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AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
12
member
11/25/22 3:39PM
Re: Re: Re: Re: ESTC
11
So your 2025e revenue estimate is maybe 5% lower and your initial underwriting implied a 30% irr roughly 100% higher. What has changed? It sounds like your hesitance is tactical in nature - numbers may... login to read the rest
Still own some given how cheap it has gotten relative to out year numbers, but think their $2bn 2025 revenue target is a little aggressive. I tried to use the cohort breakdown in their investor... login to read the rest
Are you still following it? revenue estimates (for 2022) are up 50% since late 2020 when there even wasn't a bubble, and we are now sitting at a price that is 25% lower. The company... login to read the rest
angus, sorry about the delay here. I agree that the sell off is overdone. This is a high-quality asset that will be better monetized over time, and cloud revenues are growing 84%. I don't expect... login to read the rest
Thanks angus, not too many updated thoughts. We think the opportunity remains attractive despite it beginning to play out. They guided to 120-130% NRR next year, and management has tended to sandbag numbers histroically. This compares to... login to read the rest
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