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20	member 12/23/24 6:25AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 19
With the stock down ~10% this morning (7% FCF yield) as the mkt digests the UK investigation, I'll point out a few things: 1) Stock is down 10% on the worst case being a loss of... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
19	member 12/20/24 5:00PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 18
Follows a familiar pattern: negative press (ironically some of the articles I'm seeing are referencing the blog post I cited in my last comment) followed by investigation by local authorities. The eventual outcome could range... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 12/20/24 2:42PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 17
Any thoughts on the UK inquiry? 1 view available tags
17	member 12/18/24 11:49AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 16
No I get it and appreciate it -- this is what makes a market. I'm really serious about wanting to see any compelling data that says this is a significant part of the unregulated revenue... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
16	member 12/18/24 11:45AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 15
agree to disagree. good luck! there is evidence out there if you dig hard enough. I am not short btw. 1 view available tags
15	member 12/18/24 11:43AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 14
So, no? I don't deny that people use their products illegally (via operators of dubious ethical and legal standards) and agree that management knows this too. But I'm sure that booze companies know that their products... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 12/18/24 11:37AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 13
If you spend enough time with the company and ask the right questions, they won't lie about it. Ask them why they block Australian IP addresses but not other countries that have laws on the... login to read the rest -2 view available tags
13	member 12/18/24 11:30AM Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 11
Bigvic -- Do you have any data to support these claims? Would love to see it. Honestly. 1 view available tags
12	member 12/18/24 11:28AM Re: Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 11
"Much of the "unregulated" revenues are Curacao licensees that then sell the games into legally restricted markets. The company obfuscates this by calling these markets "unregulated." Unregulated to the company means a country says these... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
11	member 12/18/24 11:13AM Re: Re: Unregulated Markets 8
Have owned this in the past and not involved even at these prices. If you are intellectually honest, the company's business model is merely "plausible deniability as a service." EVO is effectively the casino operator... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
10	member 12/17/24 4:42PM Re: Re: Revenue model 9
Thanks xds - I totally agree and should have made this point myself! It also matches evo’s cost base better (more users -> more GGR -> more royalties -> more dealers). Although the transition to... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 12/17/24 4:35PM Re: Revenue model 4
I'd argue the question of 'why royalty not license' misconstrues the business - it's not standardized software, there's a performative element, as well as a number of UI nuances which impose costs on EVO studios... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
8	member 12/17/24 3:03PM Re: Unregulated Markets 6
Thanks Nautilus. I should have mentioned that the unregulated question had been addressed significantly in the other two recent posts. While the punchline has been and is that: "it's unregulated so it's... unregulated". We invest... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
7	member 12/17/24 2:25PM Re: Unregulated Markets 6
They are globally diversified. I’d be much more curious to hear what an actual actionable bear event could be that meaningfully impairs numbers 2 view available tags
6	member 12/17/24 2:00PM Unregulated Markets
Thanks Mississippi, appreciate the write up. You kind of write off the risk of unregulated markets (Asia), by saying "thats been the bear case for a while," without addressing its validity. IF unregulated is 40% of... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
5	member 12/17/24 9:46AM Re: Revenue model 4
I agree that the royalty model is interesting. My guess on why it arose in this market is that EVO's product was for an initially untested market and the pitch was "hey we'll give you... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
4	member 12/17/24 9:21AM Revenue model
I don't understand how a company like this gets away with taking a percent of the gross at all. If I was running a casino why wouldn't I tell EVO to pound sand on this,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 12/17/24 7:51AM Re: Re: Market Share Loss 2
A little confused by downvotes here. To be clear: this is a company that definitely has high RMS today (very high in live) and my base case is that this will go down (see bear... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 12/16/24 7:49AM Re: Market Share Loss 1
First, I don't see it really mattering whether it is number one in market share. In fact, since my base case revenue growth is below what I expect iGaming to grow at, I am assuming... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 12/16/24 7:21AM Market Share Loss
You list lower take rates as one of the bear cases and then you run sensitivity analysis around lower margins. But, these are symptoms of the bear case that you don’t address: market share loss to... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2024	2025
Price:	910.00	EPS	5.08	5.92
Shares Out. (in M):	212	P/E	15.5	13.3
Market Cap (in $M):	16,727	P/FCF	16.0	13.7
Net Debt (in $M):	-431	EBIT	1,290	1,505
TEV (in $M):	16,296	TEV/EBIT	12.6	10.8

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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