NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP FIZZ
February 20, 2013 - 6:02pm EST by
wan161
2013 2014
Price: 13.40 EPS $0.95 $1.02
Shares Out. (in M): 46 P/E 14.1x 13.1x
Market Cap (in $M): 621 P/FCF 0.0x 0.0x
Net Debt (in $M): -49 EBIT 67 72
TEV ($): 572 TEV/EBIT 8.5x 7.9x

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  • Beverage

Description

National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ – Nasdaq) $13.60

 

Overview:

National Beverage Corp. (“FIZZ”) is a Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based developer, manufacturer, marketer and distributor of beverages, including flavored soft drinks, juices, sparkling waters and energy drinks.  The company trades at an attractive valuation, has top line growth where others in the industry face challenges, and has a history of returning cash to shareholders.  The largest shareholder is Nick Caporella (age 76) who owns 74% of the company’s outstanding shares.  He is also chairman and CEO of the company.

 

Business Details:

FIZZ, established in 1985, produces both carbonated and non-carbonated beverages including soft drinks, energy drinks, juices, teas, still and sparkling waters and vitamin enhanced beverages.  Its brands include Shasta, Faygo, Everfresh, LaCroix, Ritz, Crystal Bay, ClearFruit, Mr. Pure, and Rip It.  Beverage Week ranks FIZZ as the fourth largest branded carbonated soft-drink company in the USA.

 

The company employs 1,200 and has 12 manufacturing facilities (comprising about two million square feet) across the USA, each equipped to produce canned and bottled beverages.  The Company’s products are sold to supermarkets, national chains, convenience stores, restaurants, hospitals, schools, wholesale clubs and other retailers.  The company uses three primary distribution channels. The “Take Home” channel consisting of national and regional grocers, warehouse clubs, mass merchandisers, wholesalers and discount stores. The “Convenience” channel includes distribution to convenience and gas station outlets by the Company’s own fleet.  The Food Service channel distributes to independent distributors who sell to hospitals, schools, military bases, hotels, etc. 

 

The company focuses on distinctly flavoured beverages. While colas account for 50% of the soft drink industry’s volume, they account for less than 20% of FIZZ’s volumes.  In 2012 the Company introduced 54 new flavours or package sizes. 

 

Financial:

The following table shows income statement and key cash flow data since 2009:

 

        National Beverage Corp.        
        Historic Financial Data          
        FYE   FYE   FYE   FYE   LTM  
$ mil (except per share) 5/2/09 % 5/1/10 % 4/30/11 % 4/28/12 % 10/27/12 %
Revenues     575 100.0 593 100.0 600 100.0 629 100.0 651 100.0
Cost of Goods & Svcs 405 70.5 396 66.8 382 63.6 416 66.1 440 67.6
Gross Profit     170 29.5 197 33.2 219 36.4 213 33.9 211 32.4
SG&A       132 22.9 145 24.5 156 26.0 146 23.2 141 21.7
Operating Income   38 6.6 52 8.7 63 10.5 67 10.7 70 10.7
Interest Expense   0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Other Expense (Inc.)   -1 -0.2 0 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Pretax Income   39 6.7 51 8.7 63 10.4 67 10.6 69 10.7
Income Tax     22 3.8 19 3.1 22 3.6 23 3.6 24 3.6
Net Income     17 2.9 33 5.5 41 6.8 44 7.0 46 7.0
EPS       $0.37   $0.71   $0.88   $0.95   $0.99  
Avg. shs O/S, mm   46.2   46.3   46.4   46.4   46  
                           
Depreciation & Amort. 12 2.0 12 2.1 11 1.9 11 1.7 11 1.7
EBITDA     50 8.6 64 10.8 74 12.4 78 12.4 81 12.4
Capital Expenditures   7 1.2 8 1.4 11 1.9 10 1.6 9 1.4
EBITDA less CapEx   43 7.5 56 9.4 63 10.5 68 10.8 71 11.0

 

 

In a fairly stagnant market the Company has grown revenue over 13% over 3 ¾ years (total, not per annum) though most of that growth has occurred more recently, since the start of fiscal 2012.  Most of the growth comes from case-volume growth of what the Company calls its “Power+ Brands”, or non-carbonated brands.  As a further datapoint of growth more recently, net sales in the most recent six month period ended Oct. 27, 2012 increased 6.8% over the six month period in the prior year, with again, most of that coming from the Power+ Brands.

