2011 | 2012 | ||||||
Price: | 29.00 | EPS | $2.39 | $2.87 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 58 | P/E | 12.1x | 10.1x | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 1,675 | P/FCF | 12.6x | 10.4x | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 13 | EBIT | 222 | 266 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 1,662 | TEV/EBIT | 7.5x | 6.3x |
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SUMMARY: CRI - LONG
Carter's is a franchise apparel retailer and wholesaler with a dominant and growing market share, strong brands, solid operating history, and decent growth prospects selling at an attractive 9x 2013 EPS (7x 2013 EPS less net cash) with a few call options and a potential catalyst.
Currency: $m except per share data |
Jun10A |
|
Summary Financials |
FY08A |
FY09A |
FY10A |
FY11E |
FY12E |
FY13E |
Current Price |
$29.00 |
|
Revenues |
1,494.5 |
1,589.7 |
1,749.3 |
1,924.7 |
2,041.6 |
2,159.7 |
Shares Outstanding |
57.8 |
|
Growth % |
6.4% |
6.4% |
10.0% |
10.0% |
6.1% |
5.8% |
Market Capitalization |
1,675.1 |
|
EBIT |
147.9 |
207.3 |
243.3 |
222.0 |
265.5 |
306.6 |
- Cash & Short Term Investments |
248.9 |
|
Margin % |
9.9% |
13.0% |
13.9% |
11.5% |
13.0% |
14.2% |
+ Total Debt |
236.0 |
|
Earnings Power |
90.2 |
129.5 |
148.6 |
132.3 |
159.1 |
184.4 |
+ Pref. Equity |
- |
|
Margin % |
6.0% |
8.1% |
8.5% |
6.9% |
7.8% |
8.5% |
+ Total Minority Interest |
- |
|
EPS |
$1.34 |
$1.98 |
$2.48 |
$2.39 |
$2.87 |
$3.31 |
= Total Enterprise Value (TEV) |
1,662.2 |
|
Street EPS |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
$1.71 |
$2.13 |
$2.49 |
Book Value of Common Equity |
713.0 |
|
EV / EBITDA |
n/a |
n/a |
6.0 |
6.4 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
+ Pref. Equity |
- |
|
EV / EBIT |
n/a |
n/a |
6.8 |
7.5 |
6.3 |
5.4 |
+ Total Minority Interest |
- |
|
EV / Earnings Power |
n/a |
n/a |
11.2 |
12.6 |
10.4 |
9.0 |
+ Total Debt |
236.0 |
|
P/E |
n/a |
n/a |
11.7 |
12.1 |
10.1 |
8.8 |
= Total Capital |
949.0 |
|
P/E less Cash |
n/a |
n/a |
11.6 |
11.8 |
9.0 |
6.9 |
BUSINESS OVERVIEW:
INVESTMENT THESIS:
CRI is a LONG because:
THESIS POINTS:
CRI designs and sells apparel for 0 to 7 year-old kids under the Carter's and OshKosh brands
CRI generates over 80% of its revenues and 94% of its EBIT from the Carter's brand
Carter's dominates its core baby (0-2 year old) apparel market
Notes |
FY05A |
FY06A |
FY07A |
FY08A |
FY09A |
FY10A |
|
Carter's: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Core Target Market (0 - 2 year olds) |
|
8,250,401 |
8,404,345 |
8,580,996 |
8,562,694 |
8,378,713 |
8,131,019 |
Growth % |
|
n/a |
1.9% |
2.1% |
-0.2% |
-2.1% |
-3.0% |
Revenues |
|
921.5 |
1,011.0 |
