with the stock at 5.94 and v low/no likelihood of an overbid, i'm closing this out. it didn't work out quite as well as it could have, but it still generated a 43% gross return... login to read the rest
Straw - please excuse the delayed reply. having thought about it a bit more and gone throught the Summerset numbers, i am coming around to your view (ie that the impact on NZ property/retirement values... login to read the rest
congrats. this was a great idea. great risk/reward.
Aside: I am still looking for a merger agrement that does not allow buyer out of deal though! Why can no attorney craft a merger agreement that protects
I agree with your valuation model. Over long run, the IRR here is d+2g+u if multiple of Res Loans remains constant. where d = net income from mgmt fee and g = growth of rel... login to read the rest
MET entered a new firm SIA to sell to EQT at $6/share. No MAC condition, substantially similar other terms. Should be wrapped (in my view) by early September (need shareholder approval which is a formality;... login to read the rest
hi straw: yes, you are right, i like the sector very much long term. i don't think you can go wrong owning a mini-basket, or just focusing on the two premium operators (Ryman/Summerset). The long-term... login to read the rest
puppyeh:
Related to MET:NZ but also the sector, do you think that real estate in general but especially the prospects of Retirement Villages, has been harmed?
Everything I see suggests that Covid and its effects is making... login to read the rest
thanks. i dont think the stock really makes sense at $5.77. To me the $6/share is the worst case outcome. there have been numerous articles in the Aussie press suggesting the MET board will be... login to read the rest
what are your thoughts here? I am surprised stock not up a bit more. seems to suggest that a settlement closer to N$6.50 in the offing. Current stock price has significant chance that no compromise
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/metlifecare-rejects-revised-eqt-takeover-offer-20200629-p5575x
this is behind a paywall, but the Australian Financial Review is fairly clued in with local M&A. Scuttlebutt says EQT bid a revised $5.8/shr, and the board rejected it. As expected though this seems quite... login to read the rest
There have been a number of developments here, so I thought I'd provide an update.
At the recent High Court hearing, the court decided it needed to rule on whether a MAC has occurred, before allowing... login to read the rest
I missed this somehow but the co has announced the court will essentially hear both sides of the complaint on May 28, before deciding if EQT's push to terminate the scheme is valid. If the... login to read the rest
Berman - this is a great catch. I am not a lawyer so I really don't know how these errors are handled in cases like this. You are right they may go with the exact... login to read the rest
hi MJS - the long-stop date ('End Date' in the SIA) is in early September. Given my understanding of how a scheme works there (again I'm working through this for the first time), this should... login to read the rest
Re: Excellent WU : Company specific vs Industry-wide MAC?
2
hi Veritas - sorry I don't know what you mean by the HLS note. But if you're asking if the company has been disproportionately affected versus its industry peers, the answer seems to be no.... login to read the rest
hi Skeptic:
1) basically it is too early to tell. As far as NZ goes, clearly a) the virus was essentially stopped in its tracks with almost zero loss of life; and b) there was no... login to read the rest
thanks for an interesting writeup. you said, " after the shareholder vote, the deal would go to the courts for judge's approval."
Do you have any sense of how long something like that could last? I have... login to read the rest
thanks puppyeh.
1) do you think that the business of retirement homes is impacted by covid, if so, by how much, and is that affected in your downside case? i ask in context of retirement homes that... login to read the rest
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