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47	member 1/16/23 8:02PM Re: AMZN Buy with Prime 46
Good question. It's definitely one of, if not the most concerning developments for the business. My two cents are that between AMZN eventually growing into their capacity and "wanting it back" for the core biz,... login to read the rest view available tags
46	member 1/10/23 9:19PM AMZN Buy with Prime
Hi virtualodin, what's your take on AMZN's aggressive push in 3rd party payment and fulfillment? view available tags
40	member 7/27/22 9:57AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Wow this is insanely unprofitable 39
...until they re-price the SBC. #"Peloton told employees that eligible team members will have their post-IPO options repriced to Peloton's closing price on July 1 of $9.13".Jul 6, 2022 5 view available tags
34	member 5/14/22 7:00PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Shopify Audiences 33
I don't have an informed answer for you but my gut would be pretty high, maybe 70-80%, similar to other more mature cloud-ified software categories. view available tags
33	member 5/13/22 8:53PM Re: Re: Re: Shopify Audiences 32
Thanks. How penetrated are these SaaS offerings for enterprises? Is there still a fair amount of internal IT software market share left for grab? view available tags
32	member 5/13/22 9:02AM Re: Re: Shopify Audiences 31
The upmarket competition is Demandware (owned by Salesforce), Magento (owned by Adobe) and BigCommerce. In that group, checks suggest Demandware is doing best with Magento a bit neglected inside Adobe and BigCommerce more focused on... login to read the rest view available tags
31	member 5/12/22 8:17PM Re: Shopify Audiences 30
This post overall is still a great analysis on the company that I rated highly although I was not fond of the price. Started buying SHOP in the last couple days. A couple questions: Who are the competition... login to read the rest view available tags
30	member 5/12/22 6:59PM Shopify Audiences
This has obviously been a disaster since posting but I expect you all either knew or could have guessed that given recent market gyrations. I hope that any readers stuck more strongly than I did... login to read the rest view available tags
29	member 3/03/22 7:54AM Couple questions and comments
I agree entirely that Shopify is a great company. I just believe that it is hard to say that Shopify will take over all of eCommerce. First of all, there is WordPress/WooCommerce that does something very... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
28	member 2/22/22 2:41PM Re: Re: Re: Why the crash? 27
This is Mr. Market 101. Sometimes he gets excited about certain sectors or the market in general, sometimes he gets depressed. Layer on top of that a huge impact from Covid that nobody fully understands,... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
23	member 2/21/22 10:14AM Re: Forward P/S 22
It did not. In the math I was outlining, I was envisaging ~$2.3b of subscription revenue, ~$7b of solutions revenue, ~$9.3b of total revenue and ~$3b of total EBIT (32% margin). view available tags
20	member 2/20/22 8:20PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Updated Thoughts? 19
mip - Completely agree. As the froth in the market increases, people move up the income statement from earnings to EBITDA to revenue multiples. As the air comes out, they move back down the income statement. virtualodin... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 2/20/22 2:30PM Re: Re: Re: Updated Thoughts? 17
There is stuff getting there. SPOT is on 2x NTM revs (targetting 10%+ LT EBIT margins), CVNA is on 1.4x (targetting low double digit EBIT margins), TWLO is on 6x revs (admittedly GM is low here... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
17	member 2/20/22 11:02AM Re: Re: Updated Thoughts? 12
I agree that it's really about sentiment. But, when I look bottom-up at high growth tech, I still don't see asymmetric risk-rewards. They went from very overvalued to, at best, the low end of fair... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
16	member 2/19/22 5:49PM Re: Re: Re: Updated Thoughts? 15
I still like it a lot. The stock has cratered while nothing particularly relevant has really changed at the company. The market is fitting narratives to the moves but if the news had taken place while... login to read the rest view available tags
14	member 2/17/22 3:15AM Logistics
Their OS for mechant is still amazing but one weakness is definitely their delivery/logistics: Plan on spending about 2B through 2024 for infrastutre while Amazon spent 60B in one year 2021 for capex(Yes I know I'm... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
13	member 2/16/22 8:57PM Re: Updated Thoughts? 11
Think it depends on if you think logistics is an important part of the business in 2030, and how successful you think they will be in that regard if so. The answer completely changes SHOP's view available tags
10	member 1/24/22 7:22PM Entry Px
This feels like a pretty great entry price for a remarkably good company. If you put all my speculation about 2030 TAM, share, ancillaries etc etc etc to one side and just take consensus 2023... login to read the rest -5 view available tags
9	member 1/24/22 7:17PM Re: SFN 8
Thanks for the question. I take it positively though I can see how the headline is read negatively. The bottom line is that SFN has clearly been a bit of a damp squip to-date, pretty... login to read the rest view available tags
8	member 1/20/22 8:41AM SFN
DB out with a note yesterday claiming SHOP is ending relationships with 3PL providers. Could interpret this as doubling down on integrated logistics, in which case the margin and cash figures are going to get nuked...but... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 11/20/21 3:28PM Re: Re: Questions on assumptions 6
Thanks. To be clear, I have a positive bias towards shop. I just want to better frame the long term potential. Some followups. 1) does the retail sales number include grocery? That seems a pretty large... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 11/19/21 12:32PM Re: Questions on assumptions 5
Glad you enjoyed it, appreciate the questions. Good to have someone check my work :) on 1) it does include dining - it doesn't include travel because I don't think the Census Bureau includes travel in retail... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 11/18/21 5:29AM Questions on assumptions
Great write up. A few questions on the assumptions: 1) does the retail sales number include travel and dining? If so, shouldn't that also be excluded? 2) the platforms like amzn, etsy and the top retailers... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
4	member 11/16/21 4:45AM Re: The James Anderson piece doesn't open... 2
Good spot, my bad. This link hopefully works. 1 view available tags
3	member 11/16/21 4:45AM Re: Great work 1
Appreciate the kind words. 2 view available tags
2	member 11/15/21 8:25PM The James Anderson piece doesn't open...
can you put the link in the messages? He's terrific. view available tags
1	member 11/15/21 7:53PM Great work
virtualodin - Just wanted to say that this type of work on a great business is extremely valuable. Thanks for posting the idea. There's no doubt this is a terrific business. As far as the... login to read the rest 16 view available tags

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			2022	2023
Price:	29.00	EPS	$0.50	$0.92
Shares Out. (in M):	295	P/E	58.0	31.5
Market Cap (in $M):	8,555	P/FCF	43.6	27.1
Net Debt (in $M):	-290	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	0	TEV/EBIT	44.2	26.1

Description

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Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

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