Gartner Group IT
July 02, 2007 - 4:44pm EST by
dionis589
2007 2008
Price: 24.60 EPS
Shares Out. (in M): 0 P/E
Market Cap (in $M): 2,560 P/FCF
Net Debt (in $M): 0 EBIT 0 0
TEV (in $M): 0 TEV/EBIT

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Description

 
Overview - Long. The street is still missing the revenue acceleration on the research business and the impact of the salesforce growth. The Gartner business model is very good with high customer retention, positive working capital (i.e. a source of cash), minimal capex, strong FCF, and a lot of leverage with high fixed cost base (incremental margins are >80% in research). Gene Hall, their CEO, came from ADP in 2004 and is about half-way through the turnaround in what is a great business running under poor prior management. EBITDA margins (ex ESO) stand in the mid-teens though historically they were in the mid-high 20% range. Structurally, there is nothing preventing from returning to those levels according to management. Quality of their research product is improving and 20% salesforce growth is in the early stages of being recognized in the reported contract research growth numbers. As evidence, last quarter's 19% contract growth truly caught the street offguard. I beleive this trend is sustainable in the intermediate term which should allow for revenue growth to converge to the 20% levels from the 9% research revenue growth in 2006.

Current Valuation - is not 'cheap' on consensus, but numbers are likely to go up and on earnings power basis we should be looking at >$175M in FCF in the 08/09 timeframe and close to $2/share of FCF in 09. This number could be higher if capex comes down to maintenance type levels (roughly 10M lower than current run-rate) and/or if the co. gets margin expansion faster than expected.  

Risk/Reward -  Using what could be argued as conservative multiples of around 20-22x (EPS should be growing at 25%+ over next few years), can point to value in the mid-high $30s and approaching $40+ off of 2009 which will be in sight in 12mos. Downside of around $3-4/share based off of a low 20x multiple on consensus numbers on 08.  On earnings power of ~$1.85/share (25% EBITDA margins) and 22x multiple (lower than forward year avg of 24-27x) also gets you to the $40 range.

Earnings Power
Cash EPS
GAAP EPS Inc Options FCF
Metric $1.88 $1.89 $1.86
18.0x $33.85 $34.02 $33.45
19.0x 35.74 35.91 35.31
20.0x 37.62 37.80 37.17
21.0x 39.50 39.69 39.03
22.0x 41.38 41.58 40.89
23.0x 43.26 43.48 42.74
24.0x 45.14 45.37 44.60
25.0x 47.02 47.26 46.46
18.0x 38% 38% 36%
19.0x 45% 46% 44%
20.0x 53% 54% 51%
21.0x 61% 62% 59%
22.0x 68% 69% 66%
23.0x 76% 77% 74%
24.0x 84% 85% 82%
25.0x 91% 92% 89%
 
Salient Points to the IT Story:

Great Business Model - Co drives revenue from research, consulting, and events/symposiums. Research is the most important driver as it comprises over 60% of EBIT. Incremental margins in this business are 80%+ (fixed base of researchers with low variable costs) and mgmt believes they can double the revenue base in Research while keeping cost base relatively flat. Revenues are based on subscriptions and thus has high recurring revenues. For 70% of their business (research and events), WC is a source of cash since they receive fees/billings upfront. Product is pretty sticky with client retention tracking around 80% for at least the past four years. In the mid-late 90s, this metric was higher in the 85-90% range and mgmt does believe they can drive retention back to those levels as more new products are rolled out. Wallet retention has been tracking around 90% which mgmt believes is sustainable (last qtr it was 104%). Capex is low at under 2% of revs and coupled with positive WC, FCF is typically greater than NI. From a market standpoint, IT is the leader in the space from a revenue perspective but still has room for substantial penetration (studies suggest market only 10% penetrated right now).

Historical Margins & Expansion Story - In the mid-90s, EBITDA margins on the research side used to run in the low-mid 20% range. In 2006, EBITDA margins were 14.7%. IT's three-year goal (announced this past spring) is to get EBITDA margins in the 19-22% range. This ramp although meaningful (especially to EPS growth given high leverage) could still be conservative based on historical peak margins of the business. Mgmt admits there is nothing preventing them from attaining margins in the mid-20% range as in the past. 

