GAIN CAPITAL HOLDINGS INC GCAP
May 23, 2011 - 11:13am EST by
member
| 2011 | 2012 | ||||||
| Price: | 6.04 | EPS | $1.00 | $0.77 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 35 | P/E | 6.0x | 8.0x | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 208 | P/FCF | 6.0x | 8.0x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -50 | EBIT | 57 | 47 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 158 | TEV/EBIT | 3.0x | 3.0x | |||
Description
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| 53 | |
Thanks for your updates. We can't find any reason why this is trading anywhere near where it trades today - I guess I shouldn't be shocked - seem to have a whole mess of... login to read the rest | |
| 52 | |
It is also worth nothing that each EIS unit consists of $C2.50 of debt, so at this price, the market is essentially assuming zero equity value for the company.
It was rumored that EPCOR... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
While there are arguably many mispriced securities in this market, we think PRI at C$3 is just insane. The company continues to pay a 80c dividend which we think is secure, representing a yield... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
Grant,
I think the effective cancellation of the management contract and public sales process is clearly what we have been hoping for. Recent deals for similar assets have been done at double digit EBITDA multiples... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
curious as to your thoughts on the "sale process" as announced. any different thoughts from this spring? | |
| 47 | |
Not a whole lot more to add beyond the previous posts. Hiring of financial advisor makes sense in light of the possible EPCOR bid, and if not, evaluation of other strategic options. The... login to read the rest | |
| 45 | |
I should note that the outcome in which EPCOR sells it PRI stake rather than making a bid for the company may indeed be a better outcome. This would allow PRI to seek out... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
On EPCOR's last conference call I believe they spoke to the fact that they would be evaluating the future of the PRI assets once HC was finalized.
As far as our specific beliefs that they... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
Re: Harbor Coal, definitely long-awaited good news. Contract should be around 20c/unit in cash flow, so regardless of whether the company chooses to raise the dividend or keep extra cash on the balance sheet,... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Mav or madmax,
Any thoughts on the impact of this agreement from a CF perspective? Do you think this is a $.20 boost, or that there is potentially more upside from the agreement?
Thanks again. ... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
I do not have much to add to Mav's comments. We were encouraged by the press release and happy to see that the company is willing to use its balance sheet to preserve distributions,... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
We continue to follow this situation closely. A couple comments:
• Management continues to believe strongly that a new Harbor Coal contract will be negotiated and executed shortly. This makes sense for both parties (PRI and... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
Anyone following here have any updated thoughts on the likelihood of a new contract with Mittal being signed before the February deadline? They've still got some time, but clock to interest rate hike is | |
| 34 | |
Thanks for your remarks, rii. I thought it was rather bold of management to put that 11/30 date out there, but I'm very happy they delivered. You're right - the next (and hopefully... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
Nice call on re-iterating a buy at the $4 level. With dividend re-instated, effective dividend yield is about 16%. If they sign the harbor coal contract, which seems like it's caught up in... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Pat,
We have had the same concerns and have looked into these issues extensively. To summarize, once the distributions are reinstituted, the securities will have a yield of somewhere between 20-25% depending on the resolution... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
i don't think you're wrong, and that is certainly one way this could play out. if the banks play hardball, the company can turn around and refinance the bank debt (which is nowhere near... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
can you comment further on why you think it is in the banks' interest to give the waiver? Why wouldnt they simply enforce the covenenat (thereby blocking distributions) and continue to get their debt... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
I'm sorry I didn't respond to your earlier post as I've been off the site for a little while. I do not think that today's press release is at all inconsistent with management's earlier... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
any updated thoughts in light of today's press release? | |
| 23 | |
Just a quick comment on the recent news, which Mav did a very nice job of summarizing. As Mav said, this is purely a technical issue, not a cash flow issue. The company... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
I suppose it would make the most sense for the hosts to buy the assets from PERC, but of course you need a willing seller and a reasonable price. | |
| 21 | |
Max,
Would it stand to reason that if the hosts were to bring generation in-house that they would likely buy the PERC assets to do so since they are already there?
If so, how would this work | |
| 20 | |
I have been following this situation for some time and largely agree with madmax’s assessment. After speaking with the CEO and CFO today, I do believe that the temporary deferral of payments today is... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
I guess from our perspective the cost per MW and the EBITDA splits are what they are. Using historical gross PP&E likely understates the true cost given inflation over the ensuing years. The... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Sorry about that - I didn't realize there was a message waiting there. Will take a look and respond, though I no longer really follow the company. | |
| 16 | |
Thanks for the reply and the article, which is interesting.
Your reply puts a lot of weight on the cost / MW, and the EBITDA split between the projects. How confident are you in these?
Also,... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
In theory, Mittal would have four choices when these contracts expire: (1) renew the PERC contract, (2) rebuild the projects and operate them itself, (3) hire someone else to replace PERC, or (4) use the... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
I confirmed this in my notes that I didn't have access to before. Because management is employed by Ventures, they are incentivized on performance for all of the Ventures assets, not just PERC. | |
| 12 | |
1. The $3.7mn you reference (p11) is further broken out on p12, which shows the split between D&A and interest (attributable to HC's share in PCI). D&A is $1.845mn per this chart, which ties... login to read the rest | |