Description
HFF is a fast growing boutique real estate investment bank that IPO’d on January 31, 2007. It operates out of 18 offices nationwide and has approximately 130 transaction professionals and approximately 270 support associates. In 2005, it advised on approximately $32 billion of completed commercial real estate transactions, more than a 40% increase compared to the approximately $22 billion of completed transactions HFF advised on in 2004.
It provides the following services to clients: debt placement, investment sales, structured finance, private equity, investment banking and advisory, note sale and advisory and commercial loan servicing.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were joint book runners on the IPO.
Valuation
The IPO priced at $18, a point above the expected range of $15 to $17, and was 10x oversubscribed. At its current price, it’s trading at a sizable discount to the average of its much larger and slower growth public comparables. The company has a net cash position, compared to JLL and CBG which have modest leverage.
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Market |
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Enterprise |
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Price / |
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EV / |
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Price |
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Value |
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Value |
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2006E EPS |
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2007E EPS |
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2006E EBITDA |
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2007E EBITDA |
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HFF |
$19.00 |
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699 |
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687 |
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22.3x |
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19.9x |
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12.5x |
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11.4x |
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Comparables |
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JLL |
$104.28 |
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3,808 |
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3,969 |
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21.8x |
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21.2x |
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14.6x |
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14.6x |
CBG |
$37.40 |
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8,428 |
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8,716 |
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25.3 |
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20.5 |
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14.2 |
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10.1 |
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Average |
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23.5x |
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20.9x |
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14.4x |
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12.4x |
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Implied HFF price |
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$20.03 |
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$19.92 |
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$21.18 |
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$19.81 |
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Difference from current price |
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5.4% |
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4.8% |
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11.5% |
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4.3% |
At approximately 11x EBITDA with expected 20%+ top growth, and best in industry margins, with almost no ongoing maintenance capex, its current price represents an extremely compelling entry point. Further, I believe that HFF deserves a premium multiple to JLL and CBG due to superior operating metrics and better growth prospects. As a smaller company, it has more room to grow (HFF has hired 25% of its transaction professionals within the past year), and each incremental dollar of revenue is worth more to HFF than its peers. Stated another way, HFF has unarguably higher top line growth (it has the whole country to expand in), and with the highest margins in the business, each top line dollar is worth a lot more than its comps, yet the stock is trading in reverse of that. Management believes it can grow EBITDA at a 30%+ CAGR to $150mm (from $60mm currently) within 3 years, which is a very sizable disconnect from the way the stock is currently discounted, and even if HFF achieves a fraction of this growth, it should be a home run.
2003 - 2005 Revenue CAGR |
HFF |
37.30% |
CBG |
33.60% |
JLL |
21.50% |
TCC |
12.80% |
GBE |
7.40% |
LTM EBITDA Margins |
HFF |
24.70% |
CBG |
17.20% |
JLL |
15.10% |
TCC |
12.50% |
GBE |
2.70% |
History
The company has been in its current form since 1998, and has operated continuously as an independent company. Since 2003, the company has operated as a private partnership with John Pelusi as the CEO.
Timeline:
January 1998: |
Holliday Fenoglio, L.P. acquired Fowler Goedecke Ellis & O’Connor and all Holliday Fenoglio entities became Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, L.P. (“HFF”) |
March 2000: |
HFF acquired by Lend Lease. HFF operates independently as a wholly owned subsidiary |
June 2003: |
HFF MBO from Lend Lease, the company is now independent again |
January 2007: |
HFF IPO |
Business & Industry Overview
The company is a strict advisory business, and does not manage assets, or compete with its clients in any way. The company believes this is a key selling point of its firm; most of its competitors house asset management businesses. Another benefit of the strict advisory model is that there is almost no capital expenditure requirement for expansion, therefore a % of incremental revenue flows straight to the bottom line. The company’s two primary businesses are investment sales (46% of revenues), and debt placement (~50% of revenues) and as such is highly levered to the real estate capital markets—the outlook for capital flows is the strongest its ever been, and continues to grow rapidly (see 1/31/07 JLL earnings report / conference call transcript).
US CMBS Volume |
2001 |
67 |
2002 |
52 |
2003 |
78 |
2004 |
93 |
2005 |
169 |
2006 |
206 |
US Investment Sales Volume |
2001 |
76 |
2002 |
102 |
2003 |
120 |
2004 |
202 |
2005 |
304 |
2006 |
357 |
The above growth has been supported, and will remain robust because of capital inflows, and increased allocations to real estate. Since 1995, the average pension fund allocation to real estate has grown from under 4% to 9% (and growing) currently—this capital will need to be deployed. Blackstone (a loyal client of HFF) is in the midst of raising its largest real estate fund ever, Angelo Gordon recently raised a fund, and thousand of other real estate funds have cropped up, and will have deploy capital over the next few years. This capital will need to be deployed over the next few years and support continued record high transaction volumes.
Equity Capital Flows to Real Estate |
2001 |
31 |
2002 |
28 |
2003 |
34 |
2004 |
44 |
2005 |
51 |
2006 |
59 |
In addition to being able to ride favorable macro trends, the company has aggressively been building its business organically and has hired 40 new professionals in 2006, or about one quarter of its professional staff—these new producers have yet to add to HFF’s bottom line, and this future production is not at all reflected in street estimates. Production from these new employees is just now starting to ramp up (1st half of 2007 according to management), and the company will see the benefits from these employees in 2007 and 2008. Unlike its competitors, HFF has yet to expand internationally, which may be a future growth vehicle for the company.
And for a more immediate catalyst, HFF is engaged by Blackstone to raise financing and sell assets for its EOP transaction. This should provide a nice windfall for HFF in 1Q and 2Q of 2007. The CEO’s ties to Blackstone run deep as HFF also worked on a host of very successful Blackstone transactions over the past few years, and the founder of the Blackstone Real Estate Group is Chairman of HFF.
The company has a best of breed board of directors including George Miles (AIG, Wesco), John Kukral (former Blackstone real estate CEO), and Deborah McAneny (John Hancock). CEO John Pelusi (51) has led the company since its founding, and spearheaded the MBO from Lend Lease in 2003. The company has had remarkably low turnover and the top 25 transaction professionals have average tenure with HFF of 13.5 years.
Ownership
Post-IPO the company continues to operate as a quasi-private partnership. It will be jointly owned by 100% employee owned operating partnerships (60% of pro forma HFF ownership), and the public float (40% of pro forma ownership). Each partnership unit will be convertible into a share public stock. Also important and assuring incentives remain aligned with shareholders is that 78% of the company’s managers are owners, and 62% of YTD revenue was generated by owners.
All major producers are on long term employment contracts with harsh non-competes, and have 5-year staggered lockups, and partner can sell shares until 2009. The company also has an aggressive “eat what you kill” compensation structure, whereby producers get to keep 50% of what they bring in to the firm. Every two years, will continue to promote new partners into the operating partnership entity, and thereby maintain incentives of a private firm while having the liquidity of a public company. All the key aspects of the company’s partnership operating structure remain in tact.
Summary
HFF's relative and absolute valuation is disconnected from the business's fundamentals, and the valuation gap should be narrowed and correct positively as investors begin to more fully understand the business.
Catalyst
- Analyst coverage initiated
- 4Q earnings results (will be very good)
- Windfall from recent large Blackstone transactions