Description

Lasertec offers an attractive way to benefit from a particularly difficult hurdle in the ever-present pursuit of cost reductions in the semiconductor manufacturing industry.  Specifically, Lasertec is uniquely (perhaps to the point of being the only supplier for a specific type of test equipment) positioned to allow cutting edge fabs to improve EUV yields which is a critical technology in shrinks below 7nm. It is initially a bet on the continued arms race among TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.  And, the Company should have a runway of growth as EUV technology propagates beyond bleeding edge semiconductor manufacturing. 

Read no further if long tail technology businesses are not your bailiwick.

Summary thesis:

·        FCF yield of 9%+ as of FY 6/2025 compounding at 50%+ which should offer at least 50% upside.

·        Yield is king.  Lasertec makes that happen.  Initial yields on sub-7nm were/are below 70%.  Improving yield provides a massive ROI. 

·        Migration from 7nm to 5nm is difficult.  Wafer costs (estimated by TSMC) at 5nm are ~$17k vs ~$9k at 7nm   (already arguably at cutting edge).

·        Lasertec’s key anctinic blank inspection tool is a unique critical value add and currently has a 2 year build time implying a long runway even from existing customers.

·        As further evidence of the competition in $20B+ fabs, Samsung is being displaced by TSMC due to inability to compete [BELOW]

Background

Why bother?

A 7nm to 5nm node migration saves approximately 15-50% on key KPIs (admittedly wide range). If you can’t compete, you are toast.  Globalfounderies gave up.  Samsung might be next which strikes me as crazy and additional optionality.

“TSMC's next-generation process technology — N3 — will provide a full node improvement over N5. In particular, the contract maker of semiconductors promises an up to 15% performance gain (at the same power and transistor count), an up to 30% power reduction (at the same clocks and complexity), and an up to 70% logic density gain. One of the most interesting details about N3 is that it will use EUV for up to 'over 20 layers,' according to ASML.”

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“Samsung appears to be losing the semiconductor race to TSMC, and it looks like this outcome has to do with Samsung’s inability to secure enough semiconductor production equipment for its EUV processes. Or rather, it may have more to do with TSMC beating Samsung to the punch and securing enough EUV production equipment ahead of time.

By the end of the first quarter of 2021, TSMC was able to increase its contract manufacturing market share by 8 points compared to Q1 2019. It had a share of 56%, outperforming Samsung who has lost 1% market share in the same quarter. But more worrying for Samsung is that TSMC has secured major US customers including Apple and Advanced Micro Devices.”

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Financials

On a comparative basis, Lasertec trades at significant premium to its’ closest comps.  However, its’ market cap is significantly below other companies in its’ peer group.

While I would never purport Lasertec to have the TAM that ASML has, I would like to note that the largest multiple for which ASML traded over the last 15 years (outside of the last 2) preceded a massive stock run.

 Risk:

·        EUV adoption is priced in

·        KLAC and others are working on competing products

·        It is expensive

Catalyst

• Continued tightness in semi capacity
• Inability of INTC and Samsung to keep up with TSMC