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17	member 11/11/20 2:56PM Re: Re: Update 16
Stock has obviously had a nice bounce. My guess is that part of the run is due to the favorable rulings on the tax side and the perception that Kenya is resolved entirely. Here is an... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 8/17/20 8:39PM Update
Some good / some bad here for the short thesis. The bad news for the short thesis is that the new CFO made a decent-sized open market purchase ($1.2m). However, he had a strong comp package... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
14	member 3/11/20 9:30AM Re: Competition 13
Thanks, Nails. My response here is a little more general than I'd like, but I wanted to get back to you. Geothermal is in competition with all sources of generation. It's a baseload source but has... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
12	member 3/03/20 9:34AM 10-K - KRA demanding more money
Haven't been through the whole K yet, but quick update on Kenya: The receivable was about the same at period end, although the company claims $24m in payments post end of year, which would be a... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
11	member 2/26/20 1:09PM Re: Re: Q4-19 Blink 10
Thanks - immediate term you're probably right on the stock, although I wouldn't be surprised if it drifted lower given the run it's had and the fact that valuation is still too rich. I actually... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
10	member 2/26/20 9:59AM Re: Q4-19 Blink 9
the ceo leaving was a nice surprise. stock is trending down to the $70 level but outside of more bombshells i would think it kind of sits around there. nice one week IRR :-) view available tags
9	member 2/26/20 7:47AM Q4-19 Blink
Angel (CEO) is retiring July 1, which to me is a red flag / more confirmatory of the thesis than not. What does the announcement mean for the rest of the year, are surprises in... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
8	member 2/24/20 9:29AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FCF 7
Not taking it that way at all, haha. Putting the thinking out and always happy to see where I could be wrong. I posted to that to see if that is how you or others... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 2/24/20 8:53AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FCF 6
thanks again for the very detailed response. please don't take my comments as not liking the idea - just the scale of the downside..:-) i think mr. market would put a 20x multiple on the "real view available tags
6	member 2/24/20 8:31AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: FCF 5
I'm using NI to size the Kenya risk. I agree FCF is more important; but to my earlier point, what do you pay for a flat or declining FCF stream (that has embedded in it... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
5	member 2/21/20 11:50AM Re: Re: Re: Re: FCF 4
i do think the company danced around the issue. and they don't have any reason to highlight the Kenya or Hounduras issue as it raises questions. i just think personally your focus on NI is wrong... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 2/19/20 4:59PM Re: Re: Re: FCF 3
Agree $50m is okay for maintenance (was just showing $35m to be generous...). Possible that $20m is what Kenya wants back for the contract over-earning but maybe not. The 10-K disclosure said the KRA's audit focused... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 2/19/20 2:23PM Re: Re: FCF 2
thanks for the detailed response. i thought maintenance cap ex was trending higher so i think your $50mm seems conservative enough. my guess was the new tax hit was really the amount the govt wanted back... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 2/19/20 1:38PM Re: FCF 1
1) If you assume maintenance capex of only ~$35-$50m, then you are paying 21x-23x for peak all-time FCF (based on 2017 OCF of $246 million) that will decline regardless of maintenance spend as production at... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
1	member 2/19/20 12:08PM FCF
thanks for the write up. some quick questions 1) how do you think about FCF ex growth cap ex? seems like they generate good free cash flow ex growth cap ex. even if you haircut a... login to read the rest 1 view available tags

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			2020	2021
Price:	85.78	EPS	2.18	2.47
Shares Out. (in M):	51	P/E	39x	35x
Market Cap (in $M):	4,374	P/FCF	110x	50x
Net Debt (in $M):	1,197	EBIT	244	279
TEV (in $M):	5,704	TEV/EBIT	23x	20x
Borrow Cost:	Available 0-15% cost

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