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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
39	member 5/20/19 3:08PM Up 30%+ on reports of ~$9 bids
The Deal cited as source. view available tags
38	member 5/17/19 9:55AM Desperate Press Release Unlikely to Achieve Intended Results
-With the stock hitting new lows (closing below $5), DFRG hit send on a sloppy PR last evening announcing a reduction in force. I say sloppy b/c it was obviously rushed together in an attempt to get... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
37	member 5/13/19 1:56PM 1Q19 ER
-DFRG did not comment/provide additional detail on the sale process in 1Q earnings. -Fundamentals continue to disappoint, this time on margins, as they seem to be admitting Barteca margins were overstated. DFRG missed expectations on... login to read the rest view available tags
36	member 5/07/19 1:37AM 1Q19 10-Q
DFRG released their 10-Q AMC today, ahead of earnings release and CC tomorrow morning... -With the pending strategic review/sale process, underlying results might not mean much. -On a GAAP basis, they took another bath: EPS of -$0.55.... login to read the rest view available tags
35	member 3/22/19 1:57PM Re: Great Work 34
Thank you. Their beef mix is lower with addition of Barteca and subtraction of Sullivan’s, but still significant at ~23%. I’ve been agnostic on where this goes. Don’t really have a good guess on how... login to read the rest view available tags
34	member 3/21/19 5:12PM Great Work
My favorite short seller on VIC of the year award goes to FIRE_303 followed by A$AP roc924. More serious note, how big of an impact on EBITDA would beef/protein prices inflecting have on these guys this view available tags
33	member 3/21/19 3:49PM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 31
Very well done 1 view available tags
32	member 3/21/19 3:49PM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 31
Formally closing out the short here as I think risk/reward less attractive now over next few months due to takeover speculation. Still maintaining a short position, but sizing it lower and using $7.50 calls to... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
30	member 3/15/19 10:43AM Update on 4Q18 Results
**Biggest take-aways from quarter were: i) guidance was weak, forward estimates coming down sharply; ii) slashed 2019 capex in half to conserve cash; iii) traffic has been persistently negative even after culling the portfolio losers... login to read the rest* view available tags
29	member 2/04/19 3:00PM Agreement w/ Engaged Capital
DFRG announced this AM that they reached an agreement with Engaged Capital (9.9% owner). DFRG added a director to BOD who will oversee a transaction committee and dropped poison pill. Engaged agreed to a standstill at 15%... login to read the rest view available tags
27	member 1/03/19 3:36PM Net Debt Impact on Valuation
Providing a quick update here to highlight something I think people are missing. The net debt estimates used by brokers ($293mm) are way too low, inflating upside potential/target prices by over $2 per share. The... login to read the rest view available tags
24	member 12/07/18 3:49PM Re: Activist 22
My take on latest developments. Interested to hear thoughts/feedback/where I could be off. I do not believe DFRG is a viable take-out candidate at a premium BUT the threat reduces attractiveness of risk/reward on short side in... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
23	member 12/06/18 9:31AM Re: Activist 22
Link to letter from Engaged Capital to DFRG's BOD below. More color to come. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181206005323/en/ view available tags
22	member 12/06/18 8:54AM Activist
Fire_303, Thanks for the great write-up and updates! Any thoughts on Engaged? https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-investor-to-push-del-friscos-to-sell-itself-1544058181?emailToken=b4eefa3d684b8bcfab5f579669ca1b12comJzkpjC8YBj6V+2aYgalhx+Ly+TgqBDTilKCLu3FIdhopN9iTmHaS0v/dKQx+9GRZ/gpyo18MUKJH8yi0sKtOCDF+bshm8oju0G96b1go%3D&reflink=article_email_share view available tags
21	member 11/13/18 3:30AM 3Q18 Earnings
DFRG released earnings/held CC this morning after releasing the 10-Q after the close on Friday. Surprised by the strength in the stock today. Missed Street on revenue, comps, EBITDA, margins and EPS. Updated 2018 guidance... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 11/07/18 7:29PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno 19
