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8/22/23 4:28PM
"Too Hard" Bucket
CNXC moved into the "too hard" bucket. You could own it for deep value, but who knows what the business looks like in the future. MSFT's GitHub Copilot makes it exceedingly easy to build applications... login to read the rest
Great to see the discussion here, and apologies in advance for the long response – but this AI/Automation topic is key and probably worth some real elaboration from the original CNXC pitch.
As we diligenced CNXC... login to read the rest
Thanks beethoven.
I tend to agree with you - historic multiples should be reduced for the forward looking valuation given the uncertain volume headwinds from AI.
Over the past 10 years, the median (daily) NTM P/E multiples... login to read the rest
TEP acquiring MAJ at twice the current P/E multiple of CNXC
Announced yesterday, Teleperformance SA (TEP) is acquiring Majorel Group Luxembourg SA (MAJ) at EUR 30 per share. This purchase price is 15.6x NTM P/E.
As a point of comparison, CNXC is currently trading at 7.8x NTM
FencePost,
Thanks for the great reply. A couple of questions, if I may.
Revenue growth – Understanding CNXC’s organic growth has been a challenge due frequent M&A. In recent years, it has seen significant headwinds and tailwinds... login to read the rest
eigenvalue,
I don't think your assessment of an 'either or' outcome is the correct way of looking at it. Pure play AI CX technology companies can win by selling their software tools (or entire businesses) to... login to read the rest
Clearly there will be clients that are very slow to move and react to changes, just as there were holdouts that insisted on using only on-premise hardware/software while all the savvy startups moved everything to... login to read the rest
AJP,
Re: our roles in the investing business, I actually heard someone give a talk several years ago to +200 analysts and PMs and he started out by saying "in 10 years, 80% of you won't... login to read the rest
This is a really interesting discussion – thanks to everyone who's contributed. As an investor I've been thinking a lot lately about how chatGPT will automate my own job and I'm still not sure where
Agree. But my questions is if clients don't see CX as a core competency and still want to outsource, could the CX players either buy CX AI software providers or license the software and mark... login to read the rest
I think it's just a completely different core competency. The winners will be AI first companies that know how to train and improve (through fine-tuning and RLHF) good models. The cost differential between running inference... login to read the rest
AI will replace low-level jobs. But even if CX continues to be outsourced, my question is is there internal cannibalization at these CX providers? If they switch from call centers to owned AI software, that... login to read the rest
I agree, I think this entire industry of outsourced customer service is about to be completely turned on its head. If you watch the recent Lex Fridman interview with Sam Altman, he specifically calls out
For a better understanding of generative AI applications for customer experience, watch this video from MSFT: https://dynamics.microsoft.com/en-us/customer-service/overview/
Over time, generative AI tools will become fully integrated into CNXC's workflow. An interesting datapoint is today's trading update provided... login to read the rest
manatee -
Thanks for the interesting write-up. Can you talk more about how they fend off the AI risk? I realize it's small today but it will grow. There's a more developed AI industry that does... login to read the rest
great writeup, in addition to no sellside coverage I think that the absence of replies here + Greenlight ownership really suggest that nobody gaf about this thing.
What do you think about the Webhelp deal at
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