1,081.0 |
1,165.3 |
1,251.9 |
1,402.6 |
Spend captured per child |
|
$111.70 |
$120.29 |
$125.97 |
$136.09 |
$149.41 |
$172.50 |
Growth % |
|
n/a |
7.7% |
4.7% |
8.0% |
9.8% |
15.5% |
Strong operating history: Trusted brand, focus on basics and strong management
Currency: $m |
FY97A |
FY98A |
FY99A |
FY00A |
FY01A |
FY02A |
FY03A |
FY04A |
FY05A |
FY06A |
FY07A |
FY08A |
FY09A |
FY10A |
CAGR |
Revenues |
363.0 |
408.2 |
406.2 |
463.4 |
518.5 |
579.5 |
703.8 |
823.1 |
1,121.4 |
1,333.9 |
1,404.0 |
1,494.0 |
1,589.7 |
1,749.3 |
12.9% |
Growth % |
17.5% |
12.5% |
-0.5% |
14.1% |
11.9% |
11.8% |
21.4% |
17.0% |
36.2% |
18.9% |
5.3% |
6.4% |
6.4% |
10.0% |
|
EBIT |
23.1 |
27.4 |
22.0 |
40.5 |
51.5 |
61.6 |
78.3 |
101.6 |
143.6 |
155.7 |
148.0 |
147.9 |
207.3 |
243.3 |
19.9% |
EBIT Margin % |
6.4% |
6.7% |
5.4% |
8.7% |
9.9% |
10.6% |
11.1% |
12.3% |
12.8% |
11.7% |
10.5% |
9.9% |
13.0% |
13.9% |
|
Growth % |
23.6% |
18.6% |
-19.7% |
84.1% |
27.2% |
19.6% |
27.1% |
29.8% |
41.3% |
8.4% |
-4.9% |
-0.1% |
40.2% |
17.4% |
|
Diluted EPS |
$0.07 |
$0.16 |
$0.04 |
$0.18 |
$0.28 |
$0.44 |
$0.61 |
$0.83 |
$0.78 |
$1.33 |
$(1.31) |
$1.34 |
$1.98 |
$2.48 |
31.6% |
Growth % |
n/a |
128.6% |
-75.0% |
350.0% |
55.6% |
57.1% |
38.6% |
36.1% |
-6.4% |
70.6% |
-198.9% |
-202.0% |
48.2% |
25.3% |
|
NOPAT @ 37.5% Tax Rate |
14.4 |
17.1 |
13.8 |
25.3 |
32.2 |
38.5 |
48.9 |
63.5 |
89.8 |
97.3 |
92.5 |
92.4 |
129.6 |
152.1 |
19.9% |
ROIC (Tangible) % |
n/a |
16.1% |
11.1% |
25.4% |
28.0% |
45.7% |
44.8% |
51.8% |
58.7% |
50.8% |
41.2% |
36.4% |
42.6% |
34.1% |
|
CRI has a solid balance sheet and stock buybacks could add up to ~7% of shares outstanding
Currency: $m |
Notes |
FY08A |
FY09A |
FY10A |
|
Cash Flow from Operations |
|
52.0 |
181.1 |
188.8 |
85.9 |
Capital Expenditures |
|
(21.9) |
(34.9) |
(33.6) |
(39.8) |
Free Cash Flow |
|
30.1 |
146.2 |
155.2 |
46.1 |
Debt Repayment |
|
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(98.5) |
Stock Buybacks (Net Issuances) |
|
(54.5) |
(32.7) |
5.1 |
(41.2) |
Other |
|
8.3 |
3.5 |
15.8 |
6.1 |
Net Cash |
|
(19.6) |
113.5 |
172.6 |
(87.6) |
The stock is cheap because cotton price inflation will hurt margins in the short-term; however, the margin impact is likely to be less than consensus fears
Currency: $m |
Before |
% of total |
Inflation % |
Now |
% of total |
Raw Cotton |
0.40 |
11.4% |
110.0% |
0.84 |
18.9% |
Other Fabrics |
0.90 |
25.7% |
20.0% |
1.08 |
24.3% |
Manufacturing Costs |
1.60 |
45.7% |
13.0% |
1.81 |
40.7% |
Other Product Costs |
0.60 |
17.1% |
19.0% |
0.71 |
16.1% |
Total Product Cost |
3.50 |
100.0% |
26.9% |
4.44 |
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin Scenarios: |
Original |
Case 1 |
Case 2 |
Case 3 |
