2013 | 2014 | ||||||
Price: | 14.32 | EPS | -$0.22 | $1.24 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 258 | P/E | NA | 11.6x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 3,693 | P/FCF | 40.7x | 10.3x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 5,787 | EBIT | 545 | 704 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 9,481 | TEV/EBIT | 17.4x | 13.5x |
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Investment Summary
Buy Stock at $14.32 with a $20 target. FSL’s free cash flow generation should increase dramatically over the next few quarters due to a revenue tailwind in their core sectors, gross margin expansion through the successful implementation of its operating restructuring and an extremely compelling refinancing/deleveraging opportunity. At under 10x 2014 FCF, FSL is trading at a dramatic and undeserved discount to its peers
Company Description
FSL is a global leader in embedded processing solutions. Embedded processor products include microcontrollers (MCUs), single-and multi-core microprocessors (MPUs), digital signal controllers (DSCs), applications processors and digital signal processors (DSPs). These programmable devices, along with software, provide the core functionality of electronic systems, adding essential control and intelligence, enhancing performance and optimizing power usage while lowering system costs.
FSL offers complementary semiconductor products, including radio frequency (RF), power management, analog, mixed-signal devices and sensors. FSL combines its embedded processors, complementary semiconductor devices and software to offer highly integrated solutions that are increasingly sought by its customers to simplify their development efforts and shorten their time to market.
FSL’s products are used in some of the fastest growing applications within the industrial, networking, automotive and consumer markets. These applications include automotive safety, vehicle efficiency, next generation wireless infrastructure, cloud computing and data centers, smart energy, portable medical devices, consumer appliances and smart devices.
Capital Structure & Relevant Financial Metrics
Capital Structure |
Coupon |
Maturity |
Amount |
LTM Mult |
|
$425mm Revolver (L+375) |
3.986% |
7/1/2016 |
0 |
|
|
Term Loan B3 (L+325; 100 Floor) |
4.250% |
12/1/2016 |
348 |
|
|
Senior Secured Notes |
10.125% |
3/15/2018 |
0 |
|
|
Senior Secured Notes |
9.250% |
4/15/2018 |
0 |
|
|
Term Loan B4 (L+375; 125 Floor) |
5.000% |
3/1/2020 |
2,354 |
|
|
Term Loan B5 (L+375; 125 Floor) |
5.000% |
3/1/2020 |
792 |
|
|
Senior Secured Notes |
5.000% |
5/15/2021 |
500 |
|
|
Senior Secured Notes |
6.000% |
1/15/2022 |
960 |
|
|
Foreign Sub Loan |
8.000% |
12/15/2014 |
0 |
|
|
Total Secured Debt |
$4,954 |
6.3x |
|||
|
|
||||
Senior Unsecured FRN's (L+375) due 12/15/2014 |
3.986% |
12/15/2014 |
57 |
|
|
8.05% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2020 |
8.050% |
2/1/2020 |
739 |
|
|
10.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2020 |
10.750% |
8/1/2020 |
473 |
|
|
Total Senior Debt |
$6,223 |
7.9x |
|||
|
|
||||
10.125% Senior Sub Note due 12/15/2016 |
10.125% |
12/15/2016 |
264 |
|
|
Total Debt |
$6,487 |
8.2x |
|||
Cash & Investments |
700 |
|
|||
Net Debt |
$5,787 |
7.3x |
|||
|
Shares |
Price |
|
||
Equity Cap Class A |
257.860 |
$14.32 |
$3,693 |
|
|
Total Equity Value |
$3,693 |
|
|||
|
|
||||
Enterprise Value |
|
|
$9,480 |
12.0x |
|
|
|
2012 |
LTM |
E. 2013 |
E. 2014 |
E. 2015 |
Revenues |
$3,945.0 |
$4,061.0 |
$4,154.0 |
$4,361.7 |
$4,579.8 |
Gross Margin |
41.6% |
41.5% |
42.6% |
45.0% |
48.7% |
EBITDA Margin |
19.4% |
19.5% |
19.5% |
22.0% |
25.8% |
Adj. EBITDA |
$766.0 |
$790.0 |
$811.8 |
$961.7 |
$1,182.0 |
CAPEX |
$196.0 |
$208.0 |
$211.0 |
$218.1 |
$229.0 |
Taxes |
$2.0 |
($6.0) |
$36.0 |
$16.8 |
$25.2 |
Interest Expense |
$519.0 |
$500.0 |
$474.0 |
$367.3 |
$346.3 |
FCF |
$49.0 |
$88.0 |
$90.8 |
$359.5 |
$581.5 |
Earnings |
($102.0) |
($125.0) |
($56.2) |
$319.6 |
$479.5 |
EV/EBITDA |
12.4x |
12.0x |
11.7x |
9.9x |
8.0x |
P/E |
(36.2x) |
(29.5x) |
(65.7x) |
11.6x |
7.7x |
Price / FCF |
75.4x |
42.0x |
40.7x |
10.3x |
6.4x |
Recent History & Current Situation
- The purchase was ill-timed, 2006, was a peak year for revenues and the LBO saddled FSL with a massive debt load
- 45% of FSL revenues are to the Auto Sector, which experienced a sharp decline in the years following the LBO
