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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
20	member 5/06/21 7:42AM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 19
Closing this one out as it has crossed $50. I know everything is pointing in the right direction for this business (high nitrogen pricing, low gas costs, strong crop prices, etc.) but for all intents and purposes, the... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 3/29/21 12:01PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Nice Call 17
I have a more constructive take. China exports have been down dramatically for the year. CF mentioned that seaborne was sold out. As such, China could withhold a lot of volume knowing that it would... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
17	member 3/28/21 2:35PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Nice Call 16
This is the right take. I see fair value as $50, as spelled out in the initial write-up and comments below. We're close to that (still under) but I've kept this one open as I think there are... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
15	member 1/13/21 10:00AM baml raising numbers and target
Expects NOLA urea at $290/t and $310/t for Q1/21 and Q2/21, respectively. Sees $1.65bn in EBITDA for 2021e, +15% revision. view available tags
14	member 1/13/21 8:09AM Re: Re: Re: Nice Call 13
Tight Chinese nitrogen is definitely the short-term scenario here. How long this dynamic plays out is anyone's guess, but ultimately this should normalize as the abnormally cold weather in China passes. There is talk of Chinese industry... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 1/12/21 1:04PM Re: Re: Nice Call 12
interesting point on chinese anthracite. Maybe the market hasn't realized that LNG into asia has exploded higher as Gorgon is down and its unusually cold in Asia/Europe? this is pushing HUGE swathes off the cost... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
12	member 1/12/21 9:28AM Re: Nice Call 11
Thanks Motherlode, you hit all the leading indicators which also leads me to believe ammonia / urea are poised to run. I think the only data point the street / market wants to see is Chinese anthracite pricing... login to read the rest view available tags
10	member 6/18/20 7:10PM Re: Re: hasn't this basically been the thesis for a while now? 9
fair enough, thanks for a good response. by the way, I basically agree with you on natgas. China coal was my main concern 1 view available tags
9	member 6/18/20 5:10PM Re: hasn't this basically been the thesis for a while now? 8
This is a commodity business so there are very few levers for value creation. As such, the thesis for an investment case in this business will always likely be focused on the commodity inputs. Point #1... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
8	member 6/18/20 1:50PM hasn't this basically been the thesis for a while now?
around 2-2.5 years ago I bought OCI on the same thesis ... nitrogen prices had to recover since 1) latest round of supply additions is over, and 2) Chinese coal pricing should normalize, leading to... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 6/18/20 10:30AM Re: spot pricing/sensitivity 6
See slide 18 for CF's sensitivity to urea pricing. https://s1.q4cdn.com/264428898/files/doc_presentations/2020/05/1/Q1-2020-Earnings-Presentation.pdf. See post 2 to get a sense of how to bridge from EBITDA to FCF. I've assumed $240 / t as CF's average realized urea price for the... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 6/18/20 9:57AM spot pricing/sensitivity
I see latest spot pricing (5/31) as closer to $201/ton and see that spot got as low as $142/ton in 2016. Are you using $225/ton as an average for 2020? And, given current and the... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 6/18/20 9:12AM Re: question 3
I got the info on Koch from FactSet's CF Industries ownership list, see the screenshot below. It looks like Koch was buying aggressively in Q1-20 and owns 3.5mm shares. Their estimated average cost is in the $35... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 6/18/20 7:31AM Re: Normalized FCF 1
Thanks virtualodin. Since we are halfway through 2020, let's use management's guide for this year's numbers which equates to $550mm in excess cash flow (i.e. after div payments). Assuming the current share price of $30.00 and all excess... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 6/17/20 6:09PM Normalized FCF
Thanks for the write-up, very clearly articulated thesis. Could you expand a bit on the math behind this paragraph - Using pre-COVID urea pricing of $275 t / ton, which was and can still be supported by... login to read the rest view available tags

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			2020	2021
Price:	30.00	EPS	0.95	1.01
Shares Out. (in M):	216	P/E	31.6	29.6
Market Cap (in $M):	6,480	P/FCF	8.1	7.5
Net Debt (in $M):	3,670	EBIT	533	533
TEV (in $M):	10,150	TEV/EBIT	18	17.1

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