2013 | 2014 | ||||||
Price: | 6.26 | EPS | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 253 | P/E | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 1,587 | P/FCF | 0.0x | 0.0x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0.0x | 0.0x |
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New Residential Investment (NRZ)
Executive Summary
NRZ is a misunderstood spin-co, unfairly lumped in with agency mortgage REITs, trading at an ~11% dividend yield, with assets earning mid to high teen ROEs. Unlike most mortgage REITs, NRZ’s portfolio is positioned well for a rising rate environment, something which is clearly not well understood by the market. Over the next several months, we think investors will get more comfort in the story and the stock is poised for meaningful capital appreciation in addition to the robust current yield. At a 9.5% target dividend yield, the stock would be worth $7.35 for a total return of ~30% in a year. A higher ‘top up dividend’ announcement will be made any day now.
Company Background
NRZ is a mortgage REIT that was spun out of Newcastle (NCT) this spring. You can read ele2996’s write-up of NCT from April 2013 describing both the spin and brief descriptions of both NRZ and new NCT. Briefly, Fortress (FIG) which is the external manager felt that the asset mix at legacy NCT was too complex and was trading at a material discount to its sum of the parts. NRZ is focused on residential & consumer assets, whereas new NCT is focused on CDOs and senior housing properties.
Portfolio Description
NRZ’s primary asset is a set of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) which they own in conjunction with Nationstar (NSM) who services the mortgages on their behalf. Technically, this relationship means NRZ owns an Excess MSR, but the value of the asset works like an MSR that they would own entirely, net of the servicing fee shared with NSM. That is to say, they get a monthly cash flow from the interest payments on the underlying mortgages for the life of the mortgage until it is refinanced or paid down. As you can imagine, the biggest risk is prepayments, as they shorten the life of the MSR cash-flows. The good news is that prepayments should decreases in a rising rate environment, and NSM is set up to ‘recapture’ pre-payments by originating the new loan if the customer so chooses. The special relationship they have with NSM is contractual and should be evergreen. In addition, the large banks continue to be sellers of their MSRs given the changing capital requirements under Basel III as well as the simple desire not to be in the business of servicing mortgages, just originating them.
NRZ owns non-agency RMBS (in conjunction with FIG/NSM) where they have special ‘clean up rights’ to collapse these RMBS securities and sell off the underlying loans to create value. Non agency RMBS prices should continue to benefit from rising housing prices.
NRZ owns a huge portfolio of agency RMBS as well – which on the surface doesn’t look great. However, once you net the repo debt against it you can see that equity devoted to agency RMBS is only 3% of the total. So why do they own $1bn of agency RMBS which should be dilutive to overall ROE? They need to for 1940 Act requirements. In essence, for a mortgage REIT to get the Section 3 (c) (5) (C) exclusion to the 1940 Act, they need to have 55% of assets consistent of ‘qualifying interests’, a category of assets which includes whole-pool agency RMBS. The remaining 45% can be ‘real estate type interests’ which would include the MSRs.
Finally, NRZ owns some consumer loans in conjunction with FIG entity Springleaf (LEAF) which they got in a great deal from HSBC earlier this year. Specifically, they bought a set of loans at a discount to face with a 20% IRR target but based on recent performance look to be earning in excess of 30%. FIG has said they will continue to look for opportunistic investments like this for the NRZ vehicle. Obviously, they like having a permanent capital vehicle so they are incented to source such deals in the future.
Reasons for the valuation discount are overblown
Positive Catalysts
Valuation Target
I think the right way to think about this stock is as a multiple of book value, based on a medium term ROE target. As noted above, I think they can do a 15% ROE, which equates to 1.5x book or $7.50 per share. Here is a table of your returns through YE 2014 assuming 90c of dividend distributions (the top up dividend for YE ’13 plus 4 normal dividends in 2014)
P/B | Px YE '14 | Dividends | Total | % Return | % Yield at Px Target |
1.3x | $6.50 | $0.90 | $7.40 | 18% | 10.8% |
1.4x | $7.00 | $0.90 | $7.90 | 26% | 10.0% |
1.5x | $7.50 | $0.90 | $8.40 | 34% | 9.3% |
1.6x | $8.00 | $0.90 | $8.90 | 42% | 8.8% |
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