- Refocused on growth areas and away from the more commoditized
- Moved to a more “asset lite” model, where over 30% of front end and back end manufacturing are outsourced
- Improved margins
- Stabilized market share
Investment Thesis
- FSL supplies its products to 4 major high-growth end markets: Automotive, Industrial, Networking & Consumer
- Automotive, (40% of revenues) is in a cyclical upswing in the US and is and more importantly, is in a secular upswing around the world with units expected to increase by 28% by 2017. Additionally, the content per vehicle has increased dramatically, and is expected to increase by another 27% through 2018 mostly due to the government regulation of safety and emissions and the growth in telematics
- Networking market (25% of revenues) sees growth from the increased focus on cloud computing & data center and the upgrades to wired and wireless infrastructure to take advantage of the higher speeds and the prolific growth of video on the internet
- Industrial (15% of revenues), also has high growth potential due to focus on smart energy, portable medical devices and the need for smarter control systems and connectivity for appliances
- Both Automotive and Industrial end-markets (over 50% of Revenues) have very long product cycles (5-7 years) which provides a solid recurring revenues and a stable base for FSL
- 2012 gross margins were 41.6%, well below the industry average of 47%
- Management has target of achieving 53-55% gross margins
- They feel that 50% gross margins is attainable in the near future just from
- Every 1% increase in GM’s results in a 5% increase in EBITDA
- over $1.9 billion of high coupon debt becomes callable by April 2014
- Recently refinanced $1.38 billion of 9.25% secured debt and $221 million of 10.125% secured for new debt averaging 5.66% resulting in an interest savings (including call premiums) of $54 million
- Additionally, in the 1q of 2014, it is expected that FSL will call and pay-off its $264 million 10.125% subordinate debt, resulting in an additional $27 million of interest savings
Valuation
- Most of the increases in cash flow are based on cost cuts and refinancing’s, which are primarily in the FSL’s control are therefore easily achievable
- last year, the company finally starting producing some free cash flow and last quarter (3Q 2013) resulted in their first positive earnings since the LBO
- As a result, in the coming quarters, FCF & P/E muiltiples will start to come into focus
- On an EBITDA basis, FSL trades at a premium to its comps
- However, when looking at Net Income and Free cash flow, which should always be the primary drivers of equity valuation, FSL trades at a steep discount to comps
- Comp set includes: Texas Instruments, Intel, ST Microelectronics, Analog Devices, Maxim, Microchip, Infineon, & Cypress
Free Cash flow Multiple |
||||||||
10.0x |
11.0x |
12.0x |
13.0x |
14.0x |
15.0x |
|||
2014 FCF |
$359 |
$13.94 |
$15.34 |
$16.73 |
$18.12 |
$19.52 |
$20.91 |
Comp Median: 15.1x |
2015 FCF |
$581 |
$22.55 |
$24.81 |
$27.06 |
$29.32 |
$31.57 |
$33.83 |
Comp Median: 13.2x |
Price / Earnings Multiple |
||||||||
11.0x |
12.0x |
13.0x |
14.0x |
15.0x |
16.0x |
|||
2014 NI |
$320 |
$13.63 |
$14.87 |
$16.11 |
$17.35 |
$18.59 |
$19.83 |
Comp Median: 16.2x |
2015 NI |
$479 |
$20.45 |
$22.31 |
$24.17 |
$26.03 |
$27.89 |
$29.75 |
Comp Median: 12.5x |
EV / EBITDA Multiple |
||||||||
8.0x |
9.0x |
10.0x |
11.0x |
12.0x |
13.0x |
|||
2013 EBITDA |
$812 |
$2.74 |
$5.89 |
$9.04 |
$12.19 |
$15.34 |
$18.48 |
Comp Median: 12.0x |
2014 EBITDA |
$962 |
$7.39 |
$11.12 |
$14.85 |
$18.58 |
$22.31 |
$26.04 |
Comp Median: 9.4x |
2015 EBITDA |
$1,182 |
$14.23 |
$18.81 |
$23.40 |
$27.98 |
$32.56 |
$37.15 |
Comp Median: 8.4x |
Why Does This Opportunity Exist?
- Investors fear their shares will remain an overhang on the stock
Risks – What Can Go Wrong? (Level of Impact – Small/Medium/Large; % Likelihood)
- While FSL for the most part has a large diverse customer base, it has one very large customer, Continental AG, which makes up over 10% of revenues
- customers in the automotive and industrial end-markets are generally very sticky since there are long product cycles and the overall cost of the semiconductors are very small relative to the item (probably not more than $100 of semiconductors and microcontrollers per average vehicle)
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