Valid point. Public investors have been assigning irrational multiples to unit growth oriented restaurant names. I would add though that the multiple is still on the high end of where take-outs have occurred historically (9x),... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
19	member 11/07/18 11:40AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno 17
thanks for the thoughts on the 2019 numbers. the multiple has compressed significantly already who knows how low (or high) the multiple can go. view available tags
17	member 11/07/18 2:15AM Re: Re: Re: Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno 16
rtrdtx:I don't think the numbers mgmt. cited represent an inflection point for a few reasons. 1) The traffic declines are still terrible. 2) DFRG habitually provides misleading, positively spun color on comp trends. Mgmt. offers "green shoots" every call -... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
16	member 11/06/18 2:31PM Re: Re: Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno 15
What do you make of the 4Q comps trending positive? Do you think that's a one-time thing or is this business seeing an inflection point view available tags
15	member 11/06/18 2:00PM Re: Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno 14
thanks. what are you expecting for 2019 adjusted ebitda at this point? view available tags
14	member 11/06/18 12:24PM Prelim Top-Line Results: No Bueno
DFRG shifted tack again this morning by releasing preliminary top-line results and changing the earnings release date AGAIN to November 12 BMO. They also said that they will release their 10-Q on Friday night. The... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
13	member 11/06/18 11:36AM Re: Company postponed 3Q18 Earnings Release 12
they have released preliminary numbers this morning. great call and thanks for the continuous updates. 1 view available tags
12	member 11/05/18 10:22AM Company postponed 3Q18 Earnings Release
DFRG issued a PR this morning pushing earnings back to 11/13 BMO. They were scheduled to be released this morning. Cited additional time needed to finalize the accounting and tax treatmenet from Barteca acq., Sullivan's view available tags
11	member 10/23/18 1:26PM Update Pre-3Q18 Earnings
DFRG reports 3Q earnings BMO on 11/5. My take is that the print is going to be ugly. Continue to believe there is substantial downside in the stock. Earnings estimates still too optimistic and I... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
10	member 9/18/18 11:33PM DFRG's Secret Sauce: Buy High, Sell Low
-DFRG announced the sale of Sullivan’s this morning for a gross price of $32mm. Net proceeds are TBD as tax impact is uncertain. This is at the low end of Street expectations. Piper Jaffray expected... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
9	member 9/04/18 6:09PM Update + Accounting Red Flags
Debt Re-Pricing Since reporting 2Q earnings, DFRG has been forced to offer more generous terms to its lenders, despite a heavily dilutive equity raise. The interest rate on DFRG’s term loan increased from L+475 to L+600... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
8	member 8/02/18 9:06AM Massive Dilution from Equity Raise
The follow-on offering announced after the close of trading on Monday finally priced at $8 for gross proceeds (pre-shoe/post-shoe) of $90mm/$103.5mm. Assuming full exercise, I estimate net proceeds of ~$96mm. The offering may have been... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 7/31/18 10:42AM great call
. 2 view available tags
6	member 7/27/18 10:18PM Post Earnings Notes
Updates following 2Q earnings... Stock is down over 30% late April, approaching initial target of $10. Not closing out because I think there is much more downside as a result of the expensive (>14x+ ‘18E... login to read the rest 4 view available tags
5	member 5/30/18 4:35PM Re: Re: Re: Re: UPDATE 4
Thanks Mack. Valid point on the insider buying. Definitely a positive for the stock and insider buying has been pretty good in the past year or so. However, I would also note that the CEO... login to read the rest 1 view available tags

			2018	2019
Price:	16.00	EPS	0.68	0.93
Shares Out. (in M):	20	P/E	23.5	17.2
Market Cap (in $M):	325	P/FCF	N/A	N/A
Net Debt (in $M):	24	EBIT	16	21
TEV (in $M):	350	TEV/EBIT	21.9	16.7
Borrow Cost:	Available 0-15% cost

Description

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