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15	member 8/24/23 9:45PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 10
Fair points view available tags
14	member 8/24/23 6:49PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 13
Well, until we get to that ideal undersupplied condition later this decade, it looks like they're predicting an increasingly oversupplied market in '24 and '25. Below is a chart of US LEIs: 16 months in... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
13	member 8/24/23 5:34PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 12
Ya sorry cut off the key view available tags
12	member 8/24/23 3:35PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 11
is the line demand and the bars are supply? view available tags
11	member 8/24/23 2:43PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 10
I don't think anyone doubts the super long-term outlook for met coal isn't amazing. However, at spot met coal prices, I have Arch/Alpha at 25-30% FCF yields with now almost all the money going to... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 8/24/23 12:58PM Re: Re: Re: Re: China risk 9
To Beethoven's point, per capita consumption of steel is highest in the initial stages of urbanization but declines as economies transition to services. The U.S. for example has had flat steel demand for two decades... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
9	member 8/24/23 10:41AM Re: Re: Re: China risk 8
IMHO, GDP per capita is a poor metric with respect to this question. You can keep growing GDP through services, but the infrastructure game not only has physical limits but their ROI on their spend... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
8	member 8/24/23 10:03AM Re: Re: China risk 7
I've been hearing for the last decade or so about how China's growth is unsustainable, that they're in a real estate bubble that's bound to pop, that the economy is going to roll over. At... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 8/24/23 9:02AM Re: China risk 6
To add to the discussion, the other risk worth noting is that China's industry to date has largely been blast furnace given their recent industrialization and lack of available scrap reservoir to feed EAFs/mini-mills. However,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
6	member 8/24/23 8:42AM China risk
sck4000, Thanks for the great write-up. I'm new to looking at met coal miners and read your write-up with interest as Pabrai recently took a large position in AMR. The thing that's tripping me up from... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
5	member 8/18/23 11:38AM Re: Re: Any views on Mongolia 3
...I meant "...among all analysts I've checkd with is that supply will remain LOW enough that mid-term prices stay well ABOVE 200USD/metric ton..." :-) Sorry! view available tags
4	member 8/18/23 11:34AM Re: Comparison with other met coal producers 2
Sam, thanks for your question, not silly at all. I've looked at a couple of producers. AMR is a somewhat different story: Key value driver would be share buybacks as announced by mgm't (and also: their... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
3	member 8/18/23 11:25AM Re: Any views on Mongolia 1
Hi Veritas,Thanks for your question! Mongolia: - Cost: From the data that is know publicly, they sit in the midst of the cost curve (see screenshot, taken from the IEA, as of end 2020). However, notice that... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 8/17/23 5:01PM Comparison with other met coal producers
I have only recently started to look into the met coal space so apologies if this is a silly question and/or an awkward comparison, but how would you compare this with say an Alpha Metallurgical Resources 1 view available tags
1	member 8/15/23 8:35AM Any views on Mongolia
In the Analyst Call management referred to Mongolia. What's your take on Mongolia and where do they sit vs the Seaborne Met Coal Cost Curve (see Results slide deck). view available tags

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			2015	2016
Price:	19.65	EPS	0.90	1.22
Shares Out. (in M):	42	P/E	21	16
Market Cap (in $M):	823	P/FCF	21	16
Net Debt (in $M):	-70	EBIT	120	150
TEV (in $M):	755	TEV/EBIT	6.3	5

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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