 

Reported revenue growth at peers generally lags revenue growth at FIZZ, as shown by PEP (down 1.5% in FYE ’12 vs 11), DPS (op 1.6% in FYE ’12 vs ’11), MNST (up 22.9% for 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 9mosE 30Sep11), COT (down 2.9% for 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 30Sep11), KO (up 3.2% in FYE ’12 vs 11), and COKE (up 3.3% in 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 30Sep11).  Despite its generally superior growth, FIZZ trades for lower multiples than its peers on most metrics (more on that later).

 

The Company has been steadily increasing margins with gross margin increasing from 29.5% to 32.4% since 2009, operating margin jumping from 6.6% to 10.7% and net margin more than doubling from 2.9% to 7.0%.  Most impressive is the near doubling in operating profit from $38 million in 2009 to $70 million in the LTM 10/27/12 and the jump in net profit from $17 million to $46 million during the same period.

 

The balance sheet is a thing of beauty with no debt and a current ratio of 2.65:1.  The latest quarter ROE was 32.5%. 

 

Valuation:

In terms of valuation I look at FIZZ two ways, absolute and relative.  For relative, the comps I look at are PEP, DPS, MNST, COT, KO and COKE.  See valuation chart at bottom of this page.

 
Fizz trades at a lower multiple than the average of the comps for TEV/Revenues, TEV/trailing EBITDA, TEV/trailing EBIT, Market Cap/Pretax Income and P/E. 
 

It trades lower than all the comps but two for TEV/Revenues and TEV/trailing EBITDA and lower than ALL comps for TEV/trailing EBIT and trailing P/E. 

 

On an absolute valuation basis, using the MagicFormulaInvesting.com criteria and definitions, FIZZ looks good. Return on Capital, defined as EBIT / (net working capital + net fixed assets) works out to 46%, slightly better than the mean and median of the comps (excluding KO which is an outlier due to large negative net working capital) and is higher than 3 of the 5 relevant comps.

 

Earnings Yield in MagicFormulaInvesting.com is defined as EBIT / Enterprise Value.  For FIZZ this is an attractive 12.2% on an absolute basis and is far better than all of the comps, which range from 5.8% to 9.6%.

 

Beverage Comps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

Dr Pepper

Monster

 

Coca

Coca-cola

 

National

 

 

Pepsi Inc.

Snapple

Beverage

Cott

Cola

Bottling

 

Beverage

$ millions, except per sh.

PEP

DPS

MNST

COT

KO

COKE

 

FIZZ

LFYE

29-Dec-12

31-Dec-12

31-Dec-11

31-Dec-12

31-Dec-12

31-Dec-11

 

28-Apr-12

LFQ

   

30-Sep-12

   

30-Sep-12

 

27-Oct-12

 

               

 

Price

75.42

42.47

50.67

9.20

37.73

62.89

 

13.40

 Shares Outstanding

  1,546.9

    209.4

    171.4

     95.2

    4,469

        9.2

 

    46.31

   Equity Market Cap.

116,664

8,893

8,683

875

168,615

580

 

620.5

Short term Debt

4211

250

 

1.9

17874

124.574

 

0

Long term Debt

23732

2554

 

601.8

14736

472.699

 

0

Cash & Equivalents

5711

366

610.59

179.4

16551

93.758

 

48.706

Total Enterprise Value

138,896

11,331

8,073

1,300

184,674

1,084

 

571.8

 

               

 

Net Sales (LTM)

65,492

5,995.0

1,999

2,251

48,017

1,601

 

651.2

Cost of Sales

31,291

2,500

963.1

1,961

19,053

949

 

440.3

   Gross Profit

Gross Profit

34,201

3,495

1,036.0

290

28,964

652

 

211.0

Depr. & Amort.

119

124

         

 

SG&A

24,970

2,279

495.9

178

18,185

562

 

141.3

   EBIT

9,112

1,092

540.1

112

10,779

90

 

69.7

Interest Expense

899

125

 

54

397

36

 

0.1

Other Expense (Inc)

(91)

(11)

(2.0)

0

(1,427)

 

 

0.1

 

Pretax Income

8,304

978

542

57

11,809

53

 

69

Tax

2,090

349

205.5

5

2,723

23

 

23.6

Preferred Divs/MI

36

 

 

5

67

4

 

 

 

Net Income

6,178.0

629.0

336.6

47.8

9,019

27.217

 

45.8

 

 

6,178.0

629.0

336.6

47.8

9,019

27.217

 

45.8

 

               

 

Plus: D&A

2,689

240

20.2

97.7

1,982

62

 

