Value Investors Club / Lincoln National (LNC)

Lincoln National LNC

March 24, 2020 - 1:51pm EST by

pcm983

			2020	2021
Price:	22.00	EPS	nm	nm
Shares Out. (in M):	195	P/E	nm	nm
Market Cap (in $M):	4,290	P/FCF	nm	nm
Net Debt (in $M):	0	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	0	TEV/EBIT	nm	nm

Description

LNC is trading at ~.3x book value ex AOCI - almost at the financial crisis lows

I've been bearish and rightly so on many L&A names - but there is a price for everything

LNC is rock solid and the business has been massively de-risked since the financial crisis - I think pre-tax hit to book value is likely around 500mm-1bn from the current turmoil - so I think it's safe to assume book value of ~$60 pro forma - $20 / 60 =~ .3x book value

I think this business is worth ~.8-1x book value

Also from the FT today:

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

you cant panic forever, it gets tiring.....

-2 show sort by