GROCERY OUTLET HLDNG CORP GO

May 30, 2024 - 11:45pm EST by

member

						2024	2025
Price:		21.45		EPS		0.91	1.24
Shares Out. (in M):		102		P/E		23.7	17.2
Market Cap (in $M):		2,182		P/FCF		0	0
Net Debt (in $M):		224		EBIT		152	194
TEV (in $M):		2,406		TEV/EBIT		15.9	12.4

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9	member 12/08/23 11:34AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Trading dynamics 8
Just so we're on the same page...below is from 3Q23 deck. YTD recurring SBC is $16mm compared to only $7mm last year. FY23 recurring SBC will likely be > $20mm, so that has more than... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 12/07/23 5:46PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Trading dynamics 7
re SBC- I have 18mln of recurring TTM and 15mln tied to the acquisitions and the CEO transition. I don't consider those recurring. re valuation, as I mentioned, I am using forward numbers given the higher 1 view available tags
7	member 12/07/23 3:42PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Trading dynamics 6
I know WTI hurt EBITDA margin, but we shall see the trend from here. I'm referring to SBC (excluding acquisitions and CEO transition). Here's the trend: $31mm 3Q23 runrate, $19mm LTM, $10mm FY22, $2mm FY21. Re: Valuation...$1.20b... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 12/07/23 3:11PM Re: Re: Re: Trading dynamics 5
Thanks for the thoughts. I agree with you on 2 and 3. New CEO has impressive credentials but has never been a CEO and I don't love the cofounders stepping down. Re EBITDA margin, that is... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 12/07/23 1:52PM Re: Re: Trading dynamics 4
I struggle liking PX here b/c: 1) not cheap at 19x FCF (maybe 17.5x removing NWC & 1x items), 2) co-founders no longer CEOs, 3) new CEO has never been a CEO, 4) should have... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
4	member 11/27/23 7:26AM Re: Trading dynamics 3
I think its a combination of dual class, small cap/liquidity, fears about private equity, interest rates.... that would be my guess. view available tags
2	member 8/03/23 4:15PM Re: NOL source and mgmt 1
PX was initially an NOL shell. They have since added to the tax assets by stepping up the basis of acquired companies and using the related amortization. PX is run by Robert Alpert and Clark Webb.... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 8/03/23 2:24PM NOL source and mgmt
Interesting idea.. as the write up was quite short I am wondering if you could elaborate a bit more on the following topics: where does the NOL come from management - how long they been there, incentivised, view available tags

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