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AUTHOR
DATE
SUBJECT
20
member
2/19/19 4:55PM
Re: Q4
19
Tall Guy - many thanks for sharing your thoughts. what a difference a few months makes: in retrospect I was extremely fortunate to cover during the December market swoon.
I am gravitating back towards a bearish... login to read the rest
Stock is ripping on good execution from the 2H of 2018 and LT guidance. Leverage is still a concern and Adjusted EBITDA is an extremly poor measure of earnings quality. We are short again. Curious if... login to read the rest
while this still probably ends at zero, the mkt cap is down to $200mm, it is an expensive borrow, and it is now simply a stub upon a stub type trade so risk has gone... login to read the rest
just in case anyone thought the co kitchen sinked it last Q...they didn't. they just took most all key numbers down again (cash flow, operating margins, net loss, other than their bogus adjusted EBITDA metric)... login to read the rest
Re: Re: DBD may be funding secured at 11pct now...
15
thanks TallGuy. I just got around to going through this. pretty messy reading really. they said they have already generated $160mm of cost savings and think they can get another $200mm. The acquired Nixdorf biz... login to read the rest
Pricing a 650 million loan (~1.7x of LTM EBITDA) at L + 925 / 98 OID
All hopes appear to be pinned on ~200 million of cost savings (~4.4% of 2018E revenue) and a "strong" backlog.
Proforma... login to read the rest
Just FYI for those still interested: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3383573-breaking-bloomberg-says-j-p-morgan-shopping-diebold-rescue-loan
In other words the remaining equity value here will get stripped one way or another
hi rhubarb - my reading of the filings suggested that while the senior notes (the bonds) had a claim against the US assets alone, the bank loans (revolver + term loans) were guaranteed by a... login to read the rest
Re: Question for Puppyeh on the originally recommended trade
10
hi Katana - i had pondered this and we decided that in the event the trade worked, the co would snap file and/or announce a halt to processing of redemptions because of liquidity issues, thereby... login to read the rest
I was under the impression that the European assets were unencumbered (haven't verified, not involved). If so, wouldn't the holdout equity have plenty of coverage even in a BK? is this not the case?
Re: DBD hires Credit Suisse and Evercore - Seeking a Sale of the Company
8
yep i hear what you are saying and that is essentially what other participants seem to have accomplished.
this sales transaction is pretty interesting and clearly coming from a position of weakness; i think it is... login to read the rest
I hear you on the dynamics of the short at this point and time.
To be clear I was not recommending holding the minority but rather suggesting if you are short, why not buy the security... login to read the rest
while this has been a great trade as you describe it (short the common long the minority holdout 'prefs'), the issue from here is your upside in the pref is de minimis (you are essentially... login to read the rest
The question, and I think we are seeing this today, is why would someone not short the common and long the "puttable preferred" and subsquently put the preferred to further the financial stress on the... login to read the rest
yes - the common stock was an interesting short the day it fell 37% post earnings (as it became pretty clear this will need to be restructured at some point). unfortuantely borrow is very tight... login to read the rest
i know i know, record for fastest backflip in VIC history probably..but as they say, when the facts change...
Basically the co put out a presser saying that despite the tendered minorities going to $255mm (out... login to read the rest
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