Case 4 |
Sales Price |
$6.00 |
$6.30 |
$6.60 |
$6.90 |
$7.20 |
% increase |
0.0% |
5.0% |
10.0% |
15.0% |
20.0% |
New Product Cost |
$4.44 |
$4.44 |
$4.44 |
$4.44 |
$4.44 |
Gross Profit |
$1.56 |
$1.86 |
$2.16 |
$2.46 |
$2.76 |
Gross Margin % |
26.0% |
29.5% |
32.7% |
35.6% |
38.3% |
Potential Catalyst and Some Call Options
Potential Catalyst:
Call Options:
CRI offers a probability-weighted upside of 67% with a price target of $48 per share
Forward Multiple |
2013 Net Cash/Shr |
Probability |
2012 Price Target |
Return % |
||
Case 1: Recession |
$2.07 |
8 |
$4.60 |
5.0% |
$48.3 |
66.6% |
Case 2: Cut-back in Consumer Spending |
$2.46 |
10 |
$5.14 |
20.0% |
||
Case 3: Cotton Price Correction in 2012 |
$3.31 |
14 |
$6.19 |
40.0% |
||
Case 4: Case 3 + eCommerce Growth |
$3.46 |
16 |
$6.28 |
30.0% |
||
Case 5: Case 4 + OshKosh Turnaround |
$3.80 |
20 |
$6.74 |
5.0% |
Investment Risks Discussion - Cotton, Private Label and Macro
Product Cost Inflation:
Secular shift towards private label products will continue
Will consumers continue to spend in a $4 gas environment?
APPENDIX:
Retail Expansion: Carter's could grow its branded retail store base by 2-3x
Carter's Store Economics (estimates):
Currency: $m |
Notes |
New Store |
Same-Store |
Sales |
|
1,299,057 |
1,800,369 |
Costs |
|
1,169,151 |
1,476,303 |
EBIT |
|
129,906 |
324,066 |
EBIT Margin % |
|
10.0% |
18.0% |
Income Tax @ 37.5% |
|
48,715 |
121,525 |
NOPAT |
A |
81,191 |
202,542 |
NOPAT Margin % |
|
6.3% |
11.3% |
New Store Opening Costs: |
|
|
|
Build-out |
|
250,000 |
250,000 |
Inventory |
|
150,000 |
150,000 |
Total Initial Investment |
B |
400,000 |
400,000 |
ROIC % |
A/B |
20.3% |
50.6% |
Quarterly Comps:
Comps: |
OshKosh |
PLCE |
GYMB |
|
Quarterly: |
|
|
|
|
Q107 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
Q207 |
0.8% |
-9.7% |
-1.0% |
5.0% |
Q307 |
4.1% |
-5.0% |
1.0% |
8.0% |
Q407 |
9.0% |
-3.0% |
7.0% |
10.0% |
Q108 |
12.3% |
-6.6% |
6.0% |
4.0% |
Q208 |
17.3% |
-0.9% |
10.0% |
-1.0% |
Q308 |
6.1% |
13.2% |
4.0% |
-2.0% |
Q408 |
4.1% |
3.6% |
-5.0% |
-2.0% |
Q109 |
5.2% |
11.1% |
1.0% |
-10.0% |
Q209 |
8.1% |
2.6% |
-8.5% |
-1.0% |
Q309 |
6.1% |
-2.1% |
-1.6% |
-4.0% |
Q409 |
6.4% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-2.0% |
Q110 |
8.1% |
3.5% |
-0.5% |
2.0% |
Q210 |
-4.3% |
-4.9% |
4.7% |
-3.0% |
Q310 |
1.4% |
0.6% |
-5.7% |
-4.0% |
Q410 |
4.7% |
-6.0% |
-5.9% |
-2.0% |
Q111 |
1.2% |
-9.8% |
-3.2% |
n/a |
Opportunity for Retail Store Expansion:
Number of Stores: |
Mar31A |
OshKosh |
180 |
Carter's |
306 |
Children's Place |
1,005 |
Gymborree |
1,049 |
Kohl's |
1,058 |
JC Penney |
1,109 |
Target |
1,743 |
Walmart |
3,765 |
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