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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
39	member 3/02/16 6:06PM RIP Aubrey McClendon
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chesapeake-enrgy-mcclendon-idUSKCN0W42ME view available tags
37	member 2/08/16 9:41PM Re: Notes due 3/15/2016; 2017 maturities 36
Sheeesh well I would not want to play poker with these people. They hired Evercore then did the bond swap. They hired these lawyers and then bought the debt back at 84 cents that... login to read the rest view available tags
34	member 2/08/16 3:25PM Re: Re: Re: Kirkland & Ellis 33
I don't think we'll ever have enough info to know the timing. There are contracts with suppliers, leases, etc. So many moving parts. I still think the earlier the better. The encumberances you... login to read the rest view available tags
33	member 2/08/16 2:19PM Re: Re: Kirkland & Ellis 32
Bankruptcy is always an option for a company in this predicament so why do it now with $4-5bn of liquidity? I understand your qualitative arguments Surf1680, but CHK just encumbered its assets with 2nd liens and presumably will prime... login to read the rest view available tags
32	member 2/08/16 1:34PM Re: Kirkland & Ellis 31
I bought more of the 2020 debt today so I am biased but here's how I look at it: My "worst case" scenario was for them to stretch for time and in the process encumber all their... login to read the rest -1 view available tags
31	member 2/08/16 11:29AM Kirkland & Ellis
Thoughts? wondering why a bankruptcy filing is a near-term consideration given that the company just completed a 2nd lien exchange and they still have ~$4bn in an undrawn 1st lien borrowing base credit facility. Banks are clearly nervous given pressure on commodity... login to read the rest view available tags
28	member 1/05/16 9:28AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Unit economics 26
Thanks Slim, very helpful. What are the EBITDA and EBITDA-Capex breakeven points for each business? Assuming it is $2.50-3/mcfe range for Nat Gas and +$50/boe for Oil. Specific numbers would be helpful. view available tags
27	member 1/05/16 1:08AM 2020 debt instead of 2017?
After reading your writeup and thinking about it a bit, I am more attracted to something like the 2020 debt that trades in the $.26-$.31 range. I wonder why you don't see it this... login to read the rest view available tags
25	member 1/04/16 2:32PM Re: Re: Unit economics 24
Got it. 2 follow up questions: 1. Where would nat gas and oil prices have to be for CHK to seriously consider filing before the 6.25% notes mature? and 2. How much additional opex can CHK take... login to read the rest view available tags
23	member 1/04/16 9:53AM Unit economics
Thanks for the update Slim. Per my question a few weeks ago, can you provide a breakdown of the unit cost assumptions you are using for each of the 3 commodities for 16/17/18? The issue with longer-term... login to read the rest view available tags
17	member 12/16/15 6:18PM Debt Capacity
Slim - based on your write-up secured debt capacity is: $4bn 1st lien and $2bn 2nd lien, so CHK still has $6bn of secured debt capacity, is that correct? what are the most restrictive covenants view available tags
16	member 12/16/15 9:59AM Exchange results
Slim or anyone else - what's your read from the results of the first deadline? Thanks in advance. view available tags
13	member 12/15/15 6:36PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Evercore hired 12
I don't believe CHK will file until they exhaust every possible avenue to improve liquidity. This is a bet on higher nat gas prices, so why extinguish the option today with $2BN 2nd lien capacity... login to read the rest view available tags
12	member 12/15/15 4:54PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Evercore hired 11
I am generally of the view that voluntary bankruptcy risk is being under-priced in a lot of E&P and metals and mining situations. We've already seen a number of companies file with liquidity, including coal (ACI..missed interest... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 12/14/15 6:37PM Re: Re: Re: Few questions 5
From talking to people who are in this credit, most assume these 2nd liens will trade in the low 70s. view available tags
5	member 12/14/15 4:43PM Re: Re: Few questions 4
Got it. So lets assume I buy the bonds at ~63c today and exchange them at ~97 on Dec 31, I make 34 bond points or ~50% return in 2 weeks, assuming the 2nd liens... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 12/14/15 3:28PM Few questions
Thanks for the write-up Slim, interesting. The key to this trade is cash flow/liquidity beyond 2017 in my opinion, otherwise I tend to agree with TwoSigma. Some questions: 1. Unit economics - can you provide a breakdown of the unit... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 12/11/15 6:43PM Early file risk?
I think the biggest risk here, one that you are not addressing, is the potential for an early filing. If in August 2017, CHK is almost fully tapped out on its first and second lien... login to read the rest 4 view available tags

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			2015	2016
Price:	63.38	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	660,000	P/E	0	0
Market Cap (in $M):	660M	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	0	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	0	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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