view available tags
50	member 7/31/23 2:06PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 49
view available tags
48	member 7/31/23 1:57PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 45
atkr over-earning too but much higher quality biz, only 1-2 effective competitors view available tags
47	member 7/31/23 1:48PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 46
blindly looking at the 15 year TRA because it re-rated from pre-GFC to post-GFC when a number of its competitors went out of biz is so silly I will not continue having this discussion with... login to read the rest view available tags
44	member 7/31/23 1:13PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 43
Under what metrics do you believe this to be a high quality business? It earns about a 9-10% ROIC thru cycle. I would not use book value - no one looks at book value for... login to read the rest view available tags
41	member 7/30/23 8:16PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 40
Thanks Bismarck, agree you are absolutely right over the long run this appears to be a spread biz given constant GM % from 2015-2019 despite copper price moves. Two questions though - 1) re: LIFO... login to read the rest view available tags
40	member 7/30/23 3:49PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 39
Rtg123, You should think about the business on a gross profit per unit basis, not gross margin % basis. They do not earn a return on the copper input cost. Their commentary was misleading - they... login to read the rest view available tags
39	member 7/30/23 2:34PM Re: Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 38
How do you frame downside? Agree they missed numbers and LIFO worse than headline. However, idk even if you adjust for the LIFO adj the biz did around 23% gross margins. How low does GM... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
38	member 7/30/23 10:59AM Re: Re: Re: another good quarter 37
Not sure if people are paying attention here anymore but the 2Q23 results for WIRE were extremely bad. Much worse than the headline results even, as they had a $18.6mm LIFO benefit in the quarter,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
37	member 7/18/23 8:27AM Re: Re: another good quarter 36
Anyone have updated thoughts here? 1 view available tags
35	member 2/15/23 9:58AM another good quarter
the cash keeps building up, they keep buying back stock. the share price has rallied a decent amount in YTD so be interesting to see if this pop holds up. my recollection from the last... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
34	member 11/14/22 6:58PM Re: Re: Recent copper price spike 33
Thanks Bismarck, very helpful. view available tags
33	member 11/14/22 5:26PM Re: Recent copper price spike 32
Sounds like they put out pricing sheets for 10% higher which is directly in line w/ the move in copper. If that full price increase doesn't stick, then spreads should be down. The price of... login to read the rest view available tags
32	member 11/14/22 1:28PM Recent copper price spike
A question for Bismarck or Deerwood - how should the recent spike in copper prices impact WIRE's spread/lb? The original premise of the short was that falling prices would be a leading indicator for spreads,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
31	member 10/26/22 12:44PM Re: Re: Update 30
deerwood, thanks for the idea. any update or change in thesis after earnings? it feels like the stock rallies for a bit after earnings but then drops in the interim. view available tags
28	member 8/11/22 10:59AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 27
I'm not trying to be dismissive. I was probably one of the first to build a short thesis on WIRE, but copper prices have come down since June. Therefore it means nothing that the PPI... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
26	member 8/04/22 1:12AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 24
Thanks for the good discussion. Lights, I guess we are splitting hairs over the time period to measure the average. If I do the 10 years prior to covid (Jan 1 2010 through Dec 31 2019), I... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
25	member 8/03/22 9:58PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 24
I suggest viewing this not on a % margin basis but on a ebit per pound basis. Book value isn't that relevant here because the company has been using partially fully depreciated equipment which it... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
23	member 8/03/22 3:39PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 22
Light and others: A few things: 1) I would recommend separating the price of copper vs the spread (margin) at which WIRE and others sell their products. Irrespective of where the price of copper is or has... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
19	member 8/03/22 10:31AM Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 18
Light62, Can you elaborate on "The purpose of the new price sheets was to drive an effective price increase" What does the CFO mean by that statement? Thanks 1 view available tags
14	member 8/02/22 3:14PM Re: Re: Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 13
oh, it's plausible. Big inventory writedown comin' view available tags
12	member 8/02/22 2:51PM Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 10
well done deerwood. Other building materials distributors that have been gauging their customers and earning obscene margins due to lag effects/supply chain issues/FIFO accounting will suffer the same fate. i.e. UFPI, MLI, CSL 2 view available tags
11	member 8/02/22 2:49PM Re: WIRE 70% price cut! 10
Have you confirmed this with on the ground contacts? Seems so extreme to me. view available tags
9	member 7/28/22 11:15AM Any update post-earnings?
Particularly interested in your views re what run-rate earnings are at today's copper prices, as that will significantly determine how much excess cash they continue to generate before ROIC normalizes. Thanks. 1 view available tags
2	member 7/21/22 2:45PM Re: Excellent Write-up-- a couple of q's 1
the published prices do not reflect true prices. They are aspirational. Have to speak with distributors to get the true pricing. They should earn $.30 of EBIT / pound of wire shipped through the cycle as... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
1	member 7/21/22 1:51PM Excellent Write-up-- a couple of q's
Hi Deerwood, thank you for the write up. We agree with your bearish view on Encore Wire, and that normalized earnings is far lower than consensus estimates. Given the supply chain issues, they have also likely benefitted even... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	12.32	EPS	0.79	0.95
Shares Out. (in M):	122	P/E	15.7	13.0
Market Cap (in $M):	1,500	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	162	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	1,662	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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