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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
21	member 8/05/15 1:44PM Re: Re: Author Exit Recommendation 20
No. There are better businesses than DNOW that can be bought at attractive prices. I just choose to no longer be short. view available tags
18	member 1/22/15 1:37PM Still egregiously overvalued
2015 consensus EPS estimates for DNOW are down 35% in the last 3 months and 2016/17/18 EPS estimates have all been cut in half. I would agree that the 2016/17/18 estimates of $1.05/1.08/1.29 are probably... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 1/22/15 1:34PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Response to Everdeen 16
That's fine, but there are other and better energy service companies with similarly clean balance sheets that will have opportunities to strengthen their position and they are getting nowhere near the credit DNOW is getting... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 12/11/14 3:25PM Re: Re: Response to Everdeen 13
I haven't learned anything to dissuade me from my believe that DNOW is significantly overvalued. I agree with everdeen about the investor base. For anyone who is unclear about the impact of the energy downturn on... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 12/11/14 1:59PM Re: Response to Everdeen 12
I agree 100% on the valuation differential. I think DNOW got some of the spinoff sheen and the investor base evaluating it is likely very different from that of MRC, even now. I was just talking... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 12/11/14 1:50PM Response to Everdeen
A 40% premium LTM EBITDA multiple and 100% premium forward P/E seems quite large despite the difference in leverage and clearly you know that these type of businesses generate significant FCF during any slowdown so... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 12/11/14 1:40PM Re: Divergence with MRC 10
Are you adjusting for the very significant leverage difference? It's probably more illustrative to look at the divergence in EV terms, which is likely far smaller. MRC is levered 3x EBITDA, DNOW has a little view available tags
10	member 12/11/14 1:01PM Divergence with MRC
Snarfy, any thoughts on the divergence of stock price performance to MRC? Even yesterday, when energy and MRC took a beating, DNOW was up. Over a five day, one month, three month, and six month... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 8/14/14 12:30AM RE: RE: Horrific quarter; muted stock reaction 8
The CEO's purchase was only $274k. I am undeterred. I didn't see a single thing in the earnings report that made me question my thesis. If anything, the results were much worse than I could... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 8/06/14 2:34PM Horrific quarter; muted stock reaction
Revenue 12.9% below consensus; $952mm vs. $1,094mm, and down 11.0% YoY EBITDA 20.7% below consensus; $49mm vs. $62mm, with a 5.1% margin vs. 5.2% a year ago - still light years away from the 8% EBITDA... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 6/02/14 4:25PM RE: RE: An important point about incentives 4
Thanks for your questions. The incremental costs of being a standalone company were pegged in the Information Statement at $45 million. That number seems high. They need to add ~100 people to staff functions like Treasury... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 6/02/14 10:04AM An important point about incentives
I can't believe I forgot to mention this. Management is not receiving options with strike prices based on a mechanism like the VWAP for the first 30 days trading, and their old NOV options are... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 5/30/14 12:08PM RE: M&A opportunity 1
Thanks for your comments. I can't completely dismiss the point you make (accretion is accretion after all), but there are a couple areas where I would push back. First, MRC also tells me they want to... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
1	member 5/30/14 8:38AM M&A opportunity
I was also surprised by the level of interest in the company during the roadshow, but I think you're underestimating the potential for accretive M&A, which arguably justifies the premium P/E valuation vs MRC. DNOW... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2014	2015
Price:	31.50	EPS	$1.37	$1.59
Shares Out. (in M):	107	P/E	23.0x	19.8x
Market Cap (in $M):	3,370	P/FCF	12.8x	23.9x
Net Debt (in $M):	-100	EBIT	224	261
TEV (in $M):	3,270	TEV/EBIT	15.0x	12.9x
Borrow Cost:	NA

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