2001 | 2002 | ||||||
Price: | 1.00 | EPS | |||||
Shares Out. (in M): | 0 | P/E | |||||
Market Cap (in $M): | 25 | P/FCF | |||||
Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT |
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# | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
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14 | |
Since I sold my shares at 1.90-1.95 following the announcement, I don't have any insight....my gut tells me to stay away....any delays and legal costs and distraction and etc...., as was stated in the previous post, is bad news. Sorry about the lack of feedback or info. | |
13 | |
1) Have heard two rumors: a) Pres. is a philanderer and the female VP-Fin. caused this out of spite; b) this is a spillover from the SEC inv. of Homestore.com. Acctg. of Adv. deals w/HOMS. Any other feedback? 2) If this enmeshes the co. in lawsuits/SEC inquiries for 6 mos., what kind of burn rate are we looking at? If it's 25cts/qtr, our $2 cash can turn into $1.50, minus legal fees, fines......well, you get the idea..... thanks for any feedback. | |
12 | |
Any idea what it might be about? And how do you handicap the deal now that they're under investigation? | |
11 | |
Tank, Thanks for you feedback; I'd kinda hoped for a dip to 1.90 to take the risk-arb play; at 2.02 and with your comments, I'll think I'll put this one on the back pages. Thanks again. | |
10 | |
To answer your question about where in the 2 to 2.20 range it will ultimately fall. From a portfolio management perspective, it makes sense to take the money off the table at these market prices (around 2.00). The last 10 or 20 cents or 5 to 10 percent, doesn't compensate you for the risk that the deal is renegotiated or management stips cash from its balance sheet somehow. I sold my shares. Arbs may want to stay in. Different games are being played on this one... | |
9 | |
Tank, Disappointing yes; but a profit's a profit. Any idea if the cash payout will be more toward the 1.80 or the $2.00 level? (With the 20cts to follow....). Thanks. | |
8 | |
Looks like cash does have some value....althought the operating business looks to be valued by LNTY management to be worth zippo. Wondering what kind of deal management is getting here? The other shareholders aren't getting anymore than they could have gotten if everyone went home at the end of this work week and didn't report for work on Monday.....kind of disappointing really. | |
7 | |
I also listened. And I would agree that some good things happened from a financial standpoint. Up until now, L90 was losing around $4M per quarter, and with the sale of the technology business (adMonitor that is) it looks like they have more than cut that loss in half. So cash burn from now on out appears to be drastically reduced. Good news, especially if you look at the cash balance as your margin of safety. Which I do. But in line with your findings, I do think it is safe to consider the remaining business a non-proprietary business. The barriers to entry on not huge. They do have solid customers and their revenues are real though. From a fundamental standpoint, the industry changes (competitors falling away) should bode well in a recovery. A recovery will happen, it really is just a matter of when. When this happens, L90 is going to make money. When they make money, what is it's value? My simple answer is: A lot more than a -$35M! If they can (a) limit their cash burn to $2M per quarter or $8M over the next 12 months and (b) continue adding customers and retaining customers as they have been and (c) catch a nice break and operate in a better advertising environment, then this company will have value beyond it's cash value. In the end, it is very likely that in 12-18 months we are looking at a business with around $45M or $50M in cash on hand and cash flow positive. That means around $2 per share in cash plus the present value of future positive cash flows. That is my thesis, and I'm sticking to it. The sale of adMonitor to Doubleclick shows me that management is rational and the call shows me they are still optimistic. | |
6 | |
I listened to the LNTY conference call yesterday, and would like your comments. On the positive side, cash seems to have stabilized, and may be heading up slightly. Also, the division that was sold was a money black hole. OTOH, the company is still a long way from break even, and A/R seems to have soared relative to sales. With the sale of its technology division, is this company now just a glorified and specialized ad agency, or is there something more proprietary about it? Thanks. | |
5 | |
Obviously any catalyst to unlock the remaining value of a company selling at such a discount to cash is a good thing from a short term perspective. I am just as interested to learn the value LNTY got for its technology assets from Doubleclick. The letter was hostile and raised some interesting points. The company's response to this type of criticism will point give us some insight into their ability to think rationally about shareholder value. If they recoil and fight too hard, use up the cash at a rapid clip and shut their minds to other alternatives, then LNTY at $1 will not prove too cheap....we'll see. At $1, the "we'll see" scenario makes this an interesting case. | |
4 | |
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/011017/law006_1.html Any thoughts on this? | |
3 | |
Well - certainly the track record thus far has been dismal. To answer the first set of questions: banner ads aren't the only way to draw internet users to a product or advertisement. The web has been tinkering with and exploring multiple different methods like pop up screens or background offerings and email solicitations. I think you've probably noticed them. Additionally, they are working on improving the look and effectiveness of some banner ads. L90 prides itself in being very creative with its advertising clients in developing multiple solutions for marketing their wares. I don't know the figures off the top of my head, but LNTY's revenue per impression is a lot higher the industry competitors, showing that their clients see some difference in value. Can they make money? certainly not on this revenue base of 45M. My guess is that management isn't hellbent on driving this thing into the ground. My assumption is that they are rational business people who will realistically look at the company's prospects and come to a logical decision. They have literally hit a brick wall in the development of their company with the internet crash and advertising depression. Dumb luck no doubt but I feel there is some real value in advertising on the web. Are we compensated at $1 per share....my answer stands at yes. As far as management not buying one share....that is news to me...and interesting news at that. Smart move on their parts over the past 12 months...may not be dumb after all. | |
2 | |
Management has on numerous occasions publicly opined that their stock is "undervalued" and an "attractive investment"; yet not one one officer, or director has bought a single share of stock. Neither have they instituted a stock buyback. After announcing the June results, they pushed back their timetable for achieving profitability. This is likely to happen again in the aftermath of the WTC attacks. (Doubleclick has already warned). I am worried that this green, aggressive,optimistic, but financially naive team will plow through all the cash. At $40m of sales, why can't they make money? Isn't it time to reign in some expenses? Would Omnicom be interested in buying the whole thing? They already own a chunk of stock. | |
1 | |
What evidence do you have that management might return capital and subject themselves individually to one of the worst job markets in the last number of years? Additionally, you admit that banner ads don't work well. In fact, banner ad rates have declined consistently even before the economy began to weaken. If banner ads don't work, what prospect is there for this company to earn a return on the existing capital base and stop burining cash? |
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