Re-acceleration of Top-line growth - At this point, the average price per user for web access to the core research product is $4,000 and the average price per user for research and analyst access is about $7,000. The list prices for those two services are $10,000 and $20,000, respectively, but heavy discounting historically has reduced the company’s average revenue per seat. The company is currently working to evolve the pricing model , so the average price per user is expected to migrate steadily upward over time. The most expensive product, the Executive Program, is priced at $80,000 per year. There are new role-based products being introduced that carry a price of $12,000-$22,000. The average research spend for a client organization is approximately $62,000.

The co. launched a new pricing initiative last year. Owing to the subscription nature of Gartner sales, only a small fraction of customers are on the new pricing at this stage, and it will likely take a few years to cycle through all existing customer relationships. Approximately 55% of customers are on one-year contracts, with the remaining 45% on two- to three-year contracts. With services now offered at higher prices, many legacy relationships (where clients enjoyed very low prices) will need to be migrated over a number years. The company hopes to increase pricing at legacy relationships by 5% per year until the pricing matches that of new clients. Under the new model, new clients are paying an average of 50% more per seat. The average price per seat for the basic research product is expected to migrate from $4,000 for basic web access and $7,000 for web access with analyst access to $15,000-$18,000 over time. Historically, Gartner had charged $12,000 per seat for the basic research product with analyst access and often offered enterprise agreements that amounted to heavy discounting, yielding an average price of $7,000. Under the new pricing paradigm, Gartner is no longer offering enterprise agreements and has raised the list price of that product to $20,000. So far according to the company pushback on pricing has been limited. Many times the customer is not even aware of what they are paying (remember avg IT clients have budgets greater than $2-3M). Many CEOs have commented that previous IT pricing was the most underpriced product out of their entire budget spend.
 
Significant ROI in Growing the SalesForce - The investment in sales force makes a ton of sense. Rough numbers but the avg. salesperson generates about $900K in contract value. This comes on at 70% incremental margins so call it $630K in contribution. The avg salesperson gets paid $120K. So looking at it from a ROIC perspective - we should be hiring sales people all day long. G&A stays flat and the S grows during this sales/investment phase but should start to level out over time. According to the co., right now they have enough research analysts (600) to easily double the business without having to add more capacity. As such, the business model economically has high returns.

Buybacks likely to be Use of Cash - The co. has about $90M in cash and $400M in debt. In Q1 they bought back $23M of stock and still have $180M left in thier authorization. Guidance assumes sharecount shrinks some more and so they continue to exhibit propensity to buyback stock. They will generate 150M of cash flow this year alone. The co. continues to feel comfortable with their leverage.

Management - Underlying the fundamental story of Gartner is the drive of a new management team to turn around the business following a rough patch that began in 2000. Gene Hall joined the management team as CEO in 2004; he was previously a senior executive at ADP and primary reason for joining was oppty to increase price and drive more sales driven strategy which he believed was under-appreciated. In its tenure thus far, he has completed an acquisition of a key competitor, Meta Group, cleaned up the company’s capital structure (was dual class stock), initiated a price increase, introduced a new sales model (which includes a dramatic ramp-up in the number of sales heads), and introduced new products (Gartner for IT leaders).

Some Risks:

Large Holders: SilverLake & ValueAct - between the two groups, they hold 33% of the stock. SilverLake did a secondary in May 2006 with most of the stock sold to the public around $14.75/share. They still own 13% of the co. Gartner bought 1M shares back in the offering and CEO bought 200K personally. VA also just bought 2M shares from SilverLake at $15.75/share in Fall 06 so there is good support from large holders at this level. In speaking to IR, the co. could buy more stock back from SilverLake going forward. If Silverlake decides to lighten up some more, I would expect the company to participate again in a transaction to buyback some of the shares.

Leveraged to IT Discretionary Spending - in any economic turn or dip in IT spending, gartner would be exposed. That said, the spend on gartner's products is relatively small compared to other components of IT budget spending. Their average client spends $64K per year vs. IT budgets on avg. of a few MM/year.

Catalyst

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