MURAL ONCOLOGY PLC MURA
December 26, 2023 - 9:33am EST by
member
| 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Price: | 4.43 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 17 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 74 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -275 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | -200 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 32 | |
MrStingy, While in general I agree cash isn’t a value backstop for such cos, that was never the point… even called it speculative in the very first line of the writeup. As a spec, and... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Wishing longs the best here, but reiterating my strong opinion here that cash is not a value-backstop in dev-stage biotech unless the company has already failed and is looking at strategic alternatives... | |
| 30 | |
Wolfowl, Still basically unnoticed, under marketed, and excluded from indexes. Mgmt, while strong on the science, isn’t particularly oriented toward public investors. Still to come 2024 catalysts of naming the candidates for additional trails (IL-18... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
With two more quarters reported and data providers fully accounting for the cash on the b/s, is there any reason why this still trades at a steep discount to cash? | |
| 28 | |
MDNA announced some decent early data yesterday at AACR with their IL-2
https://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-presents-updated-results-single-agent-mdna11-anti
It's nice to see some monotherapy responses with an IL-2.
Last week XLO licensed their IL-12 which is in P1 dose escalation to GILD for... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
4:04 PM 9 Apr '24 MURA-US Mural Oncology presents preclinical data for IL-18 and IL-12 programs at the 2024 American Association for Cancer Research annual meeting ($4.14, 0.00)
Mural Oncology today shared poster presentations with... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
>>4 Apr '24 MURA-US Mural Oncology initiated overweight at Morgan Stanley ($4.53, 0.00)
Target is $13, 187% upside
Analyst is Judah Frommer <<
IL-2:
Points out the greater unmet need in PROC & mucosal with improved safety... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
Looks like the miscalculation was recently corrected on Bloomberg; Bloomberg now shows an enterprise value of -$172m. Thank you for the good and timely idea. | |
| 24 | |
Earnings out:
Cash Position: $270.9m or $16.23/share as of December 31, 2023 $72m mkt cap and negative (-$182m) EV...
Catalyst: Miscalculations of EV should disappear this week upon filing of 10-K. Databases erroneously show positive $88m EV... Mkt cap/Cash is 26.5%... among... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
...would be 2nd on the list at 28.2% of their net cash. This Excel table came from a Fund Manager who had questions on MURA. What happens when MURA is database screen-able in March?! Note... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
So, it seems Mirvetuximab has fast track only approval based on their Ph2, but still awaits full approval, and importantly, has not become a new standard for care.
MURA’s Nemva Ph3 is far along with enrollees... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Thank you 2fly4wifi & Mack.
pcm, IR has been receptive & knowledgeable. | |
| 19 | |
2fly4wifi, thanks for that info, that is very helpful. Question though, wouldn't Alkermes know that too at the time of the spin-off with $275MM? It sounds like all of that was known well before the... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
It's important to note that Mirvetuximab is only approved for a Folate Receptor Alpha positive expressing PROC patients. This subset represents about 35% of the PROC population and Mirvetuximab has a companion diagnostic to confirm... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Thanks for the interesting idea. While the cash, negative EV and spin dynamics are interesting, I wanted to add some context and share some thoughts for what its worth on why the market is most... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Supernova,
Thanks for the 'out loud' thoughts. Burn, new funding, and game theory sure make things tricky... and for biotechs broadly.
Some counter thoughts... I'd quibble with the biotech-only funds "surely have looked... clearly have no... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
Thanks for those additional details. The 3Q burn of $3/share, annualizing to $12, on a $5 stock, is something to behold. Even at a lower burn rate they will burn the equivalent of their market... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
- Burn rate is lower than in the filing when ALKS was owner. At spin they had 150 people, and headcount is now 115. Presumably, the 10k coming in March will show the cash and... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Supernova,
Yes on both safety & early halt. Plus, the fact that they didn't halt in Phase 1 or 2 is encouraging. Investors would be thrilled if they stopped tmro and distributed $14/sh, though I'd hope... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Hi perspicar,
Thanks for the interesting pitch. I know less than nothing about the science here but it sounds like the efficacy around IL-2 is pretty well established and the ph.3 trials are mainly about safety... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
Wrangler,
Yes, comes from company docs… The ~600m includes the 275m given at time of spin in mid November. | |
| 10 | |
perspicar, did they spend $600MM on the MURA pipeline prior to this spin off? Where does that figure come from? | |
| 9 | |
Washwizards,
My sense is the $8-12/sh is a reasonable grazing value target once the tax/index/spin selling subsides, and the financials are screening properly & accurately to investors. This gives nothing for the $600m invested and the... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
Thanks for this interesting special sits writeup. It seems to me like there are classic spinoff and index fund dumping dynamics going on here. Seems like an idea that should work.
I'm curious about your target... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
MrStingy,
There's quite a bit else going on beyond 'Artistry 7' - PROC in phase 3 (see below), so there will be quite a few more shots on goal. Plus they can pivot to salvage cash,... login to read the rest | |
| 6 | |
Wrangler,
Agree the dislocation is obvious, and agree it's worthy of a properly sized position...
This level of discount to cash is uncommon... I think it's more because the cash is temporarily hidden from many (most?).
For addressable... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
Not denying that spin-dynamics have made this co cheaper than it should be, but do you envision a scenario where Nemvaleukin fails and the shareholders get some value out of the cash? In other words, despite... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Astor,
ALKS says their board didn't want the $275m MURA cash burn over 2024 & 2025 to weigh down the parent's cash flow:
ALKS EBITDA: 2024e 2025e$329m $394m with MURA spun out$192m $256m if MURA... login to read the rest | |
| 1 | |
Suppose I should also point out that from a 'cigar-butt' perspective, cash less all liabilities is over $14/share, and it's trading about 1/3rd of that even with the bump up this morning. | |