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9/21/20 11:27AM
Partner Contribution
5rocks or anyone else:
I am seeking to build a basic model for unit economics (pre tax cash flows), and I am struggling to understand the accounting/cash flows around Partner Contributions, both under IAS 17 and... login to read the rest
Found both of these interesting and useful in terms of framing the investment case:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2020/04/10/the-anti-wework-how-mark-dixon-built-his-coworking-company-to-survive-coronavirus/#11789d3d621b
https://fortune.com/2020/06/24/offices-coronavirus-regus-spaces-iwg-ceo-covid-19/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-06-25/sternlicht-sees-nyc-worst-off-as-pandemic-takes-toll-on-real-estate-video?sref=dDBMMhhT
whole thing is interesting, but around the 15 min mark he talks about how much money WeWork is making at some of the properties they lease
fiverocks19 you wrote "At a 3x revenue multiple, we see high-teen levered IRR's for MFA's. Post-crisis with diminished competition, the IRR's could easily be in the low or even mid-20's and could support 2.5x or... login to read the rest
Re: Outstanding Results; FCF Positive in March/April; V-Shaped Recovery in Asia/Germany; Playing Off
21
This is a surprisingly good print. Clearly IWG members are treating the space more like offices
But in prior downturns, while revs didn't fall that much, EBITDA was cut in half (in 2008) or went to 0... login to read the rest
Thanks for sharing. Interesting stuff.
- Probably too late for WW, but interesting pivot from "elite community" to "flexibility" for WW. And they now sound like every other office farm and do not deserve higher rents,... login to read the rest
Mason-
That's what we initially thought too. But the company's CFO expressed confidence there are a lot of levers to pull on working capital. Our impression was that working capital has a reasonable probability of being a source
why would working capital be a source of cash this year? i would imagine if occupancy is down, they have to pay more customer deposits than they take in. some of their customers may also
Ray Palmer-
IWG owns 33 properties in the UK (primarily in the South of England), primarily as a result of IWG's acquisition of a company called Basepoint in 2017 that owned rather than leased its properties.
The... login to read the rest
i was looking at the end of q3 price of 409. i guess while WeWork was already having issues by then, it didnt start impacting market pricing until later in the quarter. another question:
seems like... login to read the rest
Mason-
Here are IWG's share prices over the period in question:
1/31/20: 441.6p
10/31/19: 383.4p
7/31/19: 378.9p
4/30/19: 339.9p
Looks to me like the company received credit as its business improved.
fiverocks
P. 34 of the annual mentions holdings $150m of property investments on the balance sheet. Do you know what those are? I'm guessing some type of interest in their centers, but there are a variety
thanks for the interesting idea. you state, " Our due diligence indicates a substantial improvement in profitability in late-2019 and early-2020 following WeWork's failed IPO, especially in the UK and US. We track over 50 WeWork... login to read the rest
https://fortune.com/2020/04/02/softbank-scraps-deal-buy-wework-stock-adam-neumann/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=term-sheet&utm_content=2020040213pm
Hard to see how this doesn't end up in restructuring.
Here's our *guess* for what happens next. Most or all WW equity gets wiped out. WeWork closes 1/2 its locations, maybe more. The remaining sites raise... login to read the rest
Thanks for the write-up. We used to own IWG a few years ago, when it was called Regus. Have not kept close with IWG for a while so perhaps things have changed, but our recollection... login to read the rest
Thanks for the idea.
You wrote that "The average tenant lease is 12 months (up from 8 months a few years ago as IWG’s tenant mix has shifted strongly towards large multi-nationals with good credit). IWG... login to read the rest
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