OYO Geospace OYOG
December 19, 2005 - 2:14pm EST by
member
| 2005 | 2006 | ||||||
| Price: | 27.50 | EPS | |||||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 155 | P/FCF | |||||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | |||||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 35 | |
Thanks for the comments. Reading over your write-up again, it seems that most of these concerns were priced into the stock at the time of the write-up -- presumably the reason it was at... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
The main concern of the report is commercial property prices, which they argue could fall by 30%. The big concern is that rapid price appreciation over the past 10 years has pushed commercial property yields... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
I see that IRE and AIB were downgraded by UBS. Do you know what their concerns are? I have not seen the reports. | |
| 32 | |
Call me mentally weak, but I find it tough to short at these levels when something like WaMu trades at 1.4 times tangible book and 10 times earnings despite being highly levered, under-reserved, and demonstrating... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Would you short it in here? | |
| 30 | |
Thanks for the high rating. I'm embarrassed by the performance and take minimal comfort in the fact that neither IRE nor its peers have announced any adverse developments. Despite the terrible performance, I am somewhat... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
Northern Rock was/is an aggressive, highly levered pure play UK mortgage bank. Although its "Tier 1" capital was 8.5%, it is interesting to note that they had around £2B of equity and over £100B of... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
For those who are following the situation at Northern Rock closely, what is their actual US subprime exposure? It seems like their problems are primarily due to lack of liquidity because of frozen secondary... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Anglo-Irish, the #3 bank in Ireland, which is focused on the commercial property market, released its "trading update" and noted that credit quality continued to be very good and that it would likely beat the... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
I can find nothing related to subprime or sketchy CDO investments. And as I noted earlier, the CEO of the capital markets recently bought stock--a pretty healthy endorsement. As I recall there is a small... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
Just some anecdotal info:
Much is made of the fact the average home prices increased 4-fold from €76K in 1996 to €300K in 2006. Ireland's nominal GDP has more than tripled from about $60B in 1996... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Allied Irish Banks released encouraging half year results and raised EPS guidance from low double digit to mid-teens growth.
The CEO bought 150K shares recently.
Additionally, the Irish mortgage numbers came in better than expected. | |
| 20 | |
The sell-off in financials is remarkable and very global. The Irish banks aren't unique. The only thing I can think of that would actually hurt IRE is if their capital markets group purchased some sort... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
on carryover meltdown in US to Ireland?
Any early signs of real estate weakness? | |
| 18 | |
Zombie companies.
I am arguing for full disclosure on any problem loans. Denial is terrible. I think even more disclosure on the status of problem loans or potential problem loans would be better. I am just... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Interesting comments.
I still think the whole accounting concept of loan loss provisions and reserves is flawed. It is not real. It obfuscates. Just give investors the facts (i.e. NPLs, NCO) and let us make bets | |
| 15 | |
Skyhawk,
I would not be so harsh on the reserving practice in the US because it is the result of backlash from the accounting scandals earlier in the decade. The collapse of Arthur Andersen put a... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
I have attached the links for the current 2007-2013 National Development Plan and a summary of the first NDP. Pretty interesting and clearly intended for the general public. The current plan definitely has a good... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
I failed to mention another critical bull point in my original write-up--the National Development Plan (NDP), a seven year plan (2007-2013) designed by Ireland's government to improve the country's infrastructure. They are planning on spending... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
MTB trades at a substantially higher valuation than its peers (i.e. 14.8 PE vs. 12.2 for KEY and 12.9 for PNC) because Warren Buffett owns part of it. While MTB has done far better over... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
AIB saw bad loans rise from 868M a year ago to 933M, an increase of only 8%, pretty decent considering that total assets rose by 25% to €107B. NPLs fell from 1.02% of total loans... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
I forgot to mention the most important statistic--bad loans. NPLs increased 22% from €796M to €968M. This is a sizeable increase and is definitely something to watch, but we cannot ignore the fact IRE had... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
My apologies for the delayed reply--I was in Japan visiting some banks. Interesting stuff goining on over there!
The most important point regarding loan loss reserve and provision accounting whether it is Irish, U.S., or European... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
In regards to AIB, you mentioned, "they have a $3B stake in New-York based M&T Bank (MTB), which at 17 times Q1/07 annualized EPS is a good stand-alone short."
This is a little off-topic, but why... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
I'd be curious to hear the reserve levels of Allied Irish Banks in your response to the previous question.
I bought last week after the price drop so I apprecaite your idea. | |
| 6 | |
Are you at all worried that IRE may be under-reserved? Allowance for loan losses is 34 bps of average loans. The allowance is only 44% of nonperforming loans. (I believe comparable numbers for Citigroup are... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
IRE is trading off (along with many other European banks) because of an announcement by Northern Rock, the #5 UK mortgage lender. They just released a "trading update" and lowered EPS guidance as a result... login to read the rest | |
| 4 | |
David,
We are talking to IRE again later this week. I'll try to get some insider viewpoints on the tax issues. But my understanding/assumption is that many banks that operate across different countries have separate legal... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Skyhawk,
Thanks for the responses. Your view that investing in Irish banks is investing in the Irish economy was what I was trying to drill into with my GDP question.
I have been thinking about the tax... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
David, I can always count on you for some good questions and witty comments even though my write-ups tend not to have the spectacular short-term return potential(maybe even over-night!) that many other VIC ideas... login to read the rest | |