Description

Hi, guys --

I think it's time to start de-accumulating CVM shares for long term investment gains.

Sabordesoledad wrote this up back in 2019:

https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CEL-SCI_CORP/4886550365

There's a lot of history here, but briefly: Everything about the company screams, "I am a fraud!". Not just a fraud, but a long running fraud! Not just a long running fraud, but a rainbow-colored unicorn pooping Hershey's Kisses with almonds in the centre while asking your views on polyamory because you seem really open to new experiences long running fraud! Not just a -- OK, I'll stop there.

They have this thing they call Multikine. It's supposed to an immunotherapy that, when delivered prior to other treatment, can prime the human immune system to fight off cancer. Can you say woo? I knew you could. There was no prior science, or evidence, or possible mechanisms that I've seen to justify initial testing; this is a cocktail of different agents at doses that couldn't have been well understood at the time, a true "toss the collander at the ceiling" approach. The inital indications were for head, neck and throat cancer, which would be a huge market on its own, but if that worked, sky's the limit. Who wouldn't want a cure for cancer?

The bull thesis to date has been that, since the trial has been running for so long -- it started in 2010 -- the *very length of the trial*, which was condtioned on the number of deaths, plus the refusal of the Independent Data Monitoring Committee to stop the trial for futility, is strong evidence that the cocktail works. There are two prongs to this: 1 is that the # of deaths was much lower than expected, gotta be something going there, 2 is that it can't be due just to overall improvements because if it were, the IDMC would have stopped the trial for futility. The bull case is laid out repeatedly and at length on SeekingAlpha. This all sounds like complete unicorn poo to me, but I haven't seen an actual refutation of the (old) bull case, and would appreciate it if anyone could point me to one. What I'm getting at here is, just because the company's a fraud doesn't mean the drug doesn't work, blind pigs, acorns, etc.

But that's all water under the bridge. The old bull thesis has been rendered moot by CVM's long long long delayed release of the study data:

https://www.irdirect.net/prviewer/release_only/id/4763752

Multikine didn't work,although unsurprisingly there were promising results for a post-hoc specified sub-group. CVM is claiming that these promising results mean that the FDA will approve the treatment, which, no, man, that's not going to happen, they'll need to start over from square 1.

That's the background. Now on to the trading dynamics. I'd love to get feedback on this. Why short it now, when it's down 66% from recent highs? In fact, in this market, why short anything at all, ever? What are you, f*cking stupid? Because there was no bounce, and this is a zero, that's why.

I'm not saying short it to zero. The fields of short-it-to-zero are filled with bones of the dead, most memorably and ill-fatedly for me, NIO. But this isn't at zero.Above $5. Market cap > $300MM. There's some juice left here.

Full-disclosure-wise, I'm short this between $11 and $16 upon learning of the trial results, and would have been short more at higher prices if it weren't for the trading halts and my cautious nature. I'm presenting it to the club now instead of at my prices because one shouldn't expect a real-time service here, and, frankly, I think, based on ONE DAY'S TRADING RESULTS, it's less speculative than it was at the time. The ONE DAY'S TRADING bit is supported by the usual social media surveillance. Maybe the best way to put is that, it looks like, astonishingly to me, some investors actually expected approval for Multikine -- like, a significant part of the shareholder base -- and there just aren't enough Teruo Nakamuras

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teruo_Nakamura)

around to keep the price up.

This is unactionable for much of the membership. But when thinking about possibly participating, be aware that the CEO will be discussing the study results tomorrow starting around 10:10 EST. I expect his remarks to be a pump fest. But they might turn into a dump fest. Just a heads up that you should be prepared for significant volatility tommorow, including the possibility of a dramatic rise in the stock.

No pipleine biotechs that didn't meet endpoints used to immediately crash to cash below, mostly below. That was then, this is now. Tough to say with this one; the CEO is *soo* promotional, which is bad for the short, on the other hand it might take time to recruit a new shareholder base given how thoroughly fucked over the current one is. I might cover or go long at any time depending on how things evolve, but am thinking I'll defer "short to zero" risks until market cap < $100MM.

Went back to say, the market is nuts, losses on shorts are theoretically infinite, please consider your tolerance for losses or alternate ways of expressing a negative opinion on this stock.

Bowd

Catalyst

This is a worthless security.