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13	member 5/10/24 2:27PM Re: Re: Is this a short? 7
the market didn't like the earnings report again unfortunately. i didn't think it was all that bad. the write up is good and many of the same points can be still used today. I don't know what... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 7/27/23 3:34PM What is the correct multiple?
As I sanity check, I like to look at the growth of profitability vs capital deployed. This isn't perfect, but just as a sanity check it's interesting. From 2018-2022 net income increased $18mm, adjusted cash from... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 7/27/23 3:27PM Re: Re: Re: EYE similarities to LESL short? 10
Keeping it simple, the only change between yesterday and today has been the Walmart news, the impact of which is $0.15-0.20. The Walmart partnership dates back to 1990 with 75 vision centers, peaked in 1994... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
10	member 7/27/23 2:07PM Re: Re: EYE similarities to LESL short? 9
This is meant to be constructive, so let's keep things simple... Do you agree with management EPS and EBITDA add backs? What is your updated 2024 EPS (using GAAP + amortization)? Do you think EYE is a rock... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 7/27/23 1:32PM Re: EYE similarities to LESL short? 8
Drawing a comparison between EYE and LESL is farfetched. LESL was a massive pandemic beneficiary, as people were stuck at home with stimulus money and everyone re-did their pools. Layer on the Biolab fire (produced 40%... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
8	member 7/27/23 12:47PM EYE similarities to LESL short?
If you haven't read the short thesis written by Glory_Warriors on LESL, it is worth doing so as a case study in shorting, or simply not buying an over-earning company run by management who doesn’t... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
7	member 7/27/23 8:09AM Re: Is this a short? 6
Losing Walmart business is a negative surprise but don't view as thesis altering. Walmart operates >3,000 of their Vision centers, while only 227 of these operated by National Vision, which was always an odd setup and... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 7/26/23 6:31PM Is this a short?
Today's announcement about losing Walmart comes on the back of several disappointing misses over the past two years, leaving long holders feeling fatigued. Non-GAAP earnings quality is poor (see comment 4 below) with aggressive management... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 5/14/23 8:40PM Re: Re: Re: Normalized EPS 3
Hi ahnuld I don't think remote optometry makes the business model more vulnerable to online/e-com competition. In a remote eye exam, the customer is still physically going into the store to get his/her eye exam. You... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 5/12/23 2:38PM Re: Re: Normalized EPS 2
Understood, thanks for sharing. It looks like your average operating margin of 6.7% from 2017-2019 includes this list of management add backs. 1 view available tags
3	member 5/12/23 1:14PM Re: Re: Normalized EPS 2
Thanks for the neat idea. isn’t a significant portion of the appeal of these businesses that they were historically online proof? Now that remote optometry is accepted doesn’t that open the competitive field significantly and potentially... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 5/12/23 11:26AM Re: Normalized EPS 1
Hi FencePost Here's the simple build: Take high end of 2023 Revenue guide of $2,135 and grow at 10% (roughly half new store growth, half SSS -> conservative given easy compares after -8% in 2022, and... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 5/11/23 8:23PM Normalized EPS
Hamilton1757, thank you for the idea. Would you please help us understand the comment below from your write up? "Valuation: On normalized earnings power (margin mean reverts to 2018-2019 level) = $1.50 Adj. EPS" When I try... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2023	2024
Price:	23.76	EPS	1.00	1.50
Shares Out. (in M):	80	P/E	24	16
Market Cap (in $M):	1,905	P/FCF	24	16
Net Debt (in $M):	338	EBIT	94	164
TEV (in $M):	2,243	TEV/EBIT	24	14

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