Dogus Otomotiv DOAS:TI
August 28, 2021 - 2:52pm EST by
member
| 2021 | 2022 | ||||||
| Price: | 27.10 | EPS | 6.15 | 7.17 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 220 | P/E | 4.5 | 3.6 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 714 | P/FCF | 8.8 | 5.1 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 189 | EBIT | 1,742 | 1,960 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 832 | TEV/EBIT | 4.0 | 3.3 | |||
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| 30 | |
Appreciate the thoughts. | |
| 29 | |
Can't give you a definitive answer, but some thoughts:
1) A lot of companies Q3 margins are wonky - demand was high, inventories low, costs cut aggressively - ODP is not alone in retail
2) They can... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
How is this company making 10%+ EBIT marigns in a dying B&M retail business? I just don't get it. | |
| 26 | |
I just did some more digging and realized I was incorrect in my last post which only looked at 2019 - negative organic growth in B2B has been underway for years (2016: -5.4%; 2017: -5.4%; ... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
I was just looking back and over the last four years their employee base shrank by 1/3 (from 61k in Jan 2016 to 40k today and that includes CompuCom acquisitions so organic decline worse). So... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
jso - good questions and tough to say for sure. We have a call in to the company. Their responses aren't typically helpful, but will update if anything comes of it.
I'm not sure that the charge... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Company just announced they are laying off 1/3 of its work force across both B2B and retail (13k out of 40k employees) and taking a $550mm charge (~50% of market cap) to shrink. Will take four years... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
we all know this, but little things like that mean a LOT - if they don't have a markdown system to clear goods in something as obvious as a calendar display, they don't have management... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
it was weird - i went into a store on Saturday and they still had the 2020 calendars in a prominent display near the front of the entrance selling at fully price. In May. I know | |
| 19 | |
I have no comfort in the near-term "stability" of the business - unemployment is 15%, SMBs are being impacted acutely, many businesses are freezing hiring and expansion plans and slashing advertising budgets. Tell me when COVID-19 is over... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
maybeman - how comfortable are you with stability of the current business? i was reading through their Q1 results and despite the bump from cleaning supplies they are still shrinking organically. They wouldn't discuss Q2... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
I think the reverse stock split is consistent with their attempt to rebrand the company from an office supplies retailer to "a leading provider of business services and supplies, products and technology solutions through an... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Hey guys, so did anyone catch that no one over the recent earnings call addressed the additional proposal in the proxy statement to add in a reverse stock split. Proposed at 5-10 to 1, liquidity... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
Regarding China production/supply chain: "Our direct imports from China – actually it's probably about 3% or so of our overall [indiscernible] (00:14:12). What's tougher to get – because [indiscernible] (00:14:16) what component in some other... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Any thoughts on the potential impact?
I can see many cross-currents here. Supply disruption from the Chinese production shut-down in Jan/Feb. Less retail traffic (though not exactly a browsing location in the first place) though potentially... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Big gyrations and history in front of us with the Fed yesterday.
Why do you think CompuCom is a zero?
To your previous post, I view acquisitions as recurring and therefore capex.
Do you have any info on my few questions? | |
| 12 | |
jstavh - agree with most of your thinking and assessment in this post and the previous one. Apologies for not replying sooner or in more detail...i'm sure you can understand.
Neither management nor the Board are incredibly... login to read the rest | |
| 11 | |
Thanks for your pushback, but here is why I disagree. Every business is a buy, hold, or sell at a certain price. In the mid to high $1/share, ODP is attractive. Even if you do... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
I'll be honest, I'm quite surprised by the level of interest/engagement in this idea.
The retail business is basically the most clear cut example of structural decline you can find in retail. These earnings cannot be... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
Thanks for the write-up. A few questions and another perspective on ODP’s Retail and CompuCom businesses as well as some valuation:
Will we ever hear the economics on partnerships with Alibaba, TGT’s Shipt, or the “others... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
Much higher - $300m FCF assume only 60% is B2B (same as operating profit allocation) = $180m is ~$3.30 per share at 10%.
It's overly conservative forsure, but:
1) there's a lot of adjustments in ODP's FCF;
2)... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
Separation likely if they can figure out the JV structure for retail.
1) When the FTC killed the Staples / Office Depot proposed merger it was due to competition concerns with the B2B business, not retail where... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
good questions and appreciate the rough numbers.
EBITDA is only ever relevant to the extent that it captures unlevered, pre-tax operating cash flows. In the case of Office Depot, I would agree that there are some... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
I glanced through the annual report and found the following:
Firstly, I do not think one should look at this business on an adjusted EBITDA multiple given that last year management excluded ~110m of "one-offs" from... login to read the rest | |
| 1 | |
Are you sure you have all the debt included? I see your comment about Timber Notes, but thought there was more debt? What about off-balance sheet liabilities? | |