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18	member 8/14/20 5:31PM Re: what's the right multiple 16
I'm a lot more uncertain on the name due to the pandemic and the lost year of sales. So, I think you are right about the 15X being too high. I do think that competition view available tags
17	member 8/14/20 5:29PM Re: Q2 15
My opinion has shifted on the name due to the pandemic. A lots year of sales, plus a delay in the CCH rollout materially affect the upside due to the patent expiration. The rotating characters... login to read the rest view available tags
16	member 8/14/20 5:20PM what's the right multiple
Given there's roughly seven years to patent expiration, why is 15x the right multiple in the base case? Is the assumption there is a durable revenue stream post patent expiration because its a biologic? 1 view available tags
14	member 3/16/20 7:17PM Strong earnings, cash now $106 million
Despite a weird downtick to end the day, BSTc reported excellent earnings after the close and now has almost $106 million in cash on the books. Crazy strong cash generation also with the good news 1 view available tags
13	member 2/26/20 12:43PM Re: Blowout Xiaflex sales reported by Endo 12
One more point, is that with today's numbers, I can now make a pretty compelling case that peak Xiaflex sales without cellulite should hit $1 billion. With an 10.5% royalty rate, that would give BSTC, view available tags
12	member 2/26/20 7:55AM Blowout Xiaflex sales reported by Endo
Endo Pharma just reported blowout Xiaflex sales up 27% year over year and 23% sequentially to $101.5 million. Xiaflex is now on an annualized run rate of sales over $400 million. Phenomenal growth and great view available tags
11	member 2/26/20 7:51AM Re: flabby butts = cash pay? 10
Yes, this would be private pay. Love the subject line! view available tags
10	member 2/25/20 7:54PM flabby butts = cash pay? 9
Hi - thanks for the interesting writeup. Is it your assumption that if approval for cellulite goes through that it will be a cash pay market? i realize of course it may be silly to think view available tags
9	member 2/14/20 7:20PM Re: Re: Re: Probability of approval and duration of patent expiration. 8
80% confidence it gets approved on July 6, 10% delay for additional information. 10% it's gets denied is my best guess. view available tags
8	member 2/14/20 8:21AM Re: Re: Probability of approval and duration of patent expiration. 7
What probability would you put on FDA approval for the additional indication for reduction of cellulite? view available tags
7	member 2/13/20 1:46PM Re: Probability of approval and duration of patent expiration. 6
From what I have read, the FDA may not want an extension on a biological if there is no real change to the drug, because of political pressure to keep drug prices down. That being... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 2/13/20 12:21PM Probability of approval and duration of patent expiration.
Interesting situation and good write-up. Could you please give more information on why it is unlcear if the label extension to cellulite will result in an extension of the patent which expires 2028? What typically... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 2/10/20 4:28PM Re: Re: Re: Re: liquid diamonds 4
LOL. I don't believe revenue would be increasing at 29% a year for Endo, if this was serious issue, or wasn't very rare. view available tags
3	member 2/09/20 10:52PM Re: Re: liquid diamonds 2
There are all kinds of jokes people can make for sure. All joking aside the drug is well tolerated if done correctly and is the only approved pharmaceutical treatment. 1.8% of the people that have Peyronie's disease... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 2/09/20 8:02PM Re: liquid diamonds 1
Quarterly injections to the penis?! And my wife is wondering why I'm walking around the kitchen hunched over now. No disrespect to Issambres. Very interesting idea. Risk-reward definitely appears asymmetric. view available tags
1	member 2/09/20 5:26PM liquid diamonds
"Xiaflex is a derivative of chemicals that the clostridium bacteria produce to invade the tissues they infect. The chemical, known as collagenase, breaks down the collagen in cell walls that puts up a defense against... login to read the rest 3 view available tags

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			2023	2024
Price:	20.50	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	204	P/E	14	0
Market Cap (in $M):	4,200	P/FCF	14	0
Net Debt (in $M):	2,500	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	6,700	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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