Description
SPECIAL SITUATION: The liquidation value of Mace’s non-core car wash assets exceeds the current EV of the entire company, giving investors the security business for free. Mace has been selling the car washes, and the cash pile keeps growing. Management is egregiously overpaid and represents the biggest hurdle to value realization. Fortuitously, management does not have voting control and activist shareholders have stepped up the fight. Additional involvement by sophisticated investors could help produce a strategic catalyst in six to twelve months.
($ in millions, except per share data)
Share price |
$2.47 |
as of 7/6/2006 |
Shares outstanding |
15.3 |
as of 6/25/2007 (source: 10-K) |
Options outstanding |
4.0 |
as of 12/31/2006 (source: 10-K) |
Options strike |
$3.63 |
(source: 10-K) |
Market value |
$37.7 |
(treasury stock method) |
Cash & ST invest. |
$21.0 |
as of 5/18/2007 (source: press release) |
Debt |
$14.1 |
as of 5/18/2007 (source: press release) |
Enterprise value |
$30.8 |
|
First, the reasons it’s cheap:
Quite a bit of hair grows on MACE, and it wouldn’t surprise me if any one of the following items causes investors to pass outright:
- Management is overpaid and unfriendly to shareholders.
- The Board appears to be in the lap of CEO Louis Paolino.
- The company is late in filing its 10-Q for the quarter ended 3/31/2007.
- The filing delinquency puts the company in violation of Nasdaq listing rules.
- The company recently announced the embezzlement of $340K by a former employee.
If you’re still with me, here is the crux of the investment case:
- Mace had tangible book value of $52 million on 12/31/2006, compared to market value of $38 million on 6/19/2007. The majority of the tangible book relates to the car wash business, including a substantial amount of real estate at historical cost. We estimate that tangible book value has not eroded materially since 12/31/2006.
- Mace has disposed of significant car wash assets at modest premia to book value. The stated goal is to dispose of all car washes. According to a Mace statement on 2/26/2007, “…if Mace is successful in selling its remaining car washes for the prices it has projected, the Company will have close to $3.00 per share in cash, no debt and a security business with approximately $23.5 million in annual sales.”
- Corporate and real estate investment firm Kelly Capital made an unsolicited indication of interest to buy Mace for $3.00 per share on 1/9/2007. Predictably, the Board rejected the Kelly offer without commencing a formal strategic alternatives process.
- Activist investor Lawndale upped its stake to 9% and nominated Board candidates on 6/15/2007. Another fund, Ancora, increased its stake to 9% on 6/26/2007.
- In a letter dated 6/15/2007, Lawndale identified two sources of cash drain that could be eliminated: (1) excessive executive compensation; and (2) costs related to weak internal controls. According to Lawndale, Mace may have “incurred millions of dollars in investigative and legal expenses in the last two years.” We believe another unnecessary cash drain has been (3) the mismanaged growth of Mace’s enterprise security business. The negative impact of these three issues on net worth has been largely offset by the continued disposition of car washes above book value.
- Management does not have voting control, and the Board is not staggered. Directors and executives own 4.8 million shares or 26%, but this figure includes an incredible 3.1 million options (insiders own only 11% of the basic shares). While most of the options are exercisable, they are struck at an average price of approximately $3.63, making most of them anti-dilutive. Therefore, if insiders wanted to boost their voting power, they might be better off buying shares on the open market than exercising options.
- The Board suffered a large withhold vote at the December 2006 annual meeting despite the absence of a contested election, suggesting widespread shareholder discontent.
- The Mace brand is widely recognized in personal defense, so much so that “Mace” and “pepper spray” are often used interchangeably. Mace also has a branded enterprise security business selling surveillance cameras and related products. The company reports the two security businesses as one segment. We view the pepper spray business as a defensible consumer franchise with respectable normalized returns on capital and modest growth, while the enterprise business has higher growth prospects but also more widely distributed return-on-capital prospects, with management quality being of paramount importance (which may explain Mace’s lack of profitability).
- If the incumbent Board is defeated and replaced with shareholder-friendly nominees, the egregious compensation schemes could be reined in and the self-dealing stopped. The cash from the sale of car washes could either be distributed or reinvested in the security business (assuming that high-ROI opportunities are identified).
- To avert what appears increasingly inevitable, Mace’s incumbent Board may have to declare a significant special dividend to placate shareholders and buy time to try to show that incumbent management can grow the value of the security businesses.
BOTTOM LINE: With a shareholder-friendly Board, Mace would be in a position to dividend out $2.50 per share while retaining some cash and branded operating businesses in personal and enterprise security. We estimate the remaining assets might be worth another $1.50-$2.50 per share. Therefore, by effecting change at the Board level, shareholders can eliminate the downside while retaining 60%-100% upside.
If you want to dig deeper, here are some additional data points:
Tangible book value on 12/31/2006 (source: 10-K)
Shareholders' equity |
$56.5 |
Goodwill |
|
(1.6) |
Other intangibles |
(2.9) |
Tangible book value |
$52.0 |
|
|
|
Note: Tangible book consists primarily of car washes (land and buildings) and remained approximately constant from 9/30/2006 to 12/31/2006.
