Along with a rather compelling valuation, we believe the core business has above average prospects. I suspect most everyone knows about EMC, so for the sake of brevity I will address several points that indicate that the core business is just fine. If you want more detail, there are about 20 analysts covering the name.
1. Revenues in the core storage segment are growing in the low double digits;
2. All major geographies are growing over 15%;
3. About 40% of business is international and should be helped by the weak dollar;
4. Software and services are above 50% of the revenue mix and growing;
5. Gross margins are expanding;
6. Operating margins are expanding;
7. EMC is taking share in the midrange market;
8. EMC is taking share in Asia;
9. The company is rolling out a significant number of new products in fourth quarter;
10. Management is consistently buying back a material amounts of stock;
FAIR VALUE
We believe EMC deserves a premium to both IBM and HPQ as it’s grow prospects and position in the storage market are considerably stronger. But if we simply put a 15x on the $0.63 core 2008 estimates, we’d have a reasonable $9.45 value for the stub. That’s about 67% above the current value.
Catalyst
1. Continued share repurchases;
2. Continued business momentum;
3. An eventual spin-off or liquidation of VMW;
4. Market recognizes the embedded value of VMW.