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25	member 7/02/24 4:05PM Exit
While I still think $40 is the right target (2x normalized $2 eps), I can see a case for that $2 in EPS from late teens and inflation adjusting it to today's $ and calling... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
23	member 5/21/24 9:27AM OFLX 1q
I'll keep updating until my price target (despite low/no level of apparent interest!) Far and way my favorite risk vs reward short which is very low risk to lose and very high chance of reward. OFLX... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
22	member 3/12/24 11:13AM OFLX new risk factor
I've always said this was a good business but susceptible to threats b/c it is has very high gross margins and low branding element. The one risk that had not happened is that foreign imports... login to read the rest view available tags
21	member 3/07/24 12:47PM 4q
Same trend continuing and now at run rate of around $2 in EPS. Decent year for new housing starts despite the higher interest rates. No growth and really no use for excess cash beyond dividends. ... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 11/16/23 1:50PM Re: Re: Re: OFLX 3q 19
Just interesting to note post 13fs.... in 3q shorts covered 100,000 shares (now down to 309k as of 10/31 vs 550k start of year). Blackrock bought 60k shares so shorts and effective index/black box bought 150k Conestoga sold 50k... login to read the rest view available tags
19	member 11/07/23 1:33PM Re: Re: OFLX 3q 18
Agree. Though of course with no real buying it just takes a small exit for it to continue to fall. And that ironically causes the owners to wake up and realize it's crazy what they... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 10/19/23 10:40AM Re: OFLX 3q 17
scott265, Thank you for an excellent short idea. Has been on a quiet slide since you posted. I suspect if we ever get any real (selling?) volume the shares will finally trade to a more reasonable... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 10/18/23 7:36PM 3q
OFLX reported just revs and net income. Revs off 13% and backing into operating income it went from 8.6mm to 6.7mm or 23%. If you back out the one time liability reserve from 2q22 it... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
16	member 7/19/23 4:55PM Update
Just an update: Not much change. Revs weaker and op profit continues to taper off peak. They just did scant reporting and sales were off 18% for quarter and down 10% in front half of the year. ... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
14	member 3/27/23 1:04PM Re: Re: NYC close to banning nat gas stoves 13
That's odd. Never even remotely an issue and it's GC borrow. Can I ask what broker? view available tags
12	member 3/27/23 12:31PM NYC close to banning nat gas stoves
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-poised-to-ban-gas-stoves-in-new-buildings-as-part-of-all-electric-mandate-ad8bd655 If this had valuation connected to reality, we would be debating whether this goes to other states (i.e. California likely) and the fact that OFLX is Northeast US heavy exposed and prob result in a... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 2/25/23 7:13PM Re: Re: If not now, when? 10
I spoke with the analyst at KAR some years ago and he told me they view OFLX as a yield play. That seems totally insane to me but this was years ago before COVID (still... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 2/24/23 7:51PM Re: If not now, when? 9
I do think it’s different from ROL and TR in that ROL people actually can show numbers that say it’s a pretty good acyclical business. TR has the buyout angle. I went back and reread... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 2/24/23 10:57AM If not now, when?
Starting to think this stock should be put in the TR and ROL bucket. No matter what it reports, it just doesn't break. What's your take on recent earnings? view available tags
8	member 11/08/22 10:59AM 3q update
Quick update on last quarter: Summary is business trending maybe a tiny bit better than expected but overall macro looking much worse. Revs very slightly negative. 3q gross margins 100 bps below prior year (after tick up... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 7/21/22 7:09PM Earnings and Kayne Anderson
1. OFLX did their scant press release reporting but it seems like 1q on repeat. 1q sales up 1.1% and op income off 11.5%. This quarter will be sales off 50 bps and est op... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
6	member 6/30/22 3:34PM Re: What drove GM expansion? 5
No insight beyond what 10-k indicates which would imply just a good business running well. Like I said in the write-up, there is no evidence to indicate it could happen but with (1) material costs... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 6/29/22 4:50PM What drove GM expansion?
Any insight on what drove margins from a steady ~50% trough 2012 to 60%+ now? Just pricing? view available tags
4	member 6/23/22 3:26PM Re: End Markets 3
I do not. They've never done a presentation and I am not even sure if they would know exactly as things are mostly sold via distributors like Ferguson. Because the valuation has never even been close... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 6/23/22 2:56PM End Markets
Do you know split of commercial, new resi and resi R&R for this biz? view available tags
2	member 6/22/22 11:37AM Re: Mr. Reed's Health 1
Good to hear you've done well with Schuff. I had been on and off involved but not for this last run. I don't know anything about his health. Out of curiosity, did you have contact with... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	115.00	EPS	2.2	2
Shares Out. (in M):	10	P/E	52	57
Market Cap (in $M):	1,160	P/FCF	51	56
Net Debt (in $M):	-20	EBIT	31	28
TEV (in $M):	1,140	TEV/EBIT	37	40
Borrow Cost:	General Collateral

Description

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