11.0

    EBITDA

11,801

1,332

560

209

12,761

152

 

80.7

 

               

 

CapEx

         2,714

           193

              31

            70

        2,780

             48

 

               9

Shareholder equity

       21,584

        2,280

           890

          623

      33,168

           216

 

          148

 

               

 

LTM EPS

3.99

3.00

1.96

0.50

2.02

2.95

 

0.99

2013 EPS Estimate

4.39

3.08

1.89

0.66

2.14

3.45

 

n/a

2014 EPS Estimate

4.78

3.31

2.31

0.82

2.33

n/a

 

n/a

2015 EPS Estimate

5.22

3.62

2.79

0.89

2.53

n/a

 

n/a

 

 

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

   

 

2013 EBITDA Est.

13,089

1,325

584

227

14,118

n/a

 

n/a

2014 EBITDA Est.

13,921

1,371

675

233

15,113

n/a

 

n/a

2015 EBITDA Est.

14,823

1,444

789

242

16,256

n/a

 

n/a

 

 

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

   

 

2013 EBIT Est.

10,265

1,122

558

124

12,236

n/a

 

n/a

2014 EBIT Est.

10,955

1,174

647

132

13,071

n/a

 

n/a

2015 EBIT Est.

11,738

1,223

753

140

14,135

n/a

 

n/a

 

 

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

   

 

2013 Net Debt

21,351

2,495

(608)

366

17,120

n/a

 

n/a

2014 Net Debt

21,702

2,595

(863)

26

14,396

n/a

 

n/a

2015 Net Debt

22,195

2,697

(1,098)

25

12,900

n/a

 

n/a

 

 

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Bloomberg

   

 

 

             

Mean

 

TEV/Revenues

       2.12

      1.89

      4.04

     0.58

      3.85

      0.68

    2.19

      0.88

 

           

 

 

TEV/LTM EBITDA

11.8

8.5

14.4

6.2

14.5

7.1

10.4

7.1

TEV/2010 EBITDA

10.5

8.6

13.8

 

13.2

 

11.5

 

TEV/2011 EBITDA

9.9

8.4

11.6

3.9

12.1

 

9.2

 

TEV/2012 EBITDA

9.4

8.0

9.6

3.7

11.2

 

8.4

 

 

             

 

 

TEV/LTM EBIT

15.2

10.4

14.9

11.7

17.1

12.1

13.6

8.2

TEV/2010 EBIT

13.4

10.1

14.5

 

15.2

 

13.3

 

TEV/2011 EBIT

12.6

9.8

12.1

6.9

14.0

 

11.1

 

TEV/2012 EBIT

11.8

9.5

10.1

6.4

12.8

 

10.1

 

             

 

 

LTM P/E

18.9

14.1

25.8

18.3

18.7

21.3

19.5

13.5

2010E P/E

17.2

13.8

26.9

13.9

17.6

18.2

17.9

 

2011E P/E

15.8

12.8

21.9

11.2

16.2

 

15.6

 

2012E P/E

14.5

11.7

18.2

10.3

14.9

 

13.9

 

             

 

 

Gross Margin

52.2%

58.3%

51.8%

12.9%

60.3%

40.7%

46.0%

 

EBIT  Margin

13.9%

18.2%

27.0%

5.0%

22.4%

5.6%

15.4%

10.7%

EBITDA Margin

18.0%

22.2%

28.0%

9.3%

26.6%

9.5%

18.9%

12.4%

Net Income Margin

9.4%

10.5%

16.8%

2.1%

18.8%

1.7%

9.9%

7.0%

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
I do not hold a position of employment, directorship, or consultancy with the issuer.
Neither I nor others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

 

Not only is FIZZ a quality company with above average growth and a low, attractive valuation, it is also shareholder focused with a history of returning cash to shareholders through the use of special cash dividends.  Since 2004 FIZZ has returned $8.66 per share to shareholders.  On top of that there is a majority shareholder with 74% of the equity who is 76 years of age.  While his son is President, there always exists the possibility that for estate planning a sale of the company could be under consideration (though I have no direct knowledge of this).  Absent that, continued innovation in new product development, strong management with loads of skin in the game and the habit of returning cash to shareholders should keep the fizz in FIZZ.

 

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    Description

    National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ – Nasdaq) $13.60

     

    Overview:

    National Beverage Corp. (“FIZZ”) is a Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based developer, manufacturer, marketer and distributor of beverages, including flavored soft drinks, juices, sparkling waters and energy drinks.  The company trades at an attractive valuation, has top line growth where others in the industry face challenges, and has a history of returning cash to shareholders.  The largest shareholder is Nick Caporella (age 76) who owns 74% of the company’s outstanding shares.  He is also chairman and CEO of the company.