Note: Mace has NOLs of $25 million.
Car wash dispositions since 12/31/2006 (source: 10-K “Subsequent Events”)
Date |
Number |
State |
Amount |
Gain |
1/5/2007 |
1 |
NJ |
$0.4 |
- |
1/29/2007 |
3 |
PA |
$7.8 |
$1.0 |
2/1/2007 |
1 |
NJ |
3/1/2007 |
1 |
PA |
$0.5 |
$0.1 |
3/7/2007 |
1 |
TX |
$0.3 |
$0.0 |
5/14/2007 |
1 |
PA |
$0.1 |
$0.1 |
5/17/2007 |
12 |
AZ |
$19.4 |
$0.4 |
5/31/2007 |
1 |
DE |
$0.2 |
$0.2 |
|
21 |
|
$28.6 |
$1.9 |
Remaining car washes (source: 10-K)
Southern New Jersey |
2 |
|
Austin, Texas |
3 |
|
Dallas, Texas |
7 |
(2 leased) |
Lubbock, Texas |
3 |
|
San Antonio, Texas |
4 |
|
Sarasota, Florida |
6 |
|
Total remaining car washes |
25 |
|
Summary financials by segment (source: 10-K)
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
Car wash segment |
|
|
|
Revenue |
$26.4 |
$27.9 |
$25.8 |
EBIT |
3.1 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
EBITDA |
4.3 |
4.3 |
2.6 |
Assets (12/31) |
84.0 |
75.9 |
42.8 |
Security segment |
|
|
|
Revenue |
$16.6 |
$24.9 |
$23.4 |
EBIT |
(0.4) |
(0.0) |
(2.5) |
EBITDA |
(0.1) |
0.4 |
(2.0) |
Assets (12/31) |
18.8 |
20.2 |
19.1 |
Corporate overhead |
|
|
|
EBIT/EBITDA |
($3.5) |
($3.5) |
($6.3) |
Note: Security Segment consists of Consumer Security Business (Mace pepper spray) and Enterprise Security Business (primarily surveillance cameras). Mace does not break out Consumer versus Enterprise security sub-segments.
Note: 2006 includes: $1.4 million charge for stock-based comp, $1.5 million professional fees related to immigration investigation; $0.2 million charge for embezzlement; $0.1 million goodwill charge.
Stock ownership as of 6/26/2007 (sources: 10-K; Ancora 13D/A)
Owner |
Basic Sh. |
Basic % |
Options |
Diluted Sh. |
Diluted % |
Louis D. Paolino, Jr. |
890,958 |
6% |
1,539,682 |
2,430,640 |
13% |
Other insiders |
821,643 |
5% |
1,536,500 |
2,358,143 |
13% |
All insiders |
1,712,601 |
11% |
3,076,182 |
4,788,783 |
26% |
Lawndale Capital |
1,420,615 |
9% |
- |
1,420,615 |
8% |
Ancora Capital |
1,310,700 |
9% |
- |
1,310,700 |
7% |
Non-filing shareholders |
10,831,466 |
71% |
- |
10,831,466 |
59% |
Total |
15,275,382 |
100% |
3,076,182 |
18,351,564 |
100% |
Note: Voting power of insiders approximates their basic shares owned (options have average strike of $3.63).
Value realization process timeline
- 11/27/2006: Lawndale boosts stake to 7.5%, demands corporate governance changes
- 12/13/2006: Large Withhold vote at Mace’s uncontested annual meeting
- 1/17/2007: Kelly Capital $3.00 indication of interest buried in unrelated Mace 8-K
- 2/26/2007: Mace rejects Kelly offer without commencing strategic alternatives process
- 5/18/2007: Mace sells 12 car washes for $19 million, creates positive net cash position
- 6/15/2007: Lawndale boosts stake to 9.3%, nominates candidates for majority of Board
- 6/26/2007: Ancora Capital boosts stake to 8.6%
- 7/2/2007: Mace files previously delayed 10-K, including audit by Grant Thornton
- Next 6-12 months: Likely disposition of remaining car washes (23 owned, 2 leased)
- Next 12 months: Possible special dividend of $2.50+ to distribute car wash sale proceeds
- December 2007: Likely annual meeting (record date not yet determined)
Web links for further due diligence:
Catalysts
- Filing of delayed 10-Q (delayed 10-K was filed on 7/2/2007)
- Positive developments resulting from activist shareholder pressure
- Positive developments resulting from potential Board change
- Continued sale of car washes and build-up of net cash balance approaching $3 per share
Disclaimer
This is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks. Please do your own independent analysis before buying or selling MACE (or any other stock). We have a long position in MACE at the time of this write-up that can change at any time without notice. There are no plans to provide future updates on our MACE buying or selling activities.
Catalyst
(1) Filing of delayed 10-Q (delayed 10-K was filed on 7/2/2007); (2) Positive developments resulting from activist shareholder pressure; (3) Positive developments resulting from potential Board change; (4) Continued sale of car washes and build-up of net cash balance approaching $3 per share