Description
Uranium has “5 good years every 50 years”, as the saying goes.
Maybe we’re finally in a good 5 years? A host of macro factors underscores the growing importance of uranium, potentially driving a uranium price spike to $150 per lb by 2026. Evidence of some hoarding on the supply side: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has 55+ m lbs, etc. Evidence of growing demand: China could build 80 reactors (generally, need 1.5 m lbs to pack each reactor) in 10 years; Japan only using 10 of its 30 reactors (with 16 reactors having applied for restarts), etc.
Uranium is also a highly contrarian idea. The entire uranium market cap is only $40 B. As Uranium price rises and oil price falls, uranium could see inflows away from the much-larger E&P universe.
After poking around the space and speaking with uranium investors we respect, our “top pick” in uranium is enCore Energy.
MANAGEMENT
As attributed to Mark Twain, “a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top [of it].” Nearly all mining projects are uninvestable due to the silly hole or the silly man on top. However, enCore arguably has the best U.S. uranium assets and the most elite and experienced team (e.g. a lot of white hair or no hair) in In-Situ Recovery (ISR) production outside of Kazak/Russia. Note that about 57% of global uranium is produced through ISR, due to the lower OPEX and significantly lower capex.
A multi-decade track record with one or more billion-dollar exits seems to be the best signal in mining investing. Chairman Bill Sheriff is trying to build a second blockbuster uranium company. His prior company, Energy Metals, went from a $1.7 M market cap in 2004 to a $1.8 B exit to Uranium One in 30 months. (Note that another uranium company, Paladin Energy, had a similar parabolic move from $0.01 to $10, and now sits at A$0.70).
Altogether, enCore has cobbled together 90 M lbs of M&I resource across 4 locations, which is impressive. enCore is targeting 50% of production on contracts and 50% on spot market. The company has assets in 4 locations, all in the U.S. These assets give the company several important shots on goal.
An investor could spend days running around and visiting these sites with a mining engineer and leave just as confused. Instead, we did a 1:1 with Chairman Bill Sheriff (a few quotes below) to try to frame the opportunity.
Texas
Rosita mine is targeting “3Q23” production. The goal is a run-rate of “400-500K lbs” produced by the end of 2023, with an eventual goal of “2 M lbs produced for 5-6 years”. The PEA is from 2019 (fairly recent), and three utilities are ready to sign contracts for 70% of production.
South Dakota
Dewey Burdock in South Dakota is “probably 2024” production and can ramp to 1 M lbs a year.
Wyoming
Gas Hills in Wyoming is “probably 2025” production and has a 2021 PEA (very recent) showing a 7-year mine life at 1 M lbs a year.
New Mexico
Company enjoys a “dominant position” in New Mexico and could start production in “maybe 2027” and eventually “reach 3 M lbs”.
CAPITALIZATION AND CASH
Most natural resource companies dilute shareholders into the…ground. By comparison, enCore has much less risk of dilution than the norm. The company has 370 m FDS and $27 M cash, making the company “fully funded” for its planned 2023 production in Texas.
(ROUGH) VALUATION
At $1.02, enCore is valued at $377 M. The stock is up 10x from early 2020, yet it still trades at a steep discount to the buyout ($1.8 B) of Bill’s first uranium company. With target production of 5+ M lbs at cash costs around $30 and Uranium price potentially doubling from $50 to $100, enCore is arguably trading at one times potential earnings in several years. A valuation of 5 times those potential earnings would put the company at a similar valuation to the prior buyout ($1.8 B). Could it happen again? Perhaps if we’re in those lucky five years.
BONUS: SPECIAL ASSET
The company owns 35% of Group11, which has a technology for golf recovery using ISR. The company is in early trials, with a pilot plant targeted in Wyoming in 2024. A Texas investor I highly respect is an investor directly in Group11, as well as enCore.
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.
Catalyst
NASDAQ listing (company planning to do a 1-for-3 consolidation to get to $3 stock)
Uranium price rises, maybe a lot
Acquired like Bill’s last company ($1.8 B) by a big player like Exxon or ConocoPhilips
Company gets into production and trades at a higher multiple of NAV
Group11 could be a future IPO