     

    Business Details:

    FIZZ, established in 1985, produces both carbonated and non-carbonated beverages including soft drinks, energy drinks, juices, teas, still and sparkling waters and vitamin enhanced beverages.  Its brands include Shasta, Faygo, Everfresh, LaCroix, Ritz, Crystal Bay, ClearFruit, Mr. Pure, and Rip It.  Beverage Week ranks FIZZ as the fourth largest branded carbonated soft-drink company in the USA.

     

    The company employs 1,200 and has 12 manufacturing facilities (comprising about two million square feet) across the USA, each equipped to produce canned and bottled beverages.  The Company’s products are sold to supermarkets, national chains, convenience stores, restaurants, hospitals, schools, wholesale clubs and other retailers.  The company uses three primary distribution channels. The “Take Home” channel consisting of national and regional grocers, warehouse clubs, mass merchandisers, wholesalers and discount stores. The “Convenience” channel includes distribution to convenience and gas station outlets by the Company’s own fleet.  The Food Service channel distributes to independent distributors who sell to hospitals, schools, military bases, hotels, etc. 

     

    The company focuses on distinctly flavoured beverages. While colas account for 50% of the soft drink industry’s volume, they account for less than 20% of FIZZ’s volumes.  In 2012 the Company introduced 54 new flavours or package sizes. 

     

    Financial:

    The following table shows income statement and key cash flow data since 2009:

     

            National Beverage Corp.        
            Historic Financial Data          
            FYE   FYE   FYE   FYE   LTM  
    $ mil (except per share) 5/2/09 % 5/1/10 % 4/30/11 % 4/28/12 % 10/27/12 %
    Revenues     575 100.0 593 100.0 600 100.0 629 100.0 651 100.0
    Cost of Goods & Svcs 405 70.5 396 66.8 382 63.6 416 66.1 440 67.6
    Gross Profit     170 29.5 197 33.2 219 36.4 213 33.9 211 32.4
    SG&A       132 22.9 145 24.5 156 26.0 146 23.2 141 21.7
    Operating Income   38 6.6 52 8.7 63 10.5 67 10.7 70 10.7
    Interest Expense   0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
    Other Expense (Inc.)   -1 -0.2 0 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
    Pretax Income   39 6.7 51 8.7 63 10.4 67 10.6 69 10.7
    Income Tax     22 3.8 19 3.1 22 3.6 23 3.6 24 3.6
    Net Income     17 2.9 33 5.5 41 6.8 44 7.0 46 7.0
    EPS       $0.37   $0.71   $0.88   $0.95   $0.99  
    Avg. shs O/S, mm   46.2   46.3   46.4   46.4   46  
                               
    Depreciation & Amort. 12 2.0 12 2.1 11 1.9 11 1.7 11 1.7
    EBITDA     50 8.6 64 10.8 74 12.4 78 12.4 81 12.4
    Capital Expenditures   7 1.2 8 1.4 11 1.9 10 1.6 9 1.4
    EBITDA less CapEx   43 7.5 56 9.4 63 10.5 68 10.8 71 11.0

     

     

    In a fairly stagnant market the Company has grown revenue over 13% over 3 ¾ years (total, not per annum) though most of that growth has occurred more recently, since the start of fiscal 2012.  Most of the growth comes from case-volume growth of what the Company calls its “Power+ Brands”, or non-carbonated brands.  As a further datapoint of growth more recently, net sales in the most recent six month period ended Oct. 27, 2012 increased 6.8% over the six month period in the prior year, with again, most of that coming from the Power+ Brands.

     

    Reported revenue growth at peers generally lags revenue growth at FIZZ, as shown by PEP (down 1.5% in FYE ’12 vs 11), DPS (op 1.6% in FYE ’12 vs ’11), MNST (up 22.9% for 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 9mosE 30Sep11), COT (down 2.9% for 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 30Sep11), KO (up 3.2% in FYE ’12 vs 11), and COKE (up 3.3% in 9mosE 30Sep12 vs 30Sep11).  Despite its generally superior growth, FIZZ trades for lower multiples than its peers on most metrics (more on that later).

     

    The Company has been steadily increasing margins with gross margin increasing from 29.5% to 32.4% since 2009, operating margin jumping from 6.6% to 10.7% and net margin more than doubling from 2.9% to 7.0%.  Most impressive is the near doubling in operating profit from $38 million in 2009 to $70 million in the LTM 10/27/12 and the jump in net profit from $17 million to $46 million during the same period.

