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12/28/06 12:23PM
any chance you still follow th
I've been an owner since the write-up. It's been a long, strange trip, but I was able to double down in the $4s and $5s several times, even as the company derisked. So,... login to read the rest
Good news. I assume this is the $21m award, but the press release is not entirely clear. It says the original ruling was made on January 30, 2004. RC didn't announce the ruling until March... login to read the rest
Might be a rogue award, but it's troubling. You don't often hear of "runaway arbitrators", a more likely interpretation is bad acts by RC. In the call they mentioned legal issues with the talent for... login to read the rest
What are your thoughts on the Arbitration ruling today? It seems to have really caught the company by surprise considering they had indicated on the call just yesterday that a ruling was not expected... login to read the rest
The quarter really sucked. Period. And it is hard to get information from them. Which makes me uncomfortable. Having said that, I suppose this is why we try to buy value... login to read the rest
I don't normally put too much weight into a quarterly announcement, but I was pretty surprised with the increased level of expenses. Any thoughts Pokey?
but what can you do? I've already bought some more, although buying illiquid stocks in August is always scary! Trades so funky. Bascially traded a million shares after the recommendation and then
Glad to hear it! Just had lunch with CFO. He thinks we're near a low in NG prices. Hope he's right; and they've been pretty good at calling the mkt. The core hedges expire at... login to read the rest
....darn you. Congrats on winning the contest. Had been meaning to write this up myself, but wasn't sure I could present it well enough to a sophisticated crowd such as this. (And been too busy/lazy... login to read the rest
Pokey,
Thanks for the response. I don't mind boring investments, either, but I hate stupidity! Sometimes too much cash can cause problems with managements that don't know how to deploy all that cash wisely.
As to ratings,... login to read the rest
David,
I think the plan is to be kind of boring, which I would prefer. I know they have learned some lessons over the last two years. I imagine a one-off acqusition here or... login to read the rest
Pokey,
Regarding FCF and the future, what happens once they pay down the debt and distribute a dividend?
Do they have any plans to regain market share or expand?
It's great that they can generate all that... login to read the rest
Didn't mean it that way at all. Great questions. I like the feedback, critical or not. And I even forgot to put Monitor in the risk section, so I do appreciate it.
thanks for your responses. my questions were not meant to be critical, just trying to confirm my valuations. it's definitely cheap and very interesting.
great idea and thanks for posting it...
You are correct. My numbers are a bit off. Here's my analysis -- 2002 (and 2001 is essentially the same for trough discussion purposes) Operating income was 96mm ps. + 108mm ps. in... login to read the rest
The Series A/CPO/ADS relationship just became more complicated as the CPO Trust Agreement was recently amended. However, without getting into too much detail, let me see if I can provide the important facts. ... login to read the rest
-- my EBITDA multiples EXCLUDE the approximately $3mm of recurring "other Expenses". If this is included above EBIT, I get to multiples of about 8.8x EV/2002 EBITDA
Thanks in advance for your responses
Pokey -
I have problems tying to your multiples.
I can get to $20mm of EBITDA, but then when you add up "other Expenses" below the EBIT line, many of which are VERY RECURRING in nature (about... login to read the rest
Pokey -
I have problems tying to your multiples.
I can get to $20mm of EBITDA, but then when you add up "other Expenses" below the EBIT line, many of which are VERY RECURRING in nature (about... login to read the rest
-- can you explain the Series A / CPO / ADS relationship? Who is entitled to vote? How much of the economic interest and voting interest is controlled by the Aguirre family?
-- what happens... login to read the rest
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