Established in 1997 and public since 2003, Comba Telecom ("Comba") develops communications products that enhance coverage of mobile signals in China and internationally. Comba operates in four segments: wireless enhancement, antennas and subsystems, wireless access and services.
Wireless Enhancement (33% of revenues): Products receive radio signals from base stations, amplify them and re-transmit them to areas where base station signals cannot reach
Antennas and Subsystems (27% of revenues): Products consist of antennas and tower mounted amplifiers
Wireless Access (8% of revenues): Microwave products enable transmission b/w points where physical cable infrastructure is absent and WLAN products offer access point and access control solutions (i.e. hotspots)
Services (32% of revenues): Consultation, commissioning, network optimization, project management and after-sales maintenance services
Major customers include China Mobile (52% of revenues), China Unicom (24% of revenues), China Telecom (9% of revenues) and International (15% of revenues).
Investment Thesis
Industry Attractiveness
Comba's operations are levered to the wireless penetration and adoption in China as well as data usage
China is the world's largest wireless market with over 860 million subscribers and its subscriber base is growing by approximately 8-10 million subscribers per month
Introduction of smartphones is driving data usage and it is estimated that China is about three years behind the US in terms of smartphone penetration
Comba relies heavily on the capex spend of the major telco operators; major 3G buildout was completed during 2009/2010, as a result, more capex dollars will be spent on enhancing and optimizing the network, benefitting Comba's various divisions
Superior Market Positioning
Comba is the leading market player in China with an estimated 25-30% market share, twice its nearest competitor
Comba has the biggest scale with a national footprint, ~230 sales offices across China vs. 28 for its closest competitor
Company has the highest R&D spend resulting in technology lead/innovation vs. competitors, resulting in higher pricing power and higher margins
Differentiated Business Model
Unlike its competitors who are only components suppliers to major telco operators, Comba is a turnkey solutions provider offering integrated products and services touching all of its customers' needs across their capex cycle
Services segment, which provides higher margins (~40-50% gross margins) and a recurring revenue source, is expected to grow to 40% of overall business from current 30%
Due to services segment and technology lead, ~50% of sales come from direct negotiations with clients vs. centralized procurement/bidding process where decisions are mainly based off of product costs
Operational Track Record
Operational Metrics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Gross Margin
38%
39%
37%
38%
37%
SG&A as a % of Revenue
28%
28%
27%
22%
21%
ROE
10%
12%
25%
25%
25%
ROC
11%
12%
13%
22%
21%
Comba has been able to maintain its gross margins within the 37-39%range over the last 5 years (even during 2008/2009 period), despite most of its competitors dropping to 25-30% gross margin levels
Given fixed cost structure, there are increasing economies of scale benefits
Operating margins increased from 11% in 2006 to 17% in 2010
Sustainability of Margins
Although Comba's technology lead of 1-2 years vs. competitors is an important competitive advantage resulting in pricing power and higher ASPs, I think this is short-term in nature and focus on two other key competitive factors to help maintain margins going forward; (i) increasing contributions of services segment and (ii) large scale
Services
Services has grown from 15% of revenues in 2006 to ~30% in 2010, experiencing a 60% CAGR
Services is not only important because of its high gross margins relative to the components business, but it provides a recurring revenue source and allows the company to regularly interact with customers to identify their wireless needs, increasing Comba's stickiness to its customers
An important metric to measure how efficient their growth in this sector is revenue/service employee, where it increased from HKD220,000 in 2008 to HKD315,000 in 2010, thus growth is not generated only from adding number of people in the segment, but productivity/employee has also increased
Scale
Clients tend to favor companies with a national footprint (easier from procurement standpoint and more efficient to roll-out same type of solutions providing a more stable and consistent service to its subscribers)
Comba's broad product portfolio and integrated solutions provider benefits the telecom operators, who are focused on supply chain consolidation / simplification
Scale leads to operating leverage (i.e. smaller players who don't have a sales office in a specific region need to make additional capital investments in property and people to generate sales, while incremental sales for Comba to go straight to the bottom line)
Comba's broad array of products also protects it from fluctuating business cycles as its various products and services are geared to the full build-out cycle of a telecom operator's network, resulting in higher visibility of its earnings
In addition to economies of scale which results in better bargaining power against its suppliers (i.e. longer payment periods), Comba's broader product options and larger volumes allow it to turn its inventory at a much faster turnover rate, improving its cash conversion cycle and resulting in higher ROIC
Alignment of Interests
Management and insiders own 45% of the stock
Besides exercising some expiring options, which make up a small % of the outstanding shares, management has not sold a big portion of their stock
Valuation
Comba is currently trading at 10x LTMP/E for a company that is expected to earnings by 20% in 2011
Balancing the company's growth prospects with the risks highlighted, I value the company at 15x P/E (lower than historical average), resulting in a share price of ~HKD7.58 over a 2-yr hold, >50% premium vs current trading price
Acquisition of ADC Telecommunications, a US based comp, by Tyco in July 2010 was made at a 24x P/E and 12x EBITDA
Risks
Competitive sector creating downward pressure on ASPs and margins
Revenues rely on capex program of major telco operators
Revenue concentration of top 3 telco operators in China comprise 85% of sales
Due to the nature of the sales cycle, company has extensive working capital needs with long receivable days and collection periods
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