     

    The balance sheet is a thing of beauty with no debt and a current ratio of 2.65:1.  The latest quarter ROE was 32.5%. 

     

    Valuation:

    In terms of valuation I look at FIZZ two ways, absolute and relative.  For relative, the comps I look at are PEP, DPS, MNST, COT, KO and COKE.  See valuation chart at bottom of this page.

     
    Fizz trades at a lower multiple than the average of the comps for TEV/Revenues, TEV/trailing EBITDA, TEV/trailing EBIT, Market Cap/Pretax Income and P/E. 
     

    It trades lower than all the comps but two for TEV/Revenues and TEV/trailing EBITDA and lower than ALL comps for TEV/trailing EBIT and trailing P/E. 

     

    On an absolute valuation basis, using the MagicFormulaInvesting.com criteria and definitions, FIZZ looks good. Return on Capital, defined as EBIT / (net working capital + net fixed assets) works out to 46%, slightly better than the mean and median of the comps (excluding KO which is an outlier due to large negative net working capital) and is higher than 3 of the 5 relevant comps.

     

    Earnings Yield in MagicFormulaInvesting.com is defined as EBIT / Enterprise Value.  For FIZZ this is an attractive 12.2% on an absolute basis and is far better than all of the comps, which range from 5.8% to 9.6%.

     

    Beverage Comps

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

       

    Dr Pepper

    Monster

     

    Coca

    Coca-cola

     

    National

     

     

    Pepsi Inc.

    Snapple

    Beverage

    Cott

    Cola

    Bottling

     

    Beverage

    $ millions, except per sh.

    PEP

    DPS

    MNST

    COT

    KO

    COKE

     

    FIZZ

    LFYE

    29-Dec-12

    31-Dec-12

    31-Dec-11

    31-Dec-12

    31-Dec-12

    31-Dec-11

     

    28-Apr-12

    LFQ

       

    30-Sep-12

       

    30-Sep-12

     

    27-Oct-12

     

                   

     

    Price

    75.42

    42.47

    50.67

    9.20

    37.73

    62.89

     

    13.40

     Shares Outstanding

      1,546.9

        209.4

        171.4

         95.2

        4,469

            9.2

     

        46.31

       Equity Market Cap.

    116,664

    8,893

    8,683

    875

    168,615

    580

     

    620.5

    Short term Debt

    4211

    250

     

    1.9

    17874

    124.574

     

    0

    Long term Debt

    23732

    2554

     

    601.8

    14736

    472.699

     

    0

    Cash & Equivalents

    5711

    366

    610.59

    179.4

    16551

    93.758

     

    48.706

    Total Enterprise Value

    138,896

    11,331

    8,073

    1,300

    184,674

    1,084

     

    571.8

     

                   

     

    Net Sales (LTM)

    65,492

    5,995.0

    1,999

    2,251

    48,017

    1,601

     

    651.2

    Cost of Sales

    31,291

    2,500

    963.1

    1,961

    19,053

    949

     

    440.3

       Gross Profit

    Gross Profit

    34,201

    3,495

    1,036.0

    290

    28,964

    652

     

    211.0

    Depr. & Amort.

    119

    124

             

     

    SG&A

    24,970

    2,279

    495.9

    178

    18,185

    562

     

    141.3

       EBIT

    9,112

    1,092

    540.1

    112

    10,779

    90

     

    69.7

    Interest Expense

    899

    125

     

    54

    397

    36

     

    0.1

    Other Expense (Inc)

    (91)

    (11)

    (2.0)

    0

    (1,427)

     

     

    0.1

     

    Pretax Income

    8,304

    978

    542

    57

    11,809

    53

     

    69

    Tax

    2,090

    349

    205.5

    5

    2,723

    23

     

    23.6

    Preferred Divs/MI

    36

     

     

    5

    67

    4

     

     

     

    Net Income

    6,178.0

    629.0

    336.6

    47.8

    9,019

    27.217

     

    45.8

     

     

    6,178.0

    629.0

    336.6

    47.8

    9,019

    27.217

     

    45.8

     

                   

     

    Plus: D&A

    2,689

    240

    20.2

    97.7

    1,982

    62

     

    11.0

        EBITDA

    11,801

    1,332

    560

    209

    12,761

    152

     

    80.7

     

                   

     

    CapEx

             2,714

               193

                  31

                70

            2,780

                 48

     

