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18	member 10/07/02 7:09AM Research Blurb
For anyone still following DAP/AAP (From Breifing.com): Advance Auto (AAP) 51.65 -2.35: Analysts left AAP's analyst meeting yesterday impressed with mgmt's initiatives to improve store-level operations and productivity. Lehman Brothers believes co's discount auto integration... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 2/07/02 7:28AM AAP
Elan, Having been out of the stock for some time, I haven't followed it; thanks for pointing this out. Can't say either of us is surprised; they went public for a reason: to provide a market... login to read the rest view available tags
16	member 2/06/02 6:44PM 1 question answered
Sparky - in my initial post to this idea, I asked what kind of investors the majority owners of Advance would be - a quick exit or building value for the long term. I... login to read the rest view available tags
15	member 1/15/02 12:54PM SSS
SSS growth of 5.2% slightly below last year's SSS, while most of AAP's competitors are seeing higher SSS growth. AZO and ORLY seeing double digit SSS growth. Perhaps some of this may be... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 1/15/02 11:54AM AAP Numbers
PR today from AAP, raising 2002 erns to 2.10-2.15 vs 1.70-1.90. Said 4th Q erns are at the high end of analyst forcasts. Stock is up $2+. view available tags
13	member 12/02/01 6:00PM general
Elan, Thanks again for your thoughts. I'm not a real expert on any particular industry; sort of Jack-of-all-trades syndrome. Best of luck to you. view available tags
12	member 11/30/01 11:59AM auto parts makers
Sparky - My knowledge of the auto industry is only as it potentially impacts AZO, so I know nothing about NOBL and not a lot about most specific auto parts makers (though I know some... login to read the rest view available tags
11	member 11/30/01 11:36AM OT-NOBL
Elan, Any thoughts on NOBL? Bot it last Dec. at $4 on tax-loss selling blowoff. Has done fairly well. Might be too small for your tastes? view available tags
10	member 11/30/01 11:00AM Analyst Reco.
Zacks reports that "Analyst Bret Jordan"-never heard of him-says AAP is his 2nd favorite pick. No real details. Transcript of BB interview with Larry Castellani has him predicting '02 erns of 1.70 to 1.95, before merger view available tags
9	member 11/30/01 6:49AM AAP as an...
Elan, Thanks for your insights on the industry. The uncertainty and opaqueness of AAP going fwd was why I was generally playing this as a restructuring situation. I am just torn by this unclear situation, and... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 11/29/01 7:58PM AAP as an investment
Sparky, The economics of the industry should be very good for at least the next 3 years due to various trends I've written about on the AZO board (aging car fleet, weakening economy, etc.). Advance... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 11/29/01 1:34PM AAP
Elan, Thanks for posting. Heard a few weeks ago that Nov28 would be the date. Had meant to post the new price all day. As I write, it's 42.80, which is 18.52 on the old DAP.... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 11/29/01 11:03AM AAP began trading
The merger of Advance and Discount Auto parts is complete and began trading this morning under the symbol AAP. Opening price was 40.15 which translates to a consideration of 17.84 for DAP (7.5 + view available tags
5	member 11/28/01 5:02PM Deal completed
According to a press release issued today, the DAP/Advance merger will be completed and begin trading under the symbol AAP tomorrow. The financing has apparently come through. view available tags
4	member 10/29/01 7:23PM financing
Elan, I appreciate your skepticism; a friend says "They never pay you more and they never close early". The only info I've been able to dig up was a copy of a high-yield bond service report... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 10/29/01 9:08AM junk financing
I don't closely follow the junk bond financing markets. But today's WSJ article (C1: Some Companies Weather Squeeze on Credit) described how junk bond financing has just about come to a halt since 9/11,... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 10/24/01 10:53AM questions
Elan, As you state, Advance is harder to analyze because it is a privately-held company. I have relied on guidance from the publicly-released PR's, phone calls to DAP, and a little private research I've been able... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 10/24/01 12:30AM Questions
Sparky, While the idea sounds reasonable on the surface, a perusal of the S-4a brings up a number of questions as to whether the new merged entity is as sound as AZO, ORLY, or even PBY.... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2012	2013
Price:	15.26	EPS	$0.54	$0.85
Shares Out. (in M):	61	P/E	28.3x	18.0x
Market Cap (in $M):	927	P/FCF	25.4x	13.5x
Net Debt (in $M):	-51	EBIT	48	85
TEV (in $M):	876	TEV/EBIT	18.4x	10.4x

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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