General Dynamics GD
July 17, 2022 - 6:36am EST by
member
| 2022 | 2023 | ||||||
| Price: | 212.77 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 280 | P/E | 18 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 59,000 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 0 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 0 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
Description
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| 63 | |
to everyone who did not exit this name when I did. I am your contrary indicator. | |
| 62 | |
Thanks for thoughts. In addition to the tailwinds mentioned above, IES mgmt told me they are already expanding capacity at its generator enclosures plants (Infra Solutions segment) right after adding a new facility. I think... login to read the rest | |
| 61 | |
This exit doesn't really mean much re: the investment case. It's more that I have a very concentrated book and thus often have to sell something I still like to make room when new ideas... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
Thanks. Also just spent a good while doing some sleuthing and sounds like MSFT is also likely a customer. No idea how large, though. | |
| 57 | |
Apple and Google both clients | |
| 56 | |
Mpk391 -
Thought I would comment here as opposed to my thread since this one is yours and am asking a direction question to you - have you been able to weasel out of management any... login to read the rest | |
| 55 | |
I don't know exactly the nature of the work, sorry. I do think they're doing everything they can to keep the customer happy. Also, the communication biz has been approached by more than one customer... login to read the rest | |
| 54 | |
As always, appreciate the color.
Leverage never has been a concern here. I'm not sure why people would be concerned that they have $50 million of net debt. I mean..take the residential business: it's doing fine... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
On residential, yes that's how I did it. In FY21, gross margins aside from recent deals (KEP, Bayonet, Edmonson) were 20.6% and acquisitions were 16.2% ... but, those acquisitions are actually higher EBITDA margin. There's... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
Quick update - nvm, you don't actually need to respond to this. Was sort of stream of conciousness, and think I can corroborate the figs myself. | |
| 48 | |
Specifically regarding the "Other" column:
With residential, if you assume 20.1% gross margins (what they had in last year's quarter, which should more or less be representative of normal), the rough difference between what was reported this quarter... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
thanks all for the detailed analysis here
I would be surprised if the buybacks do not ramp up substantially.
not to disagree, but i would be surprised - after all, they are in a net debt position,... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Hey, sorry for the delay. I'll speak to mgmt soon but haven't yet.
This was the quarter from Hell. I expected crappy margins due to Covid/supply-chain/commodity prices but certaintly didn't expect the projects gone awry at Communications... login to read the rest | |
| 45 | |
mpk391 - you know the story well; curious if you have any incremental thoughts? | |
| 44 | |
I agree with that argument and like to think you are being quite conservative in the analysis. I would also like to think company buys back stock at these levels. | |
| 43 | |
Agree that today's numbers were not good, but I would note that other competitors (example: Emcor's electrical services segment) saw similar cost headwinds. Revenues in their segment increased 13% year over year, but operating income... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
Sort of shocking topline growth but a nasty foot-fault on C&I, plus cost inflation headwinds. Quick take is that today is a buying oppy if you have faith Gendell can clean up C&I, but a bit | |
| 41 | |
Yep, agree. FWIW, this recently became one of my larger positions, so good luck to us both! Seems super asymmetric. | |
| 40 | |
Yes, that sounds reasonable, and that's basically why I increased my position by 50% last week. I'd just add that earnings should be underpinned by the secular growth in datacenters and e-commerce warehouses (for customers... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
Why do you think we're being provided this opp today? Obvi housing related but what else?
This seems crazy cheap to me given the quality of mgmt, historical record of creating a ton of value in... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Hi- first off, I previously forgot to mention that within Infrastructure, I'd say the generator enclosure businesses are the only part I'd really say is tied to customer growth capex. Think most of the rest... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
Thanks for the reply.
Do you have any concern with respect to batteries eventually replacing generator use? Recently read an article that describes Google is trying out lithium batteries as a replacement for generators at one... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
thanks for the questions. I think for communications and generator enclosures, the advantages come in terms of know-how and track record. My understanding is that wiring up a data center is orders-of-magnitude more complex than... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
Mpk,
Thanks for all of the updates on this one. Been looking at this for the past few days. I guess just a few rudimentary questions:
What do you think the actual competitive advantage is on the communications... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
agree with both of you. clearly, the Omicron wave hit this company hard with lots of employees in Comm and Infra out sick. And supply chain disruptions hit them too - also Covid related. Like... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
while we wait, at $46 the cap is near 1b while NI+DA is 93m but the TTM CFFO is -7m right now with CapEx expanding which is also leading to debt on the BS which... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
Thanks, very helpful. Seems like folks don't like the margin pressure in the Q4 numbers (small volume per usual, admittedly)...think this is a buying oppy assuming some combination of supply chain alleviation + pricing gets | |
| 31 | |
sorry, forgot to add the ebitda numbers:
All those bottom row numbers are acquisitions except for FY22 (the only growth capex).
If homebuilding grows in FY22, my estimate is probably too low. And of course Infrastructure will... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Rialto- thanks for the question. My outlook keeps getting better despite the sideways trading over the past year.
First off, C&I is back in the black. Recall that the prior CEO got the boot due to... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
SpocksBrain- a thousand pardons for not noticing your question from June. Terminating the rights plan was about improving their corp governance image. They had received a lot of pushback from investors about this apparently. Note... login to read the rest | |