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AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
94
member
1/05/21 11:10AM
Re: Re: call with company
93
My estimate is that the DAC drops down to $35mm (i include all payments not just "DAC") in 2022 and then tails off to almost nothing.
However it's probably safe to assume that they will do
if you assume low single digit growth after 2021, what's a reasonable estimate for DAC on 2022, 2023, etc - absent new M&A does it trend down to zero over a few years?
recently had a call with the CFO. Not a ton of new information but a few points that were new to me
1) the 1H close is very broad. My sense is they are looking at... login to read the rest
The deal was already bumped up from the original offer. I dont know how they are valuing stagwell but the asset has less leverage and better growth (although I dont know for sure what their... login to read the rest
if they do $3B and 17% it's a massive home run - especially if they do some smart stuff with the cashflow generation.
I need to go over everything closer as well.
Ideally Mark executes and starts
Stock worth at least $4 agreed. Its an execution story from here. Based on where its trading hard to see much downside - problem is stock not very liquid and merger probably complete in 2Q.... login to read the rest
the CF generation is slightly higher than i expected (5% or so). Cost synergies about 5mm a year less but does not include any revenue synergies which should add some incremental EBITDA.
Once the leverage drops... login to read the rest
Hi Spike. Press release out tonight. Numbers in the release are very consistent with my assumptions that we previously discussed. Hopefully this gives the market more confidence to bid up this asset. We will see,
cupmachine - are you hearing anything regarding the potential transaction? Feel like there has to be a lot of deal fatigue here given how long the process is going on for. The bonds are still... login to read the rest
pretty much exactly what i am getting.
in short order this will be below 3x leverage. It should become less of an issue then. Also - having a much larger market cap opens up the name... login to read the rest
As of now I have FY21 EBITDA post $35 million of synergies of $360 million.
Assuming some taxes & negative WC, D&A of $65 million, IE of $80 million, capex of $30 million can get to... login to read the rest
how much FCF per share are you getting? if they can get the leverage down over the next few years then this can revalue. The one issue is this Stagwell control - i am not... login to read the rest
I think once more information is released about Stagwell and we get closer to a deal close, stock will start to revalue. I still get $5/share but I am assuming dilution from Goldman. If that... login to read the rest
They had anti dilution kick in when Stagwell first invested. The second paragraph below does states that the company could redeem them but would have to be at the $7.42/share value basically. So they either have... login to read the rest
i would follow up with MDCA management on the GS dilution. They specifically told me no dilution.
I followed up with Stagwell and they said no updated Debt numbers - but i think i was not
The only stagwell net debt number I have is what they disclosed when they announced the combination in late June. Net debt of $244 million.
MDCA current net debt 3Q20: $935.1 million ($111.7 million in Minority... login to read the rest
hi - can you point me to the current stagwell debt - i only see year end numbers.
Also i don't seem to be able to tie out the net debt - but that might be... login to read the rest
There isn't a ton of information so I tried to apply the 26% as best as I understood it. The waterfall is as follows:
EBITDA FY21 PF = $353 million (MDCA: $190, Stagwell: $128, Synergies: $35)
Share... login to read the rest
my numbers essentially jive with yours.
Also taking a really conservative stance on 2020 Pro-forma EBITDA and taking a haircut to Stagwell's $128 million disclosed EBITDA = $300 million EBITDA FY20 post synergies. Would make combined... login to read the rest
I thought it might make sense to refresh of MDCA from when it was last updated in March of 2019.
I would encourage those new to the story to refer to past write ups.
Since Mark Penn... login to read the rest
thanks for the color Cup -
i think this is the best that the company was going to get as you point out. the process was quite disappointing i would think to shareholders playing for a... login to read the rest
I think it is too early to tell, but this is defintely the best news we have heard coming out of this company over the last year.
Seems like dilution between Goldman/Stagewell is basically 40% of... login to read the rest
looks like they put out a press release that earnings will be on the 15th.
>>>>>earnings should be out soon, i would expect to see a press release sometime in the next week with the date
i thin it's been clear for a while that Accenture didn't want to buy the whole thing. They have wanted to just buy one of the agencies. I have thought personally that this was the... login to read the rest
...and the pain continues. market lost faith here - the fact that it is taking so long to get a deal, is a resounding negative. Downgrade by BMO today highlights some of the ongoing problems... login to read the rest
it doesn't appear that the market likes this news.
i think they structure this as a 100m investment for 20mm shares (to get to their $5 price, but could be 22.50 at $4.50 so something like... login to read the rest
news this AM is interesting. https://adage.com/article/agencies/stagwell-eyes-investment-mdc/316912/
Article states Stagewell might put in $100 million investment. Read somewhere else that they are taking a minority stake - So MDC is a $150 million market cap company, dont... login to read the rest
another day of selling. the last few days have been quite bad for MDCA stock but on lowish volume.
i think folks are worried about the lack of earnings but i have to think they are... login to read the rest
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