COTT CORP QUE COT
March 01, 2018 - 2:14pm EST by
member
| 2018 | 2019 | ||||||
| Price: | 15.00 | EPS | .46 | .57 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 140 | P/E | 30 | 25 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 2,100 | P/FCF | 6% | 7% | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 945 | EBIT | 250 | 300 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 3,045 | TEV/EBIT | 12 | 1 | |||
Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 41 | |
I like the idea and think it will eventually work but am skeptical of the Cargill plant. I have spoken to the co-op guys probably 3-4 times over the last 6 months, and each... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
Any updated thoughts on IPSU? Refined prices are dropping rapidly and volumes were off 20% in the December Q due to excellent beet crop, but I am struggling with the timing here (might have something... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Did you get any confirm on the delay, or any other data for that matter? | |
| 37 | |
am still in this one, though slightly smaller. i am hoping that the rebound will take this to the low 30's so i can reestablish the full position.
Here are some thoughts:
a) ... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
Are you still with this trade or did the rapid decline move you out? The numbers/dividend were clearly surprising. | |
| 33 | |
sorry, not really qualified on T&L. their splenda business, exposure to european regulatory changes, and general world sugar exposure vs the US market that ipsu plays in make them pretty different... | |
| 31 | |
i seem to recall that they are currently importing sugar due to crop issues of their own, but historically they are one of the world's largest sugar exporters. in any case, once hfcs enters | |
| 29 | |
I think a lot of comments have been centered on Cargill's entry into the market. What seems to be ignored is that this is a joint venture (50/50) with Louisiana Sugar Cane, a co-op that... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
it depends on your lens i guess. i think that the realistic earnings for this company is $1 at best. they have $50m of cash, but also $120m of underfunded pension that they... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
sorry, crop is well ahead of last year's but more in-line with historical averages, apologies... | |
| 24 | |
latest beet crop update is out- bearish for ipsu. beet farmers are pulling out the crop really quickly, maybe to take advantage of current high sugar prices. you can see the numbers at: | |
| 23 | |
I was looking at the spread between the raw sugar price and the refined beet sugar price. It jumped above 7 cents in 3/80, and stayed above 7 cents for nearly every month through... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
the supply disruption caused a shortage which hasn't yet been resolved (though this is starting to change), accounting for the high price.
i see a high price for 5 quarters in 1980, not sure where you... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Thanks for the great write-up.
A few questions:
1. Domino's Chalmette sugar refinery reopened last December from the hurricanes. Why do you think refined prices have stayed up so long?
2. I spent some time looking at... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
the raw sugar price is basically set at .21 through subsidies. the big disparity has been in the refined sugar price, which is generally .05 higher or so but has been as much as... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
Thanks for reply, maybe I am confusing what "sugar" means in your previous response. Are you referring to refined sugar or raw sugar?
Why does higher supply of sugarbeets have an influence on refined sugar price?... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
i actually don't think the transaction is relevant, though i'll admit that this won't be my highest-confidence answer. my sense is that beet capacity is more expensive than cane capacity (only comp i could... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
sugar has been in short supply since the outage, and has been on allocation. once the beet crop comes in, there will be plenty of sugar for everyone. both the suppliers and the... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
building low-cost capacity in a commodity industry is a perfectly reasonable way to invest, especially for cargill. i would assume that cargill's business case revolves around a) a captive source of supply of sugar... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
my understanding is that schultze made an offer to buy the company for $17, the company gave them access to their books for 6 months, and schultze revised the offer to $10.50. The company... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Chalmette came back online in the early part of this calendar year and has been, in recent quarters, running near pre-Katrina utilization. This suggest, industry refining capacity has been back to normal in recent quarters,... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
If the business is so bad, why is Cargill adding capacity - 9% to US capacity by my calcs.
Thanks - very interesting | |
| 10 | |
the cargill plant was announced to cost $100m, but will probably end up costing $130m. it will process around 20m cwt of sugar (1m tons), so the replacement cost is $6.50/cwt. imperial has... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
Great idea.
What is your estimate of the current replacement cost of the business? What would it cost someone to build the same two sugar refineries located next door to the ones they currently have? | |
| 8 | |
it's 100 pounds to a cwt | |
| 7 | |
i think the imports would be refined, because there will be plenty of refining capacity in mexico once the refined sugar is pushed out by hfcs from the US. but i agree, there are... login to read the rest | |
| 6 | |
they use 2.2-2.4mbtu of gas per year. so, a $4 swing would be around $9m or $5.5m after-tax (.40/share). they currently have 10% hedged (my prior post was a mistake) but increase it... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
what's the conversion ratio btw. pound and cwt? tks. | |
| 4 | |
How sure are you that reducing barriers to Mexican sugar will hurt IPSU? I haven't been able to figure out if the additional sugar which will come from Mexico will be raw (would lower... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
can you clarify tho what the sensitivity is to natural gas, assuming no volumes were hedged? i.e., what is annual nat gas uasage? so we can then calculate what the benfit would be... login to read the rest | |