CROCS INC CROX
August 12, 2023 - 6:31pm EST by
member
| 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Price: | 100.59 | EPS | 12.9 | 17.6 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 62 | P/E | 7.8x | 5.7x | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 6,201 | P/FCF | 8.1x | 7.3x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 1,861 | EBIT | 1 | 1 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 8,061 | TEV/EBIT | 7.0x | 6.1x | |||
Description
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You are not eligible to view 11 messages. To gain access to more recent message posts signup free for membership.
| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 47 | |
Jim,
As I read the 2021 Investor Day transcript and the guide for $5bn in Crocs 2026 revenue, there are 4 ways they get there:
1) increasing digital sales to 50%, which it seems they have in... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Thank you! | |
| 44 | |
Hi Jim - thanks a lot for the note. Do you know how big is the China business? Is it around $400M LTM? I thought I saw it somewhere. Thanks! | |
| 42 | |
your read is probably right and is one the reasons for the weakness. to Honky's point-if one believed in the long-term durability of Crocs--then not sure deceleration into Q4 is too worrisome given the valuation.... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
From the transcript: For the Crocs Brand, revenues were $858 million growing 8% to prior year, and channel growth was balanced, with DTC and wholesale each growing 8%. The growth was volume-driven, with units increasing 11%... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
they are close to 100% GM | |
| 38 | |
Does anyone know what the gross margins are on jibbitz. I’m assuming they’re higher than company margins?
thanks | |
| 37 | |
seems like it may be interesting here. core crocs continues to do really well. Heydude appears to be the challenge. At least for now, Management remains committed to heydude----so assuming core crocs remains healthy--either a)... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
Hi Jim,
You make some interesting points here that we spent some time looking into. We believe that we get similar sell through data. Looking into the issue, we think what you may be missing is... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
NB noticed a couple of period typos, correcting to avoid confusion:
Putting numbers on it, Crocs called out that N Am Crocs brick and mortar 1Q24 4Q23 ‘sell in’ was up “double digits”, meanwhile 2Q24 1Q24... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
Saw your comment under my Google post. Happy to chat Crox. I am expecting (hoping?) tomorrow's earnings will be a non-event given the pre-announcement and guidance in January, but we will see. Probably more to... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Apologies for the delay from me on Q3. My thoughts, should anyone want to discuss…
The bad:
The dramatic Hey dude guide down does raise legitimate questions around mgmt’s communication and management of expectations around the brand
Earlier... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
conceptually,yes. but they sound intent to manage it (HD), invest in it, and underwrite operating cost growth to do so (i.e. outlets). if they don't, its an admission that they overpaid, but also it raises... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
Why is HD visibility so poor? its this transitory and related to a turnover in strategic accounts and wholesale relationships? tweaks in desired sales mix? a or does management have an inability to manage HD expectations... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Not sure if it is a fad in hospitals but I am seeing probably over 50% of healthcare professionals in hospitals wear crocs and asking a few of them they say they are extremely comfortable.... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
I also agree with your $ at risk framework, it's a clean way of looking at it (if the scenarios / distribution is correct - to your point).
The one conceptual push back I suppose is... login to read the rest | |
| 24 | |
Thanks Jim,
I generally agree with you here that LEAPS might give you a better risk/reward -- particularly the OTM LEAPS. I'm a biotech specialist and have had success in the past using OTM LEAPS to... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Thanks MrStingy - that’s a good qu and one I’ve also been thinking about (less recently – find it trickier getting institutional traction on options!)
To quickly share how I think about options (nothing earth shattering... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
I very much enjoyed this write up. At this point, one can purchase Jan 2026 LEAPS for ATM ($85 strike) for $30. Thinking about what would have to happen for these not to break-even...
LEAPS should... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Hi uncleM - nothing further from me beyond my response to a similar qu from 2fly below. Now it's public, taking a closer look at BIRK's business and financials is on the todo list. At... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
Unfortunately, I got the IR lieutenant as he said the new IR was on the road seeing investors, so a handful of my questions weren't addressed / answered adequately. He did say building out the... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
Good points from both of y'all re the consensus views. WinBrun - I certainly see your point, as many stocks trading at 7x ultimately end up to be over-earning. In this case, there are certainly... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
Jim--that is a very analytical and thoughtful response. My suspicion is much less grounded. It seems (and again this is just my sense and it would not hold up in a court of law) that... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Hi WinBrun, are you able to elaborate on this being a consensus long? My sense is quite the opposite, that very few people seem interested ("not buying a single product plastic shoe company into a... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
It was cheaper when I posted it at $49 last year. This is a stock that naturally gets cheap imo - like the shoes, people love to hate it. But yea, I agree with you... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
what makes me concerned is how obviously cheap this is on the surface and how it is become a consensus long in some circles. It feels like the shorts know something. | |
| 13 | |
2fly - No special insight on Birkenstock from me, I haven't studied the business, although note the F-1 seems to have been filed 5 days ago on the 12th Sep: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1977102/000119312523233488/d541624df1.htm#rom541624_10. Flicking through looks like FY22... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Looked at this comp too, new BIRKENSTOCK (BIRK) IPO will be a nice guide too... CROX still appears a lot cheaper and with higher margins. Any comment Jim Snow on BIRK as a comp as | |
| 11 | |
this is really is growing. different businesses, different brands----but high-level---
Deckers projected 2023 Revenue:$4B/EBITDA ~$800m/20% margin--Market Cap: $14B/EV: $13B; Deck: 23x P/E
Crocs projected 2023 Revenue: $4B/EBITDA/EBITDA: $1.1B (28% margin): Crocs: Market Capitalization: ~$5.7B/EV: ~$7.7B; 7x P/E
there... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
Hi 2fly,
Fair qu. Jibbitz was acquired by Crocs in 2006 and has been a core part of the business ever since. Jibbitz is almost pure margin - GMs >90% on these things. It's probably also true... login to read the rest | |