CBL & ASSOCIATES PPTYS INC CBL
May 30, 2016 - 4:47pm EST by
member
| 2016 | 2017 | ||||||
| Price: | 9.50 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 200 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 1,900 | P/FCF | 4.1 | 4.1 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 4,960 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 7,485 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
- CBL & ASSOCIATES PPTYS INC CBL 09/15/2017
- CBL & ASSOCIATES PPTYS INC CBL 01/03/2014
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Description
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You are not eligible to view 46 messages. To gain access to more recent message posts signup free for membership.
| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 81 | |
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. At 60-70% occupied, that mall sounds like it was already in the death spiral zone. I like that the properties with ring-fenced CMBS debt have the put option and the... login to read the rest | |
| 79 | |
If you have a Gmail account, try pasting/opening the image into a blank Google Doc, then copying again and pasting into the VIC message. | |
| 78 | |
Your blog post highlights malls without air conditioning. This is not exactly representative of any public mall REIT properties. The public mall REITs do not really own C and D malls. CBL has dropped nearly... login to read the rest | |
| 76 | |
51
elehunter
1 day 19 hrs ago
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bearish case?
50
For the record, my post below was the bottom for CBL today. Nice 3.5%+ intraday reversal for you bulls.... login to read the rest | |
| 75 | |
I've got a relevant historical chart of Retail REIT transaction cap rates from 2006 - Present, but how do I post it? I've tried to cut-and-paste from Word but it doesn't work. I've also got... login to read the rest | |
| 74 | |
Last split they did was 2005. They did a large issuance in 2009 that caused the s/o to jump. As far as I can tell, that $50 price from 2007 is real.
Additionally, NAV in the... login to read the rest | |
| 72 | |
Does seem hard to believe, but I'm just plugging some numbers into a formula and stating what pops out. If a blended cap rate of 7.8% really is appropriate for a mall portfolio with blended... login to read the rest | |
| 71 | |
Stock price was over $50 per share, not sure what you are talking about. Stock was over $20 at the beginning of 2015. Debt is $1.5b lower and total rental revenue is almost the same. | |
| 69 | |
Thanks, I think that's a really useful chart and regression formula.
Plugging in CBL's aggregate $372 Sales/Sqft into your formula gives a P/NOI multiple of 12.88x, or a cap rate of 7.76%. According to my calculation | |
| 68 | |
I think the discount stores like Ross and Marshall's are as big of a hit to the department stores and low end retailers as Amazon/internet sales. They offer no eCommerce sales but are continuing to... login to read the rest | |
| 67 | |
aagold--Sorry about that, here is the chart:
Using the new methodology we get a blended average cap-rate for CBL of around 8.0%. Of course, it would be a homerun if we can get a reversion to | |
| 62 | |
After working through some more algebra I've come to the conclusion that it's necessary to know property-level NOI in order to properly value a real estate portfolio. Then it's possible to compute V = sum_i(NOI_i... login to read the rest | |
| 61 | |
HKUP,
For the A mall REITs, the risk is close to zero because most market participants have irrationally discounted the "quality" of these A malls. As part of my research, I have toured the JCP in... login to read the rest | |
| 60 | |
I think GGP's implied cap rate is ~6%. This is just using estimates on Factset. FWIW, the average NAV estimate from the sell side is $31.98/share, with a range from $27.14 - $36.70. The average... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
Is there any way you can post the price multiple (P/NOI) regression chart in Message #52 using some other format or cut-paste technique? That sounds like an interesting chart I'd like to see, but it's... login to read the rest | |
| 57 | |
A few more quotes from GGP CEO:
"Our capital allocation decisions reflects the value we see in the portfolio. We view our own stock to be attractive at these levels, and we were active buying it... login to read the rest | |
| 56 | |
CBL should have delevered a bit since the end of the quarter with the sale at least four assets so far (~$300mm in proceeds). Selling just a few larger, 100% owned, higher quality properties will... login to read the rest | |
| 55 | |
I haven't studied the other mall REITs yet so I can't comment on relative values.
It seems like leverage is becoming an issue for CBL. Their senior unsecured notes have a Total Debt / Total... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
I'm unable to view that image (in Message #52) on my screen. Anything different about it than Message #40?
Yes, SPSF x GLA makes sense as a weighting metric. However, I suspect that choice of weighting... login to read the rest | |
| 52 | |
aagold,
Good suggestion. I ran it again using the multiple (P/NOI) instead of the cap rate (NOI/P). I tried it two ways, as a linear regression like you suggested and as a polynomial to add the... login to read the rest | |
| 50 | |
I've got it currently trading at a 10.9% cap rate, so not sure why you're saying reverting to 11.0% would result in 25% increase in stock price. Here's my calculation:
$7.20/sh * 199.281M fully diluted and... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
A simpler way to estimate the mall portfolio's value based on recent transactions is to use the company's aggregated $372 Sales/sqft metric and apply it to SlackTide's cap rate plot (Message #40). Eyeballing the chart,... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
The dividend has not needed to be cut as the FFO payout ratio is 52.5% last quarter, if anything they could raise that payout ratio. New retail development has been at 50-year lows for 8... login to read the rest | |
| 43 | |
SlackTide,
First of all, thanks for sharing some interesting analysis. I've got a few technical questions for you.
1) Your regression analysis in Message #40 looks a bit odd since the best-fit curve has a positive slope... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
Agape--Here is some additional analysis I don't think anyone else has done, including the company.
The blue line isolates CBL’s malls that are still currently in their portfolio. The red line represents the 27 malls CBL... login to read the rest | |
| 41 | |
Agape--I feel that selling the worst assets is consensus and is precisely what every other retail REIT is doing...flooding the market with supply of crappy B- and C+ mallss, strip centers, etc. CBL has mostly... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
Rickey--We got relatively good and granular data on ~35 mall sales from Jan. 1, 2016 - March 31, 2017 from a variety of brokers who worked on the deals. We then ran a regression on... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
Just to be clear on previous--the answer is no, though I may try in a more formal manner. The management team for a while has had what seems like a bit of a defeatist attitude...worn... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
"Any luck in convincing them to do it?" Stay tuned... :-) | |
| 29 | |
Shoobity--if mall sales comps don't matter, do you never use transaction comps in your valuation for any company? If ignoring the mall sales and only looking at cash flow, the stock arguably looks even better.... login to read the rest | |