2015 | 2016 | ||||||
Price: | 0.70 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 63 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 44 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 201 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 245 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 |
Sign up for free guest access to view investment idea with a 45 days delay.
Content and Entertainment Group (CEG): The segment includes distribution and acquisition of independent entertainment content. The segment can be further divided into two subgroups i) Home Entertainment and Theatrical releases, and ii) Digital network. Home entertainment business is currently a $22bln market in the US and growing at 8%+ rate. Physical distribution (DVDs, CDs, etc) that makes up approx. 60% of the current market spent is in a decline while digital (video-on-demand and subscription streaming) are growing rapidly. Cinedigm currently generates most of its revenues from physical sales but has a massive content library which it intends to leverage to develop its digital network business and boost revenues and earnings.
FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | |
DEPLOYMENT BUSINESS | |||||||||||
Phase I Screens | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,514 | 1,449 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Phase II Screens (Not under Exhibitor Buyer Structure) | 1,815 | 2,503 | 2,503 | 2,514 | 2,514 | 2,514 | 2,514 | 2,514 | 2,354 | 1,729 | 699 |
Phase I Leased Screens | 210 | 2,275 | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,724 | 3,724 | |||||
Total Phase II Screens (only used to estimate service rev) | 6,609 | 7,980 | 8,904 | 8,904 | 8,904 | 8,904 | 8,904 | 8,904 | 8,850 | 8,568 | 5,709 |
Phase I Revenue Estimate | |||||||||||
VPF Estimate on Owned Screens | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 | $1,200 |
VPF Estimate on Leased Screens (20% of Normal) | $396 | $396 | $396 | $396 | $396 | $396 | |||||
Screen Turnover | 9.9 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
Total Revenue (,000s) | $44,241 | $39,772 | $36,197 | $36,197 | $38,432 | $36,980 | $22,701 | $12,682 | $12,682 | $12,682 | $12,682 |
Y/Y Revenue Growth | -10.1% | -9.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | -3.8% | -38.6% | -44.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Phase I Revenue | |||||||||||
VPF Estimate on Owned Screens | $1,061 | $624 | $598 | $599 | $598 | $598 | $598 | $598 | $598 | $598 | $598 |
Total Revenue (,000s) | $13,033 | $12,464 | $12,146 | $12,335 | $12,929 | $12,929 | $12,929 | $12,929 | $12,106 | $8,892 | $3,595 |
Y/Y Revenue Growth | -4.4% | -2.6% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.4% | -26.6% | -59.6% | |
Total Revenues (Phase I and Phase II) | $57,274 | $52,236 | $48,343 | $48,532 | $51,361 | $49,909 | $35,630 | $25,611 | $24,789 | $21,574 | $16,277 |
Deployment EBITDA | $55,741 | $50,733 | $46,472 | $46,961 | $47,765 | $46,415 | $33,136 | $23,819 | $23,053 | $20,064 | $15,138 |
EBITDA Margin | 97.3% | 97.1% | 96.1% | 96.8% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% |
SERVICE BUSINESS | |||||||||||
Service Revenue $000s | $18,128 | $12,932 | $12,558 | $12,161 | $11,310 | $10,518 | $9,782 | $9,097 | $8,460 | $7,868 | $7,317 |
Service Revenue Growth Rate | -28.7% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.0% | |
Services EBITDA | $4,355 | $8,126 | $9,227 | $9,242 | $7,917 | $7,363 | $6,847 | $6,368 | $5,922 | $5,508 | $5,122 |
EBITDA Margin | 24.0% | 62.8% | 73.5% | 76.0% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Total EBITDA | $60,096 | $58,859 | $55,699 | $56,203 | $55,682 | $53,778 | $39,984 | $30,187 | $28,976 | $25,572 | $20,260 |
PV of Cash Flows (8.5% discount rate) | $51,320 | $45,682 | $31,303 | $21,782 | $19,270 | $15,674 | $11,445 | ||||
Note: Fiscal Year ends on March 31st. | |||||||||||
Total Net Equity Value | $196,477 | ||||||||||
Total Non-Recourse Debt | $147,138 | ||||||||||
Net Value | $49,339 |
Base Case | Bull Case | Comments | ||||||
Deployment Segment - Total Equity Value | $196,477 | $250,395 | Bull case based on Sabra's model | |||||
Total Non-Recourse Debt | $147,138 | $147,138 | ||||||
Net Value of Deployment Business | $49,339 | $103,257 | ||||||
Home Entertainment Business | $47,000 | $94,000 | 1 - 2x LTM revenues from CED business | |||||
Digital Network | $30,000 | $60,000 | 0.5x - 1x value of one succesful OTT channel EBITDA at 5x | |||||
CEG Total Debt (excluding Convertible Debt) | $18,984 | $18,984 | Excludes $64mm of convertible debt | |||||
Cash | $29,247 | $29,247 | ||||||
Net Equity Value | $136,602 | $267,520 | ||||||
Shares Underlying | 115,593 | 115,593 | Inclues 52.9mm shares from convertible bond | |||||
Implied Share Price | $1.18 | $2.31 | ||||||
Current Stock Price | $0.70 | |||||||
Upside Potential | 69% | 231% |
Amount | Approx. Interest Rate | Issue Date | Maturity | Interest / Yr (000s) | Comment | |
Cash and Cash Equivalent | $29,247 | |||||
Non-Recourse Debt | ||||||
2013 TL, Net of debt discount | $53,839 | 3.8% | Feb-13 | Feb-18 | $2,019 | Under restatement with SG, can borrow up to $130mm |
Prospect Capital Loan | $67,449 | 13.5% | Feb-13 | Mar-21 | $9,106 | Can be paid anytime after Feb 2015; penalties applicable - 5% in 2015 |
KBC Facilities | $25,100 | 4.0% | 2008 | 2018 - 2019 | $1,004 | Multiple maturity dates; Principal is to be repaid in 28 qrtly installments |
P2 Vendor Note | $508 | |||||
P2 Exhibitor Note | $242 | |||||
Total Non-Recourse Notes Payable | $147,138 | $12,129 | ||||
Recourse Debt | ||||||
Cinedigm TL | $0 | 6.0% | Oct-13 | $0 | Refinanced with Convertible debt in April 2015 | |
Cinedigm Revolving Loans | $15,127 | 6.0% | Oct-13 | $908 | borrow up to $30mm | |
2013 Notes | $3,857 | 9.0% | Oct-13 | Oct-18 | $347 | sold warrants to purchase 1.5mm shares |
Convertible Debt | $64,000 | 5.5% | Apr-15 | Apr-20 | $3,520 | |
Total Recourse Notes Payable | $82,984 | $4,775 | ||||
Total | $230,122 | $16,903 | ||||
Net Debt | $200,875 |
- quarterly update on subscription and revenues generated from digital network segment
- Additional share repurchase annoucement
- Strategic sale or spinoff
- Setllment with Gaiam with meaningful claims
show sort by |
Are you sure you want to close this position CINEDIGM CORP?
By closing position, I’m notifying VIC Members that at today’s market price, I no longer am recommending this position.
Are you sure you want to Flag this idea CINEDIGM CORP for removal?
Flagging an idea indicates that the idea does not meet the standards of the club and you believe it should be removed from the site. Once a threshold has been reached the idea will be removed.
You currently do not have message posting privilages, there are 1 way you can get the privilage.
Apply for or reactivate your full membership
You can apply for full membership by submitting an investment idea of your own. Or if you are in reactivation status, you need to reactivate your full membership.
What is wrong with message, "".