                   9

    Shareholder equity

           21,584

            2,280

               890

              623

          33,168

               216

     

              148

     

                   

     

    LTM EPS

    3.99

    3.00

    1.96

    0.50

    2.02

    2.95

     

    0.99

    2013 EPS Estimate

    4.39

    3.08

    1.89

    0.66

    2.14

    3.45

     

    n/a

    2014 EPS Estimate

    4.78

    3.31

    2.31

    0.82

    2.33

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2015 EPS Estimate

    5.22

    3.62

    2.79

    0.89

    2.53

    n/a

     

    n/a

     

     

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

       

     

    2013 EBITDA Est.

    13,089

    1,325

    584

    227

    14,118

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2014 EBITDA Est.

    13,921

    1,371

    675

    233

    15,113

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2015 EBITDA Est.

    14,823

    1,444

    789

    242

    16,256

    n/a

     

    n/a

     

     

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

       

     

    2013 EBIT Est.

    10,265

    1,122

    558

    124

    12,236

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2014 EBIT Est.

    10,955

    1,174

    647

    132

    13,071

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2015 EBIT Est.

    11,738

    1,223

    753

    140

    14,135

    n/a

     

    n/a

     

     

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

       

     

    2013 Net Debt

    21,351

    2,495

    (608)

    366

    17,120

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2014 Net Debt

    21,702

    2,595

    (863)

    26

    14,396

    n/a

     

    n/a

    2015 Net Debt

    22,195

    2,697

    (1,098)

    25

    12,900

    n/a

     

    n/a

     

     

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

    Bloomberg

       

     

     

                 

    Mean

     

    TEV/Revenues

           2.12

          1.89

          4.04

         0.58

          3.85

          0.68

        2.19

          0.88

     

               

     

     

    TEV/LTM EBITDA

    11.8

    8.5

    14.4

    6.2

    14.5

    7.1

    10.4

    7.1

    TEV/2010 EBITDA

    10.5

    8.6

    13.8

     

    13.2

     

    11.5

     

    TEV/2011 EBITDA

    9.9

    8.4

    11.6

    3.9

    12.1

     

    9.2

     

    TEV/2012 EBITDA

    9.4

    8.0

    9.6

    3.7

    11.2

     

    8.4

     

     

                 

     

     

    TEV/LTM EBIT

    15.2

    10.4

    14.9

    11.7

    17.1

    12.1

    13.6

    8.2

    TEV/2010 EBIT

    13.4

    10.1

    14.5

     

    15.2

     

    13.3

     

    TEV/2011 EBIT

    12.6

    9.8

    12.1

    6.9

    14.0

     

    11.1

     

    TEV/2012 EBIT

    11.8

    9.5

    10.1

    6.4

    12.8

     

    10.1

     

                 

     

     

    LTM P/E

    18.9

    14.1

    25.8

    18.3

    18.7

    21.3

    19.5

    13.5

    2010E P/E

    17.2

    13.8

    26.9

    13.9

    17.6

    18.2

    17.9

     

    2011E P/E

    15.8

    12.8

    21.9

    11.2

    16.2

     

    15.6

     

    2012E P/E

    14.5

    11.7

    18.2

    10.3

    14.9

     

    13.9

     

                 

     

     

    Gross Margin

    52.2%

    58.3%

    51.8%

    12.9%

    60.3%

    40.7%

    46.0%

     

    EBIT  Margin

    13.9%

    18.2%

    27.0%

    5.0%

    22.4%

    5.6%

    15.4%

    10.7%

    EBITDA Margin

    18.0%

    22.2%

    28.0%

    9.3%

    26.6%

    9.5%

    18.9%

    12.4%

    Net Income Margin

    9.4%

    10.5%

    16.8%

    2.1%

    18.8%

    1.7%

    9.9%

    7.0%

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    I do not hold a position of employment, directorship, or consultancy with the issuer.
    Neither I nor others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

     

    Not only is FIZZ a quality company with above average growth and a low, attractive valuation, it is also shareholder focused with a history of returning cash to shareholders through the use of special cash dividends.  Since 2004 FIZZ has returned $8.66 per share to shareholders.  On top of that there is a majority shareholder with 74% of the equity who is 76 years of age.  While his son is President, there always exists the possibility that for estate planning a sale of the company could be under consideration (though I have no direct knowledge of this).  Absent that, continued innovation in new product development, strong management with loads of skin in the game and the habit of returning cash to shareholders should keep the fizz in